Oil Steady as Middle East Worries Offset US Crude Stock Buildup

A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
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Oil Steady as Middle East Worries Offset US Crude Stock Buildup

A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)
A pump jack lifts oil out of a well during a sandstorm in Midland, Texas, US, April 13, 2018. Picture taken April 13, 2018. (Reuters)

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday after two straight days of losses, as the deadlock in Gaza ceasefire talks renewed uncertainty about the security of supplies from the Middle East, offsetting a bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories.

Brent crude futures were up marginally at $89.49 per barrel at 0330 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 8 cents to $85.31.

Prices for both benchmarks remain down around 1.8% on the end of last week despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered by the prospect of Israel's war in Gaza lasting longer, and drawing in more countries.

"Some of the heat has come out of rally in crude oil in the early part of this week on hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza and higher US inventories," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Singapore.

Hamas said on Tuesday that an Israeli proposal on a ceasefire in their war in Gaza did not meet the demands of Palestinian militant factions, but it would study the offer further and deliver its response to mediators.

If the conflict continues, it risks the involvement of other countries in the region, particularly Hamas backer Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Meanwhile, US crude stocks climbed last week by 3.03 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Analysts had estimated that stocks would rise by about 2.4 million barrels.

Official US government inventory data is due at 1430 GMT.

However, all the risks remain to the upside, IG's Sycamore said.

"Anything from a cooler-than-expected US CPI tonight to another Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure to a response from Iran after Israel killed two of its generals in Syria last week is more than capable of re-igniting the uptrend," he added.

Separately, the government raised its forecast for US crude oil output, expecting an increase of 280,000 bpd to 13.21 million bpd in 2024, up 20,000 bpd from an earlier forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

However, EIA said it expects Brent crude prices to average $88.55 a barrel in 2024, up from a previous forecast of $87 a barrel.

On Tuesday, both Brent and WTI fell more than 1%, as Israel-Hamas ceasefire discussions in Cairo continued.

Türkiye said it would restrict exports of various products, including jet fuel, to Israel until there is a ceasefire. Israel said it would respond with its own curbs.



IATA: Air Cargo Demand Up 2.2% Despite Trade Disruptions

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) logo is seen at the International Tourism Trade Fair ITB in Berlin, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch 
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) logo is seen at the International Tourism Trade Fair ITB in Berlin, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch 
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IATA: Air Cargo Demand Up 2.2% Despite Trade Disruptions

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) logo is seen at the International Tourism Trade Fair ITB in Berlin, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch 
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) logo is seen at the International Tourism Trade Fair ITB in Berlin, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch 

Total air cargo demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK), rose by 2.2% compared to May 2024 levels, up 3.0% for international operations, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Also, capacity, measured in available cargo ton-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 2% compared to May 2024, up 2.6% for international operations.

The Association said several factors in the operating environment should be noted, including year-on-year world industrial production, which rose 2.6% in April 2025.

Meanwhile, air cargo volumes grew 6.8% over the same period, outpacing global goods trade growth of 3.8%.

IATA said jet fuel prices in May 2025 were 18.8% lower than the previous year and 4.3% below the previous month.

It noted that global manufacturing contracted in May, with the PMI falling to 49.1, below the 50 mark that signals growth.

New export orders also remained in negative territory at 48, reflecting pressure from recent US trade policy changes, the Association revealed.

Global manufacturing output, measured by the PMI, dropped below the 50 threshold to 49.1 in May, for the first time in 2025.

This, IATA said, was a 6.9% year-on-year decrease and a 2.8% drop compared to April 2025, indicating a slight weakening in global manufacturing production compared to April 2025.

Meanwhile, output declined in May, new export orders grew 1.6 index points from April, to 48. New export orders have been directly affected by the US trade policy changes, which have reshaped global demand dynamics and impacted trade flows.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said the rise of cargo demand globally by 2.2% in May is encouraging news as a 10.7% drop in traffic on the Asia to North America trade lane illustrated the dampening effect of shifting US trade policies.

“Even as these policies evolve, already we can see the air cargo sector’s well-tested resilience helping shippers to accommodate supply chain needs to flexibly hold back, re-route or accelerate deliveries,” he said.

Meanwhile, carriers in the Middle East continued to build momentum, expanding for the second consecutive month. The region recorded a 3.6% year-on-year rise and capacity increased by 4.2%.

Asia Pacific posted the strongest growth, up 8.3% year-on-year while capacity increased by 5.7%.

In return, North American carriers saw a -5.8% year-on-year decrease in growth for air cargo in May, the slowest growth of all regions. Capacity decreased by -3.2%.

European carriers saw 1.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 1.5%.

Also, Latin American carriers saw a 3.1% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in May. Capacity increased 3.5%.

As for African airlines, they saw a 2.1% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in May. Capacity increased by 2.7%.

Trade Lane Growth

A significant decrease in the Asia-North America trade lane was expected and realized as the effect of front-loading faded and changes to the de-minimis exemption on small package shipments were enforced.

As cargo flows reorganized, several route areas responded with surprising growth, IATA said.