China’s Economy Forecast to Slow Sharply in 2024, World Bank Says, Calling Recovery ‘Fragile’ 

A worker sweeps a walkway in a temple during a snowfall in Beijing on December 14, 2023. (AFP)
A worker sweeps a walkway in a temple during a snowfall in Beijing on December 14, 2023. (AFP)
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China’s Economy Forecast to Slow Sharply in 2024, World Bank Says, Calling Recovery ‘Fragile’ 

A worker sweeps a walkway in a temple during a snowfall in Beijing on December 14, 2023. (AFP)
A worker sweeps a walkway in a temple during a snowfall in Beijing on December 14, 2023. (AFP)

China's economy grew at a 5.2% pace in the first three quarters of the year and showed signs of improvement in November, with factory output and retail sales rising, the government said Friday.

But investments in property sank 9.4%, the National Bureau of Statistics said, indicating the real estate sector has yet to recover from a crisis that has led dozens of developers to default on hundreds of billions of dollars in debts.

The world’s second-largest economy is still contending from the setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, among other shocks, dogged by weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China’s exports, high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence.

The 10.1% jump in retail sales in November from a year earlier, up from a 7.6% jump in October, showed a glimmer of hope given that sluggish consumer spending has been a key factor hindering a stronger recovery.

But it's unclear if it will be sustained. A survey of factory purchasing managers, called the purchasing manager index, or PMI, showed a slightly bigger contraction in factory activity compared with October, a fact that statistics bureau spokesperson Liu Aihua said was partly due to the fact that some industries were entering their usual off season after holiday production rushes.

But Liu added that “at the same time there is insufficient market demand.”

“Looking to the future, the internal and external environment facing our country’s development is still complex and severe,” Liu told reporters in Beijing. “To further promote economic recovery, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges.”

China's economy has the advantages of a vast market of 1.4 billion people and an advanced industrial base, he said.

Friday's report followed an update Thursday from the World Bank that forecast that 5.2% annual growth this year will slow to 4.5% next year and to 4.3% in 2025.

China’s economy has yoyoed in the past few years, with growth ranging from 2.2% in 2020 to 8.4% in 2021 and 3% last year. Stringent limits on travel and other activities during the pandemic hit manufacturing and transport. Job losses due to those disruptions and to a crackdown on the technology sector, combined with a downturn in the property industry, have led many Chinese to tighten their purse strings.

Pockets of strength have kept the economy growing at a pace matching the government's target for about 5% growth this year, helped by robust exports of industrial machinery, mobile phones and vehicles.

Factory output rose 6.6% in November compared with a year earlier, the statistics bureau reported. That was the strongest growth since September 2022.

Most of the jobs created during China's recovery have been low-skilled work in service industries with low pay, it noted. Chinese also are cautious given the threadbare nature of social safety nets and the fact that the population is rapidly aging, putting a heavier burden for supporting elders on younger generations.

“The outlook is subject to considerable downside risks,” the report said, adding that a prolonged downturn in the real estate sector would have wider ramifications and would further squeeze already strained local government finances, as meanwhile softer global demand is a risk for manufacturers.

China's leaders addressed such issues in their annual Central Economic Work Conference earlier this week, which set priorities for the coming year, but state media reports on the gathering did not provide specifics of policies.

Real estate investment has fallen by 18% in the past two years, the World Bank report said. It said the value of new property sales fell 5% in January-October from a year earlier while new property starts dropped more than 25%. The slowdown was worst in smaller cities that account for about 80% of the market in the country of 1.4 billion people.

To sustain solid growth China needs a recovery in consumer spending, which took a nosedive during the omicron wave of COVID-19 and has remained below par since late 2021, the report said.

It noted that gains from more investments in construction in a country that already has ample modern roads, ports, railways and housing projects — and also massive overcapacity in cement, steel and many other manufacturing sectors will give the economy less of a boost than could be achieved with more consumer spending.



Colombia Joins Belt and Road Initiative as China Courts Latin America 

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
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Colombia Joins Belt and Road Initiative as China Courts Latin America 

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)
Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Colombian President Gustavo Petro at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 14 May 2025. (EPA /Xinhua / Huang Jingwen)

Colombia formally agreed on Wednesday to join China's vast Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, as Beijing draws Latin America closer in a bid to counter the United States.

Latin America has emerged as a key battleground in US President Donald Trump's confrontations with China, and the region is coming under pressure from Washington to choose a side.

China has surpassed the United States as the biggest trading partner of Brazil, Peru, Chile and other Latin American nations, and two-thirds of countries there have signed up to Chinese leader Xi Jinping's Belt and Road infrastructure drive.

On the sidelines of a major gathering of regional leaders in Beijing on Wednesday, Colombia became the latest country to join the massive global initiative.

Colombia's foreign ministry hailed the agreement as a "historic step that opens up new opportunities for investment, technological cooperation, and sustainable development for both countries".

And after a meeting with Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Xi urged the countries to take the opportunity of Colombia formally joining the "Belt and Road Initiative family" to enhance their cooperation, Beijing's state media said.

Posting a video of the signing to social media platform X, Petro wrote that "the history of our foreign relations is changing".

"From now on, Colombia will interact with the entire world on a footing of equality and freedom," he wrote.

The BRI is a central pillar of Xi's bid to expand China's economic and political clout overseas.

For more than a decade, it has provided investment for infrastructure and other large-scale projects around the world, offering Beijing political and economic leverage in return.

Last year, Xi inaugurated Latin America's first Beijing-funded port in Chancay, Peru -- a symbol of the Asian superpower's growing influence on the continent.

- 'Defenders of free trade' -

This week's China-CELAC Forum in Beijing has seen China cast itself as the defender of the multilateral order and the backer of the Global South, with Xi pledging on Monday $9.2 billion in credit towards development.

That pledge was part of a broad set of initiatives aimed at deepening cooperation, including on infrastructure and clean energy.

Beijing will also cooperate in counterterrorism and fighting transnational organized crime, Xi said, as well as enhancing exchanges such as scholarships and training programs.

During a meeting with Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Wednesday, Xi said that the "resurgence of unilateralism and protectionism is severely impacting the international economic and trade order," according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

"As staunch defenders of multilateralism and free trade, China and Chile should strengthen multilateral coordination and jointly safeguard the common interests of the Global South," Xi told Boric.

Also in attendance at the China-CELAC forum was Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who arrived in Beijing on Saturday for a five-day state visit.

Addressing delegates, Lula said his region did not "want to repeat history and start a new Cold War", adding: "Our goal is to be an asset to the multilateral order for a global good".

In talks with Lula on Tuesday, Xi said the two countries should "strengthen cooperation" and together "oppose unilateralism", according to Chinese state media.

The United States and China have faced off in Latin America, including over the Panama Canal, which Trump has for months vowed to reclaim from alleged Chinese influence.

Washington considered a Hong Kong company's operation of ports at both ends of the interoceanic waterway to be a threat to its national security, but Beijing has dismissed the claims.

And China's market regulator is looking into a deal by Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison to offload 43 ports in 23 countries -- including its two on the Panama Canal -- to a US-led consortium.

The world's two largest economies are two of the top users of the canal, through which five percent of all global shipping passes.