Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Fall After Iran Attack as Market Draws Down Risk Premium 

A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)
A complex of pipes used for the export of crude oil in a dock that is part of the Ecopetrol refinery, is seen in Cartagena, Colombia April 12, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices fell at Asia's open on Monday, as market participants dialed back risk premiums following Iran's attack on Israel late on Saturday which the Israeli government said caused limited damage.

Brent futures for June delivery fell 24 cents to $90.21 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for May delivery were down 38 cents at $85.28 a barrel by 1256 GMT.

The attack involving more than 300 missiles and drones was the first on Israel from another country in more than three decades. It had raised concerns about a broader regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East.

But the attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defense system. Israel, which is at war with Iran-backed Hamas fighters in Gaza, has neither confirmed nor denied it struck the consulate.

While Israeli officials said the country's war cabinet was in favor of retaliation, the US said it would not take part in any offensive against Iran. Global powers, other Arab nations and the UN secretary general have issued calls for restraint.

"The Iranian retaliatory missile and drone attack on Israel yesterday morning appears sufficient in size to revenge the killing of Iranian military personnel in Syria without being damaging enough to trigger a further escalation in hostilities at this point," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note.

Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of a retaliatory attack by Iran, touching their highest levels since October.

But prices still ended the week down about 1% after the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for oil demand growth this year.

Despite the limited damage sustained by Israel, analysts were widely expecting at least a short-lived rally in prices this morning.

The attack marks an "unprecedented and dangerous development in an already volatile region," said Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon.

Analysts said more significant and longer-lasting price effects from the escalation would require a material disruption to supply, such as constraints on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz near Iran.

So far, the Israel-Hamas conflict has had little tangible impact on oil supply.

A "less certain path to Fed rate cuts" because of persistent US inflation also weighed on prices, Sycamore said. "However, in the medium term, ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe means that all the risks remain to the topside in crude oil towards $90."



Oil Prices Reset as Supply Uncertainty Reigns

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Reset as Supply Uncertainty Reigns

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil lost early gains on Tuesday and prices were back near their previous close in the face of uncertainty over how supply will be affected by Ukraine-Russia peace talks, international trade tariffs and OPEC+ crude output.

Brent crude futures were up only 1 cent at $75.23 per barrel by 1242 GMT, retreating from $76.07 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 51 cents from Friday's close to $71.25 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Monday because of the US Presidents' Day holiday, Reuters reported.

"Each rally seems to find willing sellers, whether or not it is because of neighbouring technical numbers that keep movement trapped or notions of a war settlement topped with tariffs is hard to tell," said John Evans of oil broker PVM.

"Day trading and short-term flows are ruling the fate of oil prices at present."

US and Russian officials held more than four hours of talks in Riyadh on Tuesday, their first on ending the war in Ukraine. But Moscow made a new demand: that NATO cancel its 2008 promise on Ukraine membership.

Ukraine was not at the talks and has said that no peace deals can be made on its behalf.

If a deal is reached, Washington and its allies could abandon sanctions throttling the supply of Russian oil to the world.

Oil prices were bolstered on Tuesday by a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian pipeline that pumps about 1% of global crude supply.

The damage could reduce oil transit volumes from Kazakhstan by about 30% and take up to two months to repair, Russian oil transport company Transneft said.

Another question hanging over oil markets is whether OPEC+ is considering a delay to monthly supply increases scheduled in April.

Russian state media said the group's members were not looking to hold off from the increases after Bloomberg News reported that OPEC+ members were exploring a possible delay.