IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
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IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)

The IMF and World Bank warned on Monday that the Gaza war and the related attacks on shipping through the Red Sea pose threats to the global economy.

The Israel-Hamas war raging since October has already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said the International Monetary Fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Its knock-on effects could impact the world the longer the fighting drags on, Georgieva told the World Governments Summit, an annual gathering of business and political leaders in Dubai.

"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.

"Right now we see a risk of spillover in the Suez Canal," she said, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias have attacked Red Sea shipping leading to the crucial maritime passage.

The Houthis say they are targeting what they consider Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, pushing some cargo carriers to take longer and more expensive routes to avoid attacks.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned late last month that the volume of commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal had fallen more than 40 percent in the previous two months.

Georgieva said that if there are other "consequences in terms of where the fighting goes, it could be more problematic for the world as a whole".

On a personal note, she added that "as a woman, as a mother, grandmother... I pray for peace".

The Gaza Strip has been under intense Israeli assault for over four months, in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hamas's unprecedented attack resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel vowed to destroy the militant group and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 28,340 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite the war-related uncertainties, Georgieva said the IMF is "very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming of".

"I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going for the last year now," she said, when asked about interest rates being cut in leading economies.

Also speaking at the summit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that "what's going on Gaza, but also the challenges of Ukraine... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook.

"When you add these variables to what is already turning out to be probably the lowest growth of the last 55 years.... that's something we have to keep a close eye on," he said.



US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
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US Stocks Fall as Iran Angst Lifts Oil Prices

A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A screen displays a stock chart at a work station on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, April 6, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Wall Street stocks retreated early Thursday as worries over US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices while markets digested mixed results from Walmart.

US oil futures rose to a six-month high as Iran's atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said no country can deprive the Islamic republic of its right to nuclear enrichment, after US President Donald Trump again hinted at military action following talks in Geneva.

"We'd call this an undercurrent of concern that is bubbling up in oil prices," Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said of the "geopolitical angst."

About 10 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6 percent at 49,379.46, AFP reported.

The broad-based S&P 500 fell 0.5 percent to 6,849.35, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index declined 0.6 percent to 22,621.38.

Among individual companies, Walmart rose 1.7 percent after reporting solid results but offering forecasts that missed analyst expectations.

Shares of the retail giant initially fell, but pushed higher after Walmart executives talked up artificial intelligence investments on a conference call with analysts.

The US trade deficit in goods expanded to a new record in 2025, government data showed, despite sweeping tariffs that Trump imposed during his first year back in the White House.


Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
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Gold Advances on US–Iran Tensions as Markets Weigh Fed Policy Path

UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo
UK gold bars and gold Sovereign coins are displayed at Baird & Co in Hatton Garden in London, Britain, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Hiba Kola/File Photo

Gold prices extended gains on Thursday after rising more than 2% in the previous session, as lingering tensions between the United States and Iran prompted a flight to safety, while investors evaluated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,989.09 per ounce by 1227 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery held steady at $5,008.60.

"Geopolitical concerns are front and centre with reports that, if the US were to take military action against Iran, it could go on for several weeks," said Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Nemo.money, Reuters reported.

Some progress was made during Iran talks this week in Geneva but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday.

FED LARGELY UNITED

Top US national security advisers met in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss Iran and were told all US military forces deployed to the region should be in place by mid-March.

Meanwhile, the Fed's January minutes showed it largely united on holding interest rates steady, but divided over what comes next, with "several" open to rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, while others were inclined to support further cuts if inflation recedes.

The weekly jobless claims data, due later in the day, and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide further clues on the central bank's policy trajectory.

Markets currently expect this year's first interest rate cut to be in June, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $77.87 per ounce after climbing more than 5% on Wednesday.

Silver is "supported by tight supply and low COMEX stock levels ahead of the delivery period of the March contract. However, given the extent of the historic correction earlier this month, silver is not back on safer ground until it trades back above $86," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Spot platinum fell 0.6% to $2,059.55 per ounce, while palladium lost 1.7% to $1,686.47.


Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
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Oil Prices Extend Gains on Concerns of Potential US-Iran Conflict

FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery is pictured in West Lake, Louisiana, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Bachman/File Photo

Oil prices rose on Thursday as the US and Iran attempted to ease a standoff in talks over Tehran's nuclear program while both sides heightened military activity in the key oil-producing region.

Brent futures climbed 23 cents, or 0.3% to $70.58 a barrel by 0735 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to trade at $65.44 a barrel.

Both benchmarks settled more than 4% higher on Wednesday, posting their highest settlements since January 30, as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions in the event of ‌a conflict.

"Oil prices are ‌rallying as the market becomes increasingly concerned over the potential ‌for ⁠imminent US action ⁠against Iran," said ING analysts in a Thursday note.

Iranian state media reported the country had shut down the Strait of Hormuz for a few hours on Tuesday, without making clear whether the waterway had fully reopened. About 20% ⁠of the world's oil supply passes through the waterway.

"Tensions between Washington ‌and Tehran remain high, but the prevailing view ‌is that full-scale armed conflict is unlikely, prompting a wait-and-see approach," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of ‌Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.

"US President Donald Trump does not ‌want a sharp rise in crude prices, and even if military action occurs, it would likely be limited to short-term air strikes," Kikukawa added.

A degree of progress was made during Iran talks in Geneva this week but distance remained on some issues, the White House said on Wednesday, ‌adding that it expected Tehran to come back with more details in a couple of weeks.

Iran issued a notice to ⁠airmen (NOTAM) that ⁠it plans rocket launches in areas across its south on Thursday from 0330 GMT to 1330 GMT, according to the US Federal Aviation Administration website.

At the same time, the US has deployed warships near Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance saying Washington was weighing whether to continue diplomatic engagement with Tehran or pursue "another option".

Meanwhile, two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended on Wednesday without a breakthrough, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accusing Moscow of stalling US-mediated efforts to end the four-year-old war.

US crude and gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, contrary to expectations in a Reuters poll that crude stocks would rise by 2.1 million barrels in the week to February 13.

Official US oil inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration are due on Thursday.