Fitch Affirms Tunisia at CCC-, Expects Growth to Fall to 0.9%

A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
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Fitch Affirms Tunisia at CCC-, Expects Growth to Fall to 0.9%

A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)

Fitch Ratings on Saturday affirmed Tunisia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at "CCC-," also expecting growth to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2023 from 2.4% in 2022.
The agency said Tunisia's 'CCC-' rating reflects the heightened uncertainty around the government's ability to meet its large budget financing needs - revised up in the absence of progress on key subsidy reforms - and increasing debt maturities.
It added that the affirmation balances Fitch’s revised assumption that an IMF program is unlikely to be reached in 2024 with the better than expected resilience of international reserves despite the limited availability of external funding.
Also, Fitch expects GDP growth to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2023 from 2.4% in 2022, as a result of the sharp contraction of the rain-fed wheat production, impacted by rain shortfalls.
“We project a mild recovery to 1.5% average in 2024-2025, supported by a favorable base effect,” it said.
The agency expects growth will remain constrained by the high sovereign risk impacting the business environment and investor sentiment, high inflation (expected to average 9.3% in 2023), and the increasing crowding-out impact on the private sector from the government's high financing needs.
Fitch also assumed that fiscal financing needs to be consistently at or over 16% of GDP (over $8 billion) per year in 2023-2025 compared with 14% (about $6 billion) in 2022, and well above the 2015-2019 average of 9%.
This, it said, results from persistent wide budget deficits, and increasing domestic and external debt maturities, at about 10% of GDP per year in 2024-2025.
The agency also noted that domestic maturities are pushed up by the government's increasing reliance on shorter-term domestic financing to compensate for scarce external financing. External maturities are higher, partly because of upcoming Eurobond repayments (850 million euro in February 2024, and $1 billion in January 2025).
Therefore, Fitch said it expects external financing to reach about $2 billion by year-end.
“We do not expect Tunisia to access an IMF program in 2024, constraining external financing prospects."
In its baseline assumptions, Fitch also said the Tunisian government would need to raise the equivalent of 12% of GDP in domestic financing in 2023-2024 to cover the financing gap.
“We see this as a stretch to the domestic market capacity to absorb the public sector financing needs. Exposure to the public sector already represents more than 20% of the banking system's total assets, reaching up to 40% for some public banks,” it said.
The agency then noted that the sector has limited liquidity and banks' ability to fund the government increasingly relies on central bank purchases of government debt on the secondary market.



Saudi's flynas Strikes Deal for Additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s

Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
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Saudi's flynas Strikes Deal for Additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s

Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)
Saudi's flynas strikes deal for additional Airbus A320neos, 15 A330s (flynas)

flynas, Saudi Arabia’s leading low-cost carrier, has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Airbus for 75 A320neo family aircraft and 15 A330-900. This strategic agreement will expand the airline's capacity, range and enhance its overall fleet capabilities.
Signed during Farnborough International Airshow in the presence of President of the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) of Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz bin Abdullah Al-Duailej, Chairman of the Board of NAS Holding Ayed Al Jeaid, flynas Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director Bandar Almohanna, and Airbus Chief Executive Officer, Commercial Aircraft, Christian Scherer, Airbus said on its website.
The new aircraft will join the carrier’s all Airbus fleet serving international, domestic and regional routes. The new A330-900 aircraft will boast a two-class configuration, accommodating up to 400 passengers.
"We are excited to further strengthen our long-standing partnership with Airbus," said Bander Almohanna, CEO and Managing Director of flynas. "The A320neo Family provides exceptional operational performance and environmental benefits, allowing us to offer unique, low-cost travel experiences. Additionally, the A330neowill enhance our long-haul capabilities with its advanced technology and efficiency while supporting our growth plans and Saudi Arabia’s pilgrim program."
Airbus Chief Executive Officer, Commercial Aircraft, Christian Scherer said, "We are delighted to expand our partnership with flynas through this significant milestone for both A320neo and A330-900 aircraft. The A330neo will allow flynas to further grow into widebody markets by building on the A320, benefiting from Airbus’ unique commonality. Both aircraft types offer flynas the perfect versatility and economics to expand into new markets while offering their passengers the latest cabin experience and comfort. We look forward to continuing our successful collaboration with flynas as they embark on this exciting new chapter."
The addition of the A330-900 aircraft will support flynas' ambitious growth plans. The airline anticipates significant operational efficiency gains by combining the new widebody aircraft with its existing A320neo fleet. The A330-900 offers increased capacity and range at unrivaled seat costs, ensuring flynas can compete effectively in the growing regional market, a key focus area for the airline.
The A330neo delivers unbeatable operating economics, powered by the latest-generation Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 engines, featuring new wings and a range of aerodynamic innovations resulting in a 25 percent reduction in fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions compared to previous generation competitor aircraft. The A330neo is capable of flying 8,150 nm / 15,094 km non-stop, providing ultimate comfort with more passenger space, a new lighting system, latest in-flight entertainment systems and full connectivity throughout the cabin.
As with all Airbus aircraft, the A330 family is already able to operate with up to 50% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The manufacturer is targeting to have its aircraft up to 100% SAF capable by 2030.