G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
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G20 Warns of Global Economy Challenges, Geopolitical Tension

The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)
The meeting aims to review global economic developments at a time characterized by growth slowdown and mounting pressures resulting from record debt burdens. (G20 website)

Group of 20 finance leaders meeting in Brazil this week are expected to make only a passing reference in their closing statement to regional conflicts, according to a draft version seen by Reuters, due to deep divisions over wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday called on allies to move forward urgently to unlock the value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to help Ukraine.

"Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced," with faster-than-expected disinflation and more growth-friendly fiscal consolidation underpinning growth, the draft said.

"Among the downside risks to the global economy are [wars and] escalating conflicts, geoeconomic fragmentation, rising protectionism, and trade routes disruptions," the draft communique said.

The reference to "wars" in brackets reflects efforts to reach a consensus on the final language, said a person familiar with the matter.

G20 finance officials are expected to set aside geopolitics and focus on global economic issues as they gather in Sao Paulo this week.

Brazil's coordinator of the finance track at G20, Tatiana Rosito, said on Tuesday that the group is moving towards a short communique that reflects Brazilian priorities.

In the draft communique, the G20 finance leaders gave an optimistic view on the outlook for price pressures. Inflation has receded in most economies, they said, thanks in part to "appropriate" monetary policies, easing supply chain bottlenecks and moderating commodity prices.

The draft also said the G20 group reaffirms their existing exchange-rate commitment, which warns against excess volatility and volatile currency moves as undesirable for economic growth.

Meanwhile, Yellen said Israel has agreed to resume tax revenue transfers to the Palestinian Authority to fund basic services and bolster the West Bank economy. She called on Israel to allow commerce to resume there for the sake of its own economy and that of the Palestinians.

In the remarks, Yellen said she also urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a recent letter to reinstate work permits for Palestinians and reduce barriers to commerce within the West Bank.

"These actions are vital for the economic well-being of Palestinians and Israelis alike," Yellen said.

"We continue to explore options for strengthening the West Bank economy" following an executive order issued by President Joe Biden earlier this month, Yellen added.

Yellen said Washington supported the World Bank’s commitments to emergency food security assistance in Gaza and economic support for the West Bank, and other ongoing loan programs by regional development banks and the International Monetary Fund in neighboring Egypt and Jordan.

She said Washington had not seen a significant impact of the conflict on the global economy but would continue to monitor the situation closely.

She noted that Washington had also led efforts to counter the financing of Hamas and responded to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.



US Applications for Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level in Nearly a Year

A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
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US Applications for Jobless Claims Fall to 201,000, Lowest Level in Nearly a Year

A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)
A help wanted sign is displayed at a restaurant in Chicago, Ill., Nov. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh, File)

US applications for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest level in nearly a year last week, pointing to a still healthy labor market with historically low layoffs.

The Labor Department on Wednesday said that applications for jobless benefits fell to 201,000 for the week ending January 4, down from the previous week's 211,000. This week's figure is the lowest since February of last year.

The four-week average of claims, which evens out the week-to-week ups and downs, fell by 10,250 to 213,000.

The overall numbers receiving unemployment benefits for the week of December 28 rose to 1.87 million, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week, according to The AP.

The US job market has cooled from the red-hot stretch of 2021-2023 when the economy was rebounding from COVID-19 lockdowns.

Through November, employers added an average of 180,000 jobs a month in 2024, down from 251,000 in 2023, 377,000 in 2022 and a record 604,000 in 2021. Still, even the diminished job creation is solid and a sign of resilience in the face of high interest rates.

When the Labor Department releases hiring numbers for December on Friday, they’re expected to show that employers added 160,000 jobs last month.

On Tuesday, the government reported that US job openings rose unexpectedly in November, showing companies are still looking for workers even as the labor market has loosened. Openings rose to 8.1 million in November, the most since February and up from 7.8 million in October,

The weekly jobless claims numbers are a proxy for layoffs, and those have remained below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate is at a modest 4.2%, though that is up from a half century low 3.4% reached in 2023.

To fight inflation that hit four-decade highs two and a half years ago, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023. Inflation came down — from 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.7% in November, allowing the Fed to start cutting rates. But progress on inflation has stalled in recent months, and year-over-year consumer price increases are stuck above the Fed’s 2% target.

In December, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate for the third time in 2024, but the central bank’s policymakers signaled that they’re likely to be more cautious about future rate cuts. They projected just two in 2025, down from the four they had envisioned in September.