ECB Holds Rates at Record Highs, Signals Upcoming Cut

FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
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ECB Holds Rates at Record Highs, Signals Upcoming Cut

FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The building of the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen amid a fog in Frankfurt, Germany December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

The European Central Bank kept interest rates at record highs on Thursday but sent an even clearer signal that it may be preparing to cut them as euro zone inflation continues to fall.

The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency kept its deposit rate at 4.0%, where it has been since September as part of a 1-1/2-year effort to rein in prices.

But, with inflation now close to the ECB's 2% target, bank lending at a standstill and the economy barely growing, the ECB dropped fresh hints about a possible cut at its next meeting.

"If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction," the ECB said, Reuters reported.

ECB policymakers, including those who typically favour higher rates, have been lining up behind a rate reduction at their June 6 meeting, provided key indicators including wage growth and underlying inflation continue to moderate.

But that decision may now be complicated by uncertaintywhether the Federal Reserve will be able cut its own rates in June as US inflation stays stubbornly above its goal.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to be asked about the central bank's plans for June and the possibility of a further cut in July at her regular news conference at 1245 GMT.

With Thursday's decision, the ECB also left the interest rate on its daily and weekly loans for banks at 4.75% and 4.50% respectively.

Banks have barely tapped these auctions for years as they still have plenty of cash from last decade's money-printing programs.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.