Trafigura Conducts Risk Assessment in Red Sea Following Tanker Attack

Smoke rises from the British oil tanker Marlin Luanda as it transits the Gulf of Aden on January 27, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke rises from the British oil tanker Marlin Luanda as it transits the Gulf of Aden on January 27, 2024. (AFP)
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Trafigura Conducts Risk Assessment in Red Sea Following Tanker Attack

Smoke rises from the British oil tanker Marlin Luanda as it transits the Gulf of Aden on January 27, 2024. (AFP)
Smoke rises from the British oil tanker Marlin Luanda as it transits the Gulf of Aden on January 27, 2024. (AFP)

Commodities trader Trafigura said on Saturday it was assessing the security risks of further Red Sea voyages after firefighters put out a blaze on a tanker attacked by Yemen's Houthi group a day earlier.

The tanker was carrying Russian naphtha purchased below the price cap in line with G7 sanctions, a Trafigura spokesperson said on Friday.

"No further vessels operating on behalf of Trafigura are currently transiting the Gulf of Aden, and we continue to assess carefully the risks involved in any voyage, including in respect of security and safety of the crew, together with shipowners and customers," a Trafigura statement said.

This implies a potential consideration of navigating through the Cape of Good Hope.

Some shipping companies have suspended transits through the Red Sea, which is accessed from the Gulf of Aden, and taken much longer, costlier journeys around Africa to avoid being attacked by Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthi group.

QatarEnergy, the world's second-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, stopped sending tankers via the Red Sea earlier this month, citing security concerns.

Over several hours early on Saturday the Marlin Luanda's crew battled a blaze in one cargo tank on the vessel's starboard side. By Saturday afternoon, the blaze was extinguished and all crew were safe.

"The vessel is now sailing towards a safe harbor," Trafigura said, adding that the firefighting effort had been supported by Indian, US, and French navy vessels.

The US military said a US Navy ship and other vessels provided assistance after the Marlin Luanda was hit by a Houthi anti-ship missile.

The Houthis began launching waves of exploding drones and missiles at vessels on Nov. 19 in response to Israel's military operations in Gaza. The Houthi attacks have primarily targeted container vessels moving through the Red Sea. Many fuel tankers have kept using the route.

The Marshall Islands-flagged Marlin Luanda issued a distress call on Friday and reported damage, US Central Command said in a post on X, formerly Twitter. The USS Carney and other coalition ships were providing assistance to the tanker, it said.

This follows reports from companies such as Kuwaiti oil majors BP and Shell that have paused transits through the Red Sea as strikes on commercial vessels by the Houthis have stymied trade between Europe and Asia.

Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization Arsenio Dominguez has stressed that the IMO supports freedom of navigation and calls for calm in the Red Sea region.

During his meeting with Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) Admiral Ossama Rabie on Thursday, the IMO secretary-general explained that the current situation in the Red Sea region imposes many challenges on the global trade movement, the maritime transport market, the Suez Canal, and the ports in the region.

He affirmed that navigation in the canal is still open to everyone “especially in light of the logistical and security challenges faced by the vessels that go around the Cape of Good Hope,” noting that the “Cape route is deemed unsustainable for navigation traffic as it lacks essential services.”



IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
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IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.

Georgieva said the US economy was doing "quite a bit better" than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.

With inflation moving closer to the US Federal Reserve's target, and data showing a stable labor market, the Fed could afford to wait for more data before undertaking further interest rate cuts, she said. Overall, interest rates were expected to stay "somewhat higher for quite some time," she said.

The IMF will release an update to its global outlook on Jan. 17, just days before Trump takes office. Georgieva's comments are the first indication this year of the IMF's evolving global outlook, but she gave no detailed projections.

In October, the IMF raised its 2024 economic growth forecasts for the US, Brazil and Britain but cut them for China, Japan and the euro zone, citing risks from potential new trade wars, armed conflicts and tight monetary policy.

At the time, it left its forecast for 2024 global growth unchanged at the 3.2% projected in July, and lowered its global forecast for 3.2% growth in 2025 by one-tenth of a percentage point, warning that global medium-term growth would fade to 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend.

"Not surprisingly, given the size and role of the US economy, there is keen interest globally in the policy directions of the incoming administration, in particular on tariffs, taxes, deregulation and government efficiency," Georgieva said.

"This uncertainty is particularly high around the path for trade policy going forward, adding to the headwinds facing the global economy, especially for countries and regions that are more integrated in global supply chains, medium-sized economies, (and) Asia as a region."

Georgieva said it was "very unusual" that this uncertainty was expressed in higher long-term interest rates even though short-term interest rates had gone down, a trend not seen in recent history.

The IMF saw divergent trends in different regions, with growth expected to stall somewhat in the European Union and to weaken "a little" in India, while Brazil was facing somewhat higher inflation, Georgieva said.

In China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, the IMF was seeing deflationary pressure and ongoing challenges with domestic demand, she said.

Lower-income countries, despite reform efforts, were in a position where any new shocks would hit them "quite negatively," she said.

Georgieva said it was notable that higher interest rates needed to combat inflation had not pushed the global economy into recession, but headline inflation developments were divergent, which meant central bankers needed to carefully monitor local data.

The strong US dollar could potentially result in higher funding costs for emerging market economies and especially low-income countries, she said.

Most countries needed to cut fiscal spending after high outlays during the COVID pandemic and adopt reforms to boost growth in a durable way, she said, adding that in most cases this could be done while protecting their growth prospects.

"Countries cannot borrow their way out. They can only grow out of this problem," she said, noting that the medium-growth prospects for the world were the lowest seen in decades.