S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Credit ratings agency S&P on Friday moved Türkiye’s long-term sovereign rating one notch higher to B+ from B, with a positive outlook, according to a statement late Friday.

The ratings agency then forecasted rising portfolio inflows and narrowing current account deficits over the next two years, alongside declining inflation and dollarization.

“Following local elections in Türkiye, we believe the coordination between monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy is set to improve, amid external rebalancing,” it said.

The agency said Turkiye's policymakers are set to persevere with efforts to reduce elevated inflation through a combination of monetary and credit tightening, less generous wage settlements, and gradual fiscal consolidation.

Türkiye has launched a series of steps meant to cool soaring inflation, which could reach around 75% in May when the government ends its plan to provide a monthly reduction on natural gas bills. Ahead of the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections, the government has promised discounted natural gas bills for households for a year until May 2024.

S&P Global Ratings raised the country's rating outlook to positive in November in a move to recognize Türkiye’s shift to more orthodox economic policies and the central bank's steep rate hikes, made to rein in inflation, which climbed to 69.8 percent year-on-year in April despite raising the policy rate to 50 percent.

Türkiye ranks fourth in global inflation rates, surpassed by Argentina, Syria and Lebanon.

Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating earlier this year to B+ while Moody’s raised its outlook to positive at the same time as affirming its B3 ranking.

Mehmet Şimşek, the Turkish treasury and finance minister, earlier cited his expectations for credit upgrades to continue in March following Fitch’s move.

“The positive outlooks of S&P, Fitch and Moody’s foreshadow further rating increases,” Simsek said Saturday in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“The positive results of our program are reflected in the decisions of credit rating agencies,” he added.

“We are determined to carry the confidence in our country to the highest level with our strengthened program,” the minister also said.

Meanwhile, Burak Daglioglu, head of theTurkish Presidency Investment Office, said Türkiye last year rose to fourth place in Europe in attracting the most international investment projects.

“The $10.6 billion in international direct investment we attracted in 2023 is the most concrete sign of this success,” Daglioglu noted.

Commenting on a report by audit and consulting firm EY on foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in Europe in 2023, Daglioglu said Türkiye has maintained its steady rise in attracting the most international direct investment in Europe in the post-pandemic period.

He said EY found a significant fall from the previous year in FDI projects in Europe for the first time since the pandemic, blamed on factors such as low economic growth, high inflation, rising energy prices, and geopolitical risks.

He said 5,694 investment projects were announced in Europe, down 4% from the previous year.

The number of projects in Europe was 11% below its level in 2019 and 14% below the 2017 peak, according to Daglioglu.

He added that Türkiye ranked seventh in the European league in 2020 and fifth in 2022. “The country rose to fourth among the top 10 countries, attracting 375 international direct investment projects in 2023. With a 17% rise from the previous year, Türkiye also ranked first among the top 10 countries in terms of growth in 2023,” Daglioglu said.



Egypt, IMF Hold New Discussions to Alleviate Citizens’ Financial Burdens

Sisi and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. (Reuters file photo)
Sisi and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. (Reuters file photo)
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Egypt, IMF Hold New Discussions to Alleviate Citizens’ Financial Burdens

Sisi and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. (Reuters file photo)
Sisi and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. (Reuters file photo)

Egypt and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed to review their joint credit facilitation program to ensure that no additional burdens are placed on citizens.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly reiterated the government’s commitment to “maintaining a flexible exchange rate in coordination with the central bank to safeguard the progress achieved in this area.” He expressed hope that the meetings with the IMF delegation in the coming days would “conclude the fourth review of the economic reform program.”

Following a meeting on Sunday between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Cairo, the Egyptian Presidency announced that Georgieva expressed her “full understanding of the significant challenges Egypt faces amid regional and global developments.”

In March, Egypt signed an $8 billion extended financial support package with the IMF, which requires reducing subsidies on fuel, electricity, and essential goods and allowing the Egyptian pound to float.

In late October, Sisi warned that his government might need to reassess its program with the IMF if international institutions do not account for the extraordinary regional challenges the country is facing. He cited a nearly 60% drop in Suez Canal revenue due to security tensions in the Red Sea as an example.

During the meeting with Georgieva, Sisi expressed Egypt’s commitment to continuing its cooperation with the IMF, building on progress to boost economic stability and reduce inflation. However, he stressed the need to acknowledge recent challenges Egypt has faced due to regional and international crises, which have impacted foreign currency reserves and budget revenues.

Sisi reiterated that the government’s primary focus is on alleviating pressures on citizens, particularly by controlling inflation and curbing rising prices, while also continuing efforts to attract investments and empower the private sector to drive employment and growth.

Georgieva, in turn, commended Egypt’s recent efforts and the reform program being “carefully implemented with a focus on the most vulnerable.” She highlighted the progress in macroeconomic indicators despite unprecedented current challenges, noting that this has been reflected in positive assessments from international credit rating agencies, improved credit ratings, and increased investments.

She expressed her “full understanding of the significant challenges Egypt faces amid regional and global developments” and emphasized the IMF’s commitment to working with the Egyptian government to identify optimal reform paths.