Oil Gains on Expectations for Higher Demand and as Middle East Concerns Rise

File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
TT

Oil Gains on Expectations for Higher Demand and as Middle East Concerns Rise

File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, underpinned by signs that demand may improve China and the US, the world's biggest oil consuming nations, and growing concerns of a widening conflict in the Middle East that could affect supply from the region.
Brent futures for June delivery rose 41 cents to $87.83 a barrel by 0440 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May rose 41 cents to $84.12 a barrel, after reaching its highest close since Oct. 27 in the previous session.
"The bullish catalysts for oil prices continue to pile up, with stronger-than-expected economic conditions in China and the US offering a more optimistic demand outlook, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to heat up with the involvement of Iran," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong in an email.
Manufacturing activity in March in China expanded for the first time in six months and in the US for the first time in 1-1/2 years, which should translate to rising oil demand this year. China is the world's largest crude importer and second-largest consumer while the US is the biggest consumer.
In the Middle East, an Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Syria killed seven military advisors, among them three senior commanders, marking an escalation in the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which is supported by Iran. A widening of the conflict that has stretched for nearly half a year to include Israel directly fighting Iran has sparked concerns about impacts on oil supply.
"To date, the market hasn't been worried about supply disruptions, with the war remaining contained. Iran’s involvement could see its oil supply under threat," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, will hold an online meeting of its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Wednesday to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
TT

Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.