OPEC+ Keeps Output Policy Steady as Oil Nears $90 a Barrel

The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. (Reuters)
The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. (Reuters)
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OPEC+ Keeps Output Policy Steady as Oil Nears $90 a Barrel

The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. (Reuters)
The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is seen at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, Austria June 19, 2018. (Reuters)

A meeting of senior OPEC+ ministers kept oil output policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts, a decision that spurred international crude prices to their highest in five months at nearly $90 a barrel.

A ministerial committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, met online on Wednesday to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts.

Oil has rallied this year, driven by tighter supply, attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and war in the Middle East. Brent crude rose to trade near $90 on Wednesday, its highest since late October 2023, after the meeting ended.

"OPEC+ decided to stick with oil supply cuts for the first half of the year, keeping global markets tight and potentially sending prices higher," said Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen.

OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, last month agreed to extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of June to support the market.

In a statement following Wednesday's meeting, OPEC+ noted the "high conformity" of members with pledged oil output cuts, although it said some countries had promised to improve their adherence and report on progress.

The panel welcomed pledges from Iraq and Kazakhstan to achieve full conformity as well as to compensate for overproduction, and Russia's announcement that its cuts in the second quarter will be based on production not exports, the statement said.

"Participating countries with outstanding overproduced volumes for the months of January, February and March 2024 will submit their detailed compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by 30 April 2024," the statement said.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday Russia was in full compliance with its commitments to reduce oil supplies as part of the OPEC+ deal.

Data from S&P Commodity Insights, known as Platts, showed the group overproduced by a net 275,000 bpd in January and by 175,000 bpd in February. Platts is one of the secondary sources used by OPEC+ to assess its members' production.

Gabon, Iraq and Kazakhstan were the main members that produced above their quotas for the two months, the survey said.

Iraq last month promised to lower exports to make up for pumping above its OPEC target, a pledge that would cut shipments by 130,000 bpd from February.

When the voluntary curbs expire at the end of June, the total cuts by OPEC+ are set to decline to 3.66 million bpd as agreed in earlier steps starting in 2022.

The JMMC brings together leading OPEC+ countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.

The panel scheduled its next meeting for June 1, the same day as the next full OPEC+ meeting to decide policy.



China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
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China's Industrial Profits Narrow Decline but 2024 Likely Worst Year in Decades

An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer
An employee works at a carbon fibre production line inside a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China October 27, 2018. REUTERS/Stringer

China's industrial profits fell at a slower clip in November, official data showed on Friday, but the annual decline in earnings this year is expected to be the worst in over two decades due to persistently soft domestic consumption.

The world's second-largest economy has been struggling to mount a strong post-pandemic revival, as business and household appetites for spending and investment remain subdued amid a prolonged housing downturn and fresh trade risks from the incoming US administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Industrial profits fell 7.3% in November from the same month last year, following a 10% drop in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, Reuters reported.

The narrower decline in November pointed to improved profits as recent economic stimulus measures start to have an effect, said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

The profit numbers were also in line with a slower decline in factory-gate prices in November. The producer price index fell 2.5% year-on-year versus the 2.9% drop in October.

The World Bank on Thursday revised up its 2024 economic growth forecast for China slightly to 4.9% from its June forecast of 4.8%.

Still, in the first 11 months of 2024, industrial profits declined 4.7%, deepening a 4.3% slide in the January-October period, reflecting still tepid private demand in the Chinese economy.

China's full-year industrial profits are set to show their biggest drop in percentage terms since 2011. However, when smaller companies are included under a previous compilation methodology, this year's profit decline is expected to the worst since at least 2000.

A spate of economic indicators released this month pointed to mixed results, with industrial output accelerating in November while new home prices fell at the slowest pace in 17 months.

The industrial sector is undergoing an uneven recovery amid insufficient demand, Zhou said, pointing to difficulties facing real estate and some related industries as evidence of this malaise.

China's leaders vowed in a key policy meeting this month to raise the deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to maintain a stable economic growth rate. The government also recently pledged to step up direct fiscal support to consumers and boosting social security.

Beijing has agreed to issue a record $411 billion special treasury bonds next year, Reuters reported.

Profits at state-owned firms fell 8.4% in the first 11 months, foreign firms posted a 0.8% decline and private-sector companies recorded a 1% fall, according to a breakdown of the NBS data.

Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.7 million) from their main operations.