Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.20 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.94 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.

The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.

A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.



World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
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World Bank Warns that US Tariffs Could Reduce Global Growth Outlook

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 16: Workers build risers in Freedom Plaza ahead of the Inauguration on January 16, 2025 in Washington, DC. US President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect former Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) will be sworn in on January 20. Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images/AFP

The World Bank on Thursday warned that US across-the-board tariffs of 10% could reduce already lackluster global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 by 0.3 percentage point if America's trading partners retaliate with tariffs of their own.
Such tariffs, promised by US President-elect Donald Trump, could cut US growth - forecast to reach 2.3% in 2025 - by 0.9% if retaliatory measures are imposed, the bank said, citing economic simulations. But it noted that US growth could also increase by 0.4 percentage point in 2026 if US tax cuts were extended, it said, with only small global spillovers.
Trump, who takes office Monday, has proposed a 10% tariff on global imports, a 25% punitive duty on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamp down on drugs and migrants crossing borders into the US, and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospect report, issued twice yearly, forecast flat global economic growth of 2.7% in 2025 and 2026, the same as in 2024, and warned that developing economies now faced their weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, Reuters said.
The multilateral development bank said foreign direct investment into developing economies was now about half the level seen in the early 2000s and global trade restrictions were five times higher than the 2010-2019 average.
It said growth in developing countries is expected to reach 4% in 2025 and 2026, well below pre-pandemic estimates due to high debt burdens, weak investment and sluggish productivity growth, along with rising costs of climate change.
Overall output in emerging markets and development economies was expected to remain more than 5% below its pre-pandemic trend by 2026, due to the pandemic and subsequent shocks, it said.
"The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25," World Bank chief economist Indermit Gil said in a statement, urging countries to adopt domestic reforms to encourage investment and deepen trade relations.
Economic growth in developing countries dropped from nearly 6% in the 2000s to 5.1% in the 2010s and was averaging about 3.5% in the 2020s, the bank said.
It said the gap between rich and poor countries was also widening, with average per capita growth rates in developing countries, excluding China and India, averaging half a percentage point below those in wealth economies since 2014.
The somber outlook echoed comments made last week by the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, ahead of the global lender's own new forecast, to be released on Friday.
"Over the next two years, developing economies could face serious headwinds," the World Bank report said.
"High global policy uncertainty could undercut investor confidence and constrain financing flows. Rising trade tensions could reduce global growth. Persistent inflation could delay expected cuts in interest rates."
The World Bank said it saw more downside risks for the global economy, citing a surge in trade-distorting measures implemented mainly by advanced economies and uncertainty about future policies that was dampening investment and growth.
Global trade in goods and services, which expanded by 2.7% in 2024, is expected to reach an average of about 3.1% in 2025-2026, but to remain below pre-pandemic averages.