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Fitch: Oman Budget Signals Slower Debt Reduction, Increased Social Spending

Aerial photo of the Sultanate of Oman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Aerial photo of the Sultanate of Oman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Fitch: Oman Budget Signals Slower Debt Reduction, Increased Social Spending

Aerial photo of the Sultanate of Oman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Aerial photo of the Sultanate of Oman. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Fitch Ratings Agency reported on Tuesday that the Sultanate of Oman's budget for the current fiscal year signals that the authorities will continue repaying government debt. This helps bolster the state's resilience in the event of potential shocks.

However, Fitch noted that the trajectory of debt reduction in 2024 is expected to be tempered by an uptick in social spending.

“We now forecast the surplus to fall to 1.8% of GDP in 2024, from an estimated 3.3% in 2023, based on the budget data and our latest oil price assumptions. In our December sovereign data comparator, we had projected the surplus would remain broadly stable at 2.1% of GDP in 2024, from 2.2% in 2023,” said Fitch.

“The smaller surplus in 2024 will partly reflect a projected 1% drop in oil output, in line with the recent reduction of the country’s OPEC+ production quota, as well as a modest weakening in international oil prices, which will weigh on revenues.

The budget projects non-oil revenue growth to be driven by stronger economic activity, with no significant new revenue-raising measures being announced,” according to Fitch.

The overall effect on Oman’s credit metrics should be broadly in line with the assumptions we made when we upgraded the sovereign’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BB', with a Stable Outlook, in September 2023.

The government plans to widen the social safety net, which will add about 1% of GDP to spending and was reflected in our assessments in September. Fuel subsidy costs will remain considerable, at about 0.7% of GDP in 2024, though we expect the government would scrap the subsidy should global energy prices fall.

The authorities also plan to keep public capex broadly stable in 2024.

“Overall, we expect spending to remain prudent, with key current expenditure items generally growing in line with nominal GDP.

The budget gives no indication of significant backtracking on recent fiscal consolidation measures, and we expect further modest progress on electricity price reform. Meanwhile, the public finances will benefit from slightly lower debt service costs in 2024 following liabilities management operations that the government has conducted since 2022.”

The government will use part of the surplus to continue debt repayment. Oman’s use of the revenue windfall from high oil prices to reduce debt and spread maturities was a driver of our decision to upgrade its ratings in September.

“However, we expect the pace of debt reduction to ease in 2024, with government debt/GDP falling to around 33% in 2024 from 36% in 2023. This will be driven not only by the smaller surplus, but also by the authorities’ plans to channel some of the surplus to Oman Future Fund to support economic development.”

The report concluded, "Economic diversification efforts will face significant hurdles and it will take time for us to assess their record. In the meantime, Oman’s public finances will remain vulnerable to global oil price shocks – albeit less than they were before the Covid-19 pandemic.

External debt maturities remain significant at USD6 billion per year for the government and state-owned enterprises combined, although less burdensome than in recent years.”

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US Economy Grew at Solid 3% Rate Last Quarter, Government Says in Final Estimate

FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
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US Economy Grew at Solid 3% Rate Last Quarter, Government Says in Final Estimate

FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)
FILE - The New York Stock Exchange, at rear, is shown on Sept. 24, 2024, in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan, File)

The American economy expanded at a healthy 3% annual pace from April through June, boosted by strong consumer spending and business investment, the government said Thursday, leaving its previous estimate unchanged.
The Commerce Department reported that the nation's gross domestic product — the nation's total output of goods and services — picked up sharply in the second quarter from the tepid 1.6% annual rate in the first three months of the year, The Associated Press reported.
Consumer spending, the primary driver of the economy, grew last quarter at a 2.8% pace, down slightly from the 2.9% rate the government had previously estimated. Business investment was also solid: It increased at a vigorous 8.3% annual pace last quarter, led by a 9.8% rise in investment in equipment.
The final GDP estimate for the April-June quarter included figures showing that inflation continues to ease, to just above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The central bank’s favored inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE — rose at a 2.5% annual rate last quarter, down from 3% in the first quarter of the year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation grew at a 2.8% pace, down from 3.7% from January through March.
The US economy, the world's biggest, displayed remarkable resilience in the face of the 11 interest rate hikes the Fed carried out in 2022 and 2023 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades. Since peaking at 9.1% in mid-2022, annual inflation as measured by the consumer price index has tumbled to 2.5%.
Despite the surge in borrowing rates, the economy kept growing and employers kept hiring. Still, the job market has shown signs of weakness in recent months. From June through August, America's employers added an average of just 116,000 jobs a month, the lowest three-month average since mid-2020, when the COVID pandemic had paralyzed the economy. The unemployment rate has ticked up from a half-century low 3.4% last year to 4.2%, still relatively low.
Last week, responding to the steady drop in inflation and growing evidence of a more sluggish job market, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by an unusually large half-point. The rate cut, the Fed’s first in more than four years, reflected its new focus on shoring up the job market now that inflation has largely been tamed.
Some other barometers of the economy still look healthy. Americans last month increased their spending at retailers, for example, suggesting that consumers are still able and willing to spend more despite the cumulative impact of three years of excess inflation and high borrowing rates. The nation’s industrial production rebounded. The pace of single-family-home construction rose sharply from the pace a year earlier.
And this month, consumer sentiment rose for a third straight month, according to preliminary figures from the University of Michigan. The brighter outlook was driven by “more favorable prices as perceived by consumers” for cars, appliances, furniture and other long-lasting goods.
A category within GDP that measures the economy’s underlying strength rose at a healthy 2.7% annual rate, though that was down from 2.9% in the first quarter. This category includes consumer spending and private investment but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.
Though the Fed now believes inflation is largely defeated, many Americans remain upset with still-high prices for groceries, gas, rent and other necessities. Former President Donald Trump blames the Biden-Harris administration for sparking an inflationary surge. Vice President Kamala Harris, in turn, has charged that Trump’s promise to slap tariffs on all imports would raise prices for consumers even further.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department also issued revisions to previous GDP estimates. From 2018 through 2023, growth was mostly higher — an average annual rate of 2.3%, up from a previously reported 2.1% — largely because of upward revisions to consumer spending. The revisions showed that GDP grew 2.9% last year, up from the 2.5% previously reported.
Thursday’s report was the government’s third and final estimate of GDP growth for the April-June quarter. It will release its initial estimate of July-September GDP growth on Oct. 30.