Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Steady as Market Weighs US Demand Concerns, Mideast Conflict Risks

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind a crude oil pump jack on a drill pad in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US November 24, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices steadied on Thursday after settling lower in the previous day, as signs of retreating fuel demand in the US, the world's biggest oil user, contended with widening conflict risks in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures inched up 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $88.20 a barrel at 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.94 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that gasoline stockpiles fell less than forecast while distillate stockpiles rose against expectations of a decline, reflecting signs of slowing demand.

The falling fuel demand is occurring amid signs of cooling US business activity in April and as stronger-than-expected inflation and employment data means the US Federal Reserve is more likely to delay expected interest rate cuts, weighing on economic sentiment.

"The current weakness in benchmark prices, after testing above $90 (a barrel) levels, is due to market sentiment refocusing on global economic headwinds over geopolitical tensions," said Emril Jamil, senior oil analyst at LSEG Oil Research.
Geopolitics aside, prices this quarter will be driven by factors including major producer supply cuts, economic data out of China and Eurozone, on top of incremental demand expectations as the Northern Hemisphere heads into summer amid expected tighter supply, said Jamil.

A better indication of the Fed's rate intentions will be seen after US gross domestic product and March personal consumption expenditure data is released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip between Israel and Hamas is expected to expand as Israel may start an assault on Rafah, in the enclave's south, which may increase the risk of a wider war that could potentially disrupt oil supplies.
However, there have been no other signs of direct conflict between Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, a major oil producer, since last week.
"Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, but Israeli attacks on Gaza are expected to worsen, and the risk of conflicts spreading to neighboring countries is underpinning oil prices," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities Co Ltd.
Other EIA data on Wednesday showed that crude stocks slumped by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for an 825,000-barrel rise.



Bank of England Cuts Main Interest Rate by a Quarter-point to 4.75%

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
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Bank of England Cuts Main Interest Rate by a Quarter-point to 4.75%

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS

The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday after inflation across the UK fell below its target rate of 2%.
The bank said its rate-setting panel lowered the benchmark rate to 4.75% — its second cut in three months — though its governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that interest rates would not be falling too fast over coming months.
“We need to make sure inflation stays close to target, so we can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” he said. “But if the economy evolves as we expect it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here.”
In the year to September, UK inflation stood at 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank’s target rate of 2%, The Associated Press reported.
Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues built up and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.
As inflation rates have recently fallen from multi-decade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates.
Economists have warned that worries about the future path of prices following last week's tax-raising budget from the new Labour government and the economic impact of US President-elect Donald Trump may limit the number of cuts next year.
The decision comes a week after Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could lead to higher inflation next year.
The rate decision also comes a day after Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election. He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the US and globally, thereby prompting Bank of England policymakers to keep interest rates higher than initially planned.