IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
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IMF, World Bank Warn Gaza War, Red Sea Attacks Imperil Global Economy

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)
Managing Director of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva attends a session at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 12 February 2024. (EPA)

The IMF and World Bank warned on Monday that the Gaza war and the related attacks on shipping through the Red Sea pose threats to the global economy.

The Israel-Hamas war raging since October has already hit the Middle East and North Africa region's economy, said the International Monetary Fund's managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

Its knock-on effects could impact the world the longer the fighting drags on, Georgieva told the World Governments Summit, an annual gathering of business and political leaders in Dubai.

"I fear most a longevity of the conflict because, if it goes on and on, the risk of spillover goes up," she said.

"Right now we see a risk of spillover in the Suez Canal," she said, as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militias have attacked Red Sea shipping leading to the crucial maritime passage.

The Houthis say they are targeting what they consider Israeli-linked shipping in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, pushing some cargo carriers to take longer and more expensive routes to avoid attacks.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development warned late last month that the volume of commercial traffic passing through the Suez Canal had fallen more than 40 percent in the previous two months.

Georgieva said that if there are other "consequences in terms of where the fighting goes, it could be more problematic for the world as a whole".

On a personal note, she added that "as a woman, as a mother, grandmother... I pray for peace".

The Gaza Strip has been under intense Israeli assault for over four months, in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel.

Hamas's unprecedented attack resulted in the deaths of about 1,160 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel vowed to destroy the militant group and launched air strikes and a ground offensive that have killed at least 28,340 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Despite the war-related uncertainties, Georgieva said the IMF is "very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming of".

"I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going for the last year now," she said, when asked about interest rates being cut in leading economies.

Also speaking at the summit, World Bank President Ajay Banga said that "what's going on Gaza, but also the challenges of Ukraine... and the Red Sea" are among the top challenges to the global economic outlook.

"When you add these variables to what is already turning out to be probably the lowest growth of the last 55 years.... that's something we have to keep a close eye on," he said.



Egypt Completes Trial Run of New Suez Canal Channel Extension

An Egyptian navy vessel see in the Suez Canal, March 30, 2021. (AFP/Getty Images)
An Egyptian navy vessel see in the Suez Canal, March 30, 2021. (AFP/Getty Images)
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Egypt Completes Trial Run of New Suez Canal Channel Extension

An Egyptian navy vessel see in the Suez Canal, March 30, 2021. (AFP/Getty Images)
An Egyptian navy vessel see in the Suez Canal, March 30, 2021. (AFP/Getty Images)

Egypt said on Saturday it had successfully tested a new 10 km channel near the southern end of the Suez Canal.

The Suez Canal Authority said in a statement that during a trial run two ships passed through a new stretch of the canal's two-way section without incident.

Following the 2021 grounding of the container ship Ever Given that blocked the vital waterway for six days, Egypt accelerated plans to extend the second channel in the southern reaches of the canal and widen the existing channel.

Its revenue from the waterway, the gateway to the shortest route between Europe and Asia, has nevertheless tumbled since Yemen's Houthi militias began attacking ships in the Red Sea in November 2023 in what they say is solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Thursday that due to "regional challenges", the country had lost approximately $7 billion in Suez Canal revenue in 2024, marking more than a 60% drop from 2023.

According to the Suez Canal Authority, the latest expansion extends the total length of the canal's two-way section to 82 km from a previous 72 km. The canal is 193 km long in total.

"This expansion will boost the canal's capacity by an additional 6 to 8 ships daily and enhance its ability to handle potential emergencies," the Suez Canal Authority said in its statement.

Earlier this year, Egypt said that it was considering an additional expansion project separate to the 10 km channel extension.