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Fitch Affirms Tunisia at CCC-, Expects Growth to Fall to 0.9%

A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
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Fitch Affirms Tunisia at CCC-, Expects Growth to Fall to 0.9%

A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)
A square in the Tunisian capital (Reuters)

Fitch Ratings on Saturday affirmed Tunisia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at "CCC-," also expecting growth to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2023 from 2.4% in 2022.
The agency said Tunisia's 'CCC-' rating reflects the heightened uncertainty around the government's ability to meet its large budget financing needs - revised up in the absence of progress on key subsidy reforms - and increasing debt maturities.
It added that the affirmation balances Fitch’s revised assumption that an IMF program is unlikely to be reached in 2024 with the better than expected resilience of international reserves despite the limited availability of external funding.
Also, Fitch expects GDP growth to fall to 0.9% of GDP in 2023 from 2.4% in 2022, as a result of the sharp contraction of the rain-fed wheat production, impacted by rain shortfalls.
“We project a mild recovery to 1.5% average in 2024-2025, supported by a favorable base effect,” it said.
The agency expects growth will remain constrained by the high sovereign risk impacting the business environment and investor sentiment, high inflation (expected to average 9.3% in 2023), and the increasing crowding-out impact on the private sector from the government's high financing needs.
Fitch also assumed that fiscal financing needs to be consistently at or over 16% of GDP (over $8 billion) per year in 2023-2025 compared with 14% (about $6 billion) in 2022, and well above the 2015-2019 average of 9%.
This, it said, results from persistent wide budget deficits, and increasing domestic and external debt maturities, at about 10% of GDP per year in 2024-2025.
The agency also noted that domestic maturities are pushed up by the government's increasing reliance on shorter-term domestic financing to compensate for scarce external financing. External maturities are higher, partly because of upcoming Eurobond repayments (850 million euro in February 2024, and $1 billion in January 2025).
Therefore, Fitch said it expects external financing to reach about $2 billion by year-end.
“We do not expect Tunisia to access an IMF program in 2024, constraining external financing prospects."
In its baseline assumptions, Fitch also said the Tunisian government would need to raise the equivalent of 12% of GDP in domestic financing in 2023-2024 to cover the financing gap.
“We see this as a stretch to the domestic market capacity to absorb the public sector financing needs. Exposure to the public sector already represents more than 20% of the banking system's total assets, reaching up to 40% for some public banks,” it said.
The agency then noted that the sector has limited liquidity and banks' ability to fund the government increasingly relies on central bank purchases of government debt on the secondary market.

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Revenue Growth, Improved Operational Efficiency Boost Profitability of Saudi Telecom Companies

A man monitors the movement of stocks on the Saudi Tadawul index. (AFP)
A man monitors the movement of stocks on the Saudi Tadawul index. (AFP)
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Revenue Growth, Improved Operational Efficiency Boost Profitability of Saudi Telecom Companies

A man monitors the movement of stocks on the Saudi Tadawul index. (AFP)
A man monitors the movement of stocks on the Saudi Tadawul index. (AFP)

Telecommunications companies listed on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) achieved a 12.46 percent growth in their net profits, which reached SAR 4.07 billion ($1.09 billion) during the second quarter of 2024, compared to SAR 3.62 billion ($965 million) during the same period last year.

They also recorded a 4.76 percent growth in revenues during the same quarter, after achieving sales worth more than SAR 26.18 billion ($7 billion), compared to SAR 24.99 billion ($6.66 billion) in the same quarter of 2023.

The growth in the revenues and net profitability is the result of several factors, including the increase in sales volume and revenues, especially in the business sector and fifth generation services, as well as the decrease in operating expenses and the focus on improving operational efficiency, controlling costs, and moving towards investment in infrastructure.

The sector comprises four companies, three of which conclude their fiscal year in December: Saudi Telecom Company (STC), Mobily, and Zain Saudi Arabia. The fiscal year of Etihad Atheeb Telecommunications Company (GO) ends on March 31.

According to its financial results announced on Tadawul, Etihad Etisalat Company (Mobily) achieved a 33 percent growth rate of profits, bringing its profits to SAR 661 million by the end of the second quarter of 2024, compared to SAR 497 million during the same period in 2023. The company also achieved a 4.59 percent growth in revenues to reach SAR 4.47 billion, compared to SAR 4.27 billion in the same quarter of last year.

The Saudi Telecom Company achieved the highest net profits among the sector’s companies, at about SAR 3.304 billion in the second quarter of 2024, compared to SAR 3.008 billion in the same quarter of 2023. The company registered a growth of 4.52 percent in revenues.

On the other hand, the revenues of the Saudi Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Saudi Arabia) increased by about 6.69 percent, as it recorded SAR 2.55 billion during the second quarter of 2024, compared to SAR 2.39 billion in the same period last year.

Commenting on the quarterly results of the sector’s companies, and the varying net profits, the head of asset management at Rassanah Capital, Thamer Al-Saeed, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Saudi Telecom Company remains the sector leader in terms of customer base expansion.

He also noted the continued efforts of Mobily and Zain to offer many diverse products and other services.

Financial advisor at the Arab Trader Mohammed Al-Maymouni said the financial results of telecom sector companies have maintained a steady growth, up to 12 percent, adding that Mobily witnessed strong progress compared to the rest of the companies, despite the great competition which affected its revenues.

He added that Zain was moving at a good pace and its revenues have improved during the second quarter of 2024. However, its profits were affected by an increase in the financing cost by SAR 26.5 million riyals and a rise in interest, while net income declined significantly compared to the previous year, during which the company made exceptional returns.