Oil Surges, Equities Sink as Iran Blasts Fan MidEast Escalation Fears

FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the central station gas processing plant at Rumaila oilfield in Basra, Iraq, November 5, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the central station gas processing plant at Rumaila oilfield in Basra, Iraq, November 5, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
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Oil Surges, Equities Sink as Iran Blasts Fan MidEast Escalation Fears

FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the central station gas processing plant at Rumaila oilfield in Basra, Iraq, November 5, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view shows the central station gas processing plant at Rumaila oilfield in Basra, Iraq, November 5, 2020. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo

Oil prices rallied and equities sank Friday as reports said explosions had been heard in Iran and Syria, fueling fears of an escalation of the Middle East crisis after last weekend's missile attack on Israel by Tehran.
The reports followed another batch of data indicating the US economy remained in rude health and compounded concerns that the Federal Reserve will hold off cutting interest rates this year or even hike them again, The Associated Press said.
Traders have been on edge since Saturday's barrage by Iran, which Israel's army chief General Herzi Halevi warned would be met with a response.
Leaders in Tehran said the strike was a legitimate response to a deadly attack on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus that it blames on Israel.
Iran state TV said three blasts had been heard near central Isfahan, the site of a key nuclear facility. Tehran had earlier said it could revise its nuclear policies if Israel threatened to attack its sites.
The Mehr news agency also said that "flights to Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz, and airports in the west, northwest and southwest have been suspended".
Israel's military said sirens sounded in the country's north.
The news sent shivers through markets, with both main oil contracts surging more than three percent on worries about supplies from the crude-rich region, while fears of a regional conflict saw equities tumble.
Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei each plunged more than three percent, while Hong Kong and Sydney were off more than one percent.
There were also losses in Shanghai, Singapore, Wellington, Manila and Jakarta.
The rush for safety also saw the yen rally against the dollar and gold jump more than one percent past $2,400, while US Treasuries climbed.
"It is now clear that the escalating shadow warfare between Israel and Iran... has finally ignited the powder keg in the Middle East, and we have moved decisively out of the shadows and into the glaring light of open conflict," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
"It should be noted that this is not a staged response to an Iranian drone attack but rather an indication that we have entered a new phase of this conflict, one that is likely to have significant and far-reaching consequences for Middle East peace and least of all risk markets."
The mood among traders was already downbeat as they contemplated the prospect of the Fed staying pat on interest rates this year following data showing jobless claims came in below expectations while a gauge of business activity hit a two-year high.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic said inflation is "too high" and he felt there was no need to cut borrowing costs until later in the year.
"I'm comfortable being patient," he added.
New York Fed chief John Williams and governor Michelle Bowman also said they saw fewer reductions than expected, if at all, this year.
Michael Landsberg, of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, said: "We are firmly in the camp of no rate cuts in 2024.
"We believe investors should prepare for a higher-for-longer regime when it comes to both inflation and interest rates."



Iraq Exports 2.6 million bpd from Southern Ports

An oil field in the Dibs area on the outskirts of Kirkuk, Iraq (Reuters)
An oil field in the Dibs area on the outskirts of Kirkuk, Iraq (Reuters)
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Iraq Exports 2.6 million bpd from Southern Ports

An oil field in the Dibs area on the outskirts of Kirkuk, Iraq (Reuters)
An oil field in the Dibs area on the outskirts of Kirkuk, Iraq (Reuters)

Iraq is exporting around 2.6 million barrels of oil per day from its southern ports so far in September and producing more than 3 million bpd from its southern oilfields, Bassem Abdul Karim, head of Iraq's Basra Oil Company, said on Thursday.

Abdul Karim, speaking at an energy conference in Basra, added that Iraq is transporting around 250,000 bpd of Basra crude to Kirkuk for exports via Ceyhan in Türkiye.

On September 16, Iraq launched a pilot operation to transport crude oil by road from its southern oilfields to a Kirkuk storage facility in an effort to boost supplies to the northern export system and potentially increase shipments through Türkiye's Ceyhan port.

The initiative forms part of broader Iraqi efforts to increase flows through the northern export route after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Iraq's shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, its main export route.


Oil Gains on Little Sign of Progress in US-Iran Talks

Gas prices at a Shell gas station above $6 a gallon for regular gasoline and $8 a gallon for diesel are displayed across from a US flag outside of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
Gas prices at a Shell gas station above $6 a gallon for regular gasoline and $8 a gallon for diesel are displayed across from a US flag outside of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
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Oil Gains on Little Sign of Progress in US-Iran Talks

Gas prices at a Shell gas station above $6 a gallon for regular gasoline and $8 a gallon for diesel are displayed across from a US flag outside of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)
Gas prices at a Shell gas station above $6 a gallon for regular gasoline and $8 a gallon for diesel are displayed across from a US flag outside of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP)

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran showed little sign of progress, while investors focused on uncertainty about a potential US ban on diesel exports.

Brent crude futures were up $1.63, or 1.58%, at $104.71 a barrel at 1200 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.34, or 1.49%, at $93.53 a barrel.

Brent rose to as high as $106.50 earlier in the day, following reports suggesting Iran gave the US one week to meet its publicly stated demands, such as lifting the US naval blockade, Reuters reported.

Iran and the US remain divided over how to end their conflict, but diplomacy must continue, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Wednesday, after Iran's president told the UN General Assembly that Tehran would never surrender to US pressure.

The official said Tehran was reviewing Washington's response to its peace proposals, which prioritise lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

European diesel futures came off all-time highs on Thursday amid uncertainty about a potential US ban on diesel exports. A White House official on Wednesday denied a report that said the US is preparing a 90-day ban of diesel exports.

A European Commission spokesperson said on Thursday that the EU was concerned about the reported US plans, as such a move would risk a negative impact on both sides.

Analysts and market watchers have warned a US diesel export ban would do little to ease high energy prices and could worsen global supplies and further disrupt economies.

The physical market for oil is nowhere near a fully normalised situation, said Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova.

"Brent retains a larger geopolitical and sea-route premium because international crude is more directly exposed to Middle East and Hormuz disruption, while WTI benefits more from relatively insulated US supply," Sachdeva added.

US distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, fell 428,000 barrels to 107.4 million barrels last week, Energy Information Administration data showed.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels last week, though analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 641,000-barrel draw.


Saudi Aramco Chief: Any Interruption Can be Fixed 'Within Days'

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks during a press conference. Reuters file photo
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks during a press conference. Reuters file photo
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Saudi Aramco Chief: Any Interruption Can be Fixed 'Within Days'

Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks during a press conference. Reuters file photo
Aramco President and CEO Amin Nasser speaks during a press conference. Reuters file photo

Saudi Aramco can restore disrupted operations within days and is looking at building alternative oil export routes, its President and CEO Amin Nasser said.

Nasser told Nikkei Asia in Tokyo on Thursday that Aramco was studying "a fourth and a fifth route" for crude oil exports in addition to its three primary routes.

Nasser added that the company is considering expanding overseas storage capacity, including in Japan, to strengthen its ability to withstand disruptions.

He stated that Aramco's operations are built with abundant flexibilities in place to continue serving its customers even during disruptions.

He added that observers often assumed Aramco had only two major export pathways, through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea after using the East-West pipeline. In reality, Nasser said, the company could also access the 320km Sumed pipeline, which carries crude from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean through Egypt.

"People think about interruptions in Hormuz, interruptions in Bab-el Mandeb, [but] we never stopped. We continue to supply our customers," he said. "The only thing you do [is] shift more vessels, one way or the other. ... We do have this multiple optionality that allows us to meet our customers' demand."

The chief executive said that the company was also keen to add more optionality in its oil supplies, including building up additional storage capacities abroad to meet short-term disruptions, as well as "a fourth and a fifth route" for exporting crude.

The company was in discussions with the relevant ministry and its partners in Japan on expanding its storage capacity in the country, as well as "doing the engineering and the feasibility and all of the work that is required" for the additional export routes, Nasser said.