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Oil Gains on Expectations for Higher Demand and as Middle East Concerns Rise

File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
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Oil Gains on Expectations for Higher Demand and as Middle East Concerns Rise

File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP
File photo: An oil pumpjack in a field on March 24, 2024 in Grandfalls, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images/AFP

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, underpinned by signs that demand may improve China and the US, the world's biggest oil consuming nations, and growing concerns of a widening conflict in the Middle East that could affect supply from the region.
Brent futures for June delivery rose 41 cents to $87.83 a barrel by 0440 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May rose 41 cents to $84.12 a barrel, after reaching its highest close since Oct. 27 in the previous session.
"The bullish catalysts for oil prices continue to pile up, with stronger-than-expected economic conditions in China and the US offering a more optimistic demand outlook, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to heat up with the involvement of Iran," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong in an email.
Manufacturing activity in March in China expanded for the first time in six months and in the US for the first time in 1-1/2 years, which should translate to rising oil demand this year. China is the world's largest crude importer and second-largest consumer while the US is the biggest consumer.
In the Middle East, an Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Syria killed seven military advisors, among them three senior commanders, marking an escalation in the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which is supported by Iran. A widening of the conflict that has stretched for nearly half a year to include Israel directly fighting Iran has sparked concerns about impacts on oil supply.
"To date, the market hasn't been worried about supply disruptions, with the war remaining contained. Iran’s involvement could see its oil supply under threat," ANZ analysts wrote in a note.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, will hold an online meeting of its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee on Wednesday to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts.

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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russia's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate at 21%, holding off on further increases as it struggles to snuff out inflation fueled by the government's spending on the war against Ukraine.
The decision comes amid criticism from influential business figures, including tycoons close to the Kremlin, that high rates are putting the brakes on business activity and the economy.
According to The Associated Press, the central bank said in a statement that credit conditions had tightened “more than envisaged” by the October rate hike that brought the benchmark to its current record level.
The bank said it would assess the need for any future increases at its next meeting and that inflation was expected to fall to an annual 4% next year from its current 9.5%
Factories are running three shifts making everything from vehicles to clothing for the military, while a labor shortage is driving up wages and fat enlistment bonuses are putting more rubles in people's bank accounts to spend. All that is driving up prices.
On top of that, the weakening Russian ruble raises the prices of imported goods like cars and consumer electronics from China, which has become Russia's biggest trade partner since Western sanctions disrupted economic relations with Europe and the US.
High rates can dampen inflation but also make it more expensive for businesses to get the credit they need to operate and invest.
Critics of the central bank rates and its Governor Elvira Nabiullina have included Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-controlled defense and technology conglomerate Rostec, and steel magnate Alexei Mordashov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened his annual news conference on Thursday by saying the economy is on track to grow by nearly 4% this year and that while inflation is “an alarming sign," wages have risen at the same rate and that "on the whole, this situation is stable and secure.”
He acknowledged there had been criticism of the central bank, saying that “some experts believe that the Central Bank could have been more effective and could have started using certain instruments earlier.”
Nabiullina said in November that while the economy is growing, “the rise in prices for the vast majority of goods and services shows that demand is outrunning the expansion of economic capacity and the economy’s potential.”
Russia's military spending is enabled by oil exports, which have shifted from Europe to new customers in India and China who aren't observing sanctions such as a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil sales.