World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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World Bank Explains to Asharq Al-Awsat Saudi Growth Forecast Surge for 2025

Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The World Bank is forecasting a 5.9% growth for Saudi Arabia’s economy in 2025, surpassing previous estimates. This surge is fueled by heightened non-oil activities and anticipated increases in oil prices, as explained by Roberta Gatti, Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank.

The bank now expects the Kingdom’s economy to expand by 5.9% next year, a significant increase from its earlier prediction of 4.2%. It also forecasts a 4.8% growth in the non-oil private sector in Saudi Arabia this year.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Gatti explained that the higher forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economy next year relies on two main factors:

Firstly, boosting non-oil activities through loose fiscal policy, large investments (especially public ones), and strong private spending, all while keeping inflation low with generous subsidies.

Secondly, expecting a significant rise in oil production in 2025 due to current trends and extending oil production cuts until mid-2024, leading to a 5.9% GDP growth.

Economic Shocks and Debt Impact

Discussing a report about conflict and debt in the MENA region, Gatti highlighted how conflict exacerbates major weaknesses in the region, notably the surge in debt compared to GDP.

Over the past decade, most regional economies saw their debt levels rise, a trend accelerated by the pandemic.

By 2023, debt had climbed to 88% of GDP in oil-importing countries, up from 81% in 2013. Importantly, debt levels are much higher for oil-importing nations, averaging 88% of GDP in 2023 compared to 34% for oil-exporting ones.

Gatti stressed the importance of transparency in debt management, particularly for oil-importing nations. She also underscored the need to address off-budget expenditures, which are not officially recorded.

She warned that financial adjustments made to handle high interest payments might not fully tackle the increasing debt burdens resulting from off-budget spending. This is especially pertinent for oil-importing countries in the MENA region, Gatti noted.

Oil-exporting nations face the task of broadening their economic and financial sources due to shifts in global oil markets and rising demand for renewable energy.

Gatti explained that uncertainty in the MENA region, already higher than in other emerging markets and developing countries, intensified after October 7 (the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas) and remains higher than in those regions.

While noting that the report assumes no escalation in conflict, she cautioned about its lasting effects.

As per Gatti, studies show that debt patterns after conflict differ from other disasters. Debt tends to rise after nearly any natural disaster, and GDP growth drops in the disaster year. But growth rebounds in the following years.

After armed conflict, debt spikes significantly, like in any disaster. However, economic recovery post-conflict doesn’t happen, meaning government actions after fighting may not boost economic growth. This means pre-existing debt vulnerabilities could worsen if conflict escalates in the Middle East and North Africa.



China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
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China Approves $840B Plan to Refinance Local Government Debt, Boost Economy

Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Visitors walk past a shop under construction with a dragon mural at the Sanlitun shopping district in Beijing, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

China on Friday approved a 6 trillion yuan ($839 billion) plan to help local governments refinance their mountains of debt, in the latest push to rev up growth in the world’s second largest economy.

The plan will be implemented over the next three years, Xu Hongcai, vice-chairman of the National People's Congress's financial and economic committee, said at a news conference Friday.

Finance minister Lan Fo'an estimated that the hidden debt of local governments was 14.3 trillion yuan ($2 trillion) at the end of 2023. Hidden debt refers to debt that has not been disclosed publicly, The Associated Press reported.

Lan said 2 trillion yuan would be allocated each year from 2024 to 2026 to help local governments resolve their debts. He estimated that the amount of hidden debt will drop to 2.3 trillion yuan ($320.9 billion) by the end of 2028.

Officials also said Friday that the ceiling to issue special bonds will be raised to 35.52 trillion yuan ($4.96 billion) from 29.52 trillion yuan ($4.12 billion) for local governments.

Lan said that the implementation of such a large-scale replacement measure indicates a “fundamental shift” in China's approach to debt restructuring and said that China’s government debt risk was “controllable.”

Analysts have called for bold, multi-trillion-yuan measures to reinvigorate the world's second largest economy, which has yet to bounce back fully from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Local government debts have ballooned partly due to high spending and low tax revenues during the pandemic, but also due to a downturn in the property industry, since sales of land use rights, a key source of local government revenue, have sagged.

The central bank loosened restrictions on borrowing in late September, sparking a stock market rally, but economists say the government needs to do more to ignite a sustained recovery. Government officials have indicated that could come at this week's meeting of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, which must give official approval to any new spending.

The economy has shown signs of life in the past two months. Purchase subsidies offered to people who trade in old cars or appliances for new ones helped auto sales rebound in September. A survey of manufacturers turned positive in October after five straight months of decline, and exports surged 12.7% last month, the largest increase in more than two years.

For most of the year, the ruling Communist Party appeared more focused on addressing long-term structural issues with the economy rather than short-term ones. Previous steps to boost the economy were piecemeal, seemingly aimed at keeping the economy afloat rather than sparking a robust recovery.

In recent weeks, the party has signaled a growing concern about the economy's sluggishness as it tries to meet its goal of achieving growth of around 5% this year. The central bank's monetary easing was followed by government pronouncements that it still has ample funds to pump into the economy.

Still, the longer-term goals of transforming China into a high-tech and green energy economy seem likely to remain the chief aims of the Communist Party, which doesn't face election pressures like the ones that toppled the Democrats and swept Donald Trump's Republicans to power in America this week.