S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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S&P Affirms Türkiye’s Successful Economic Plan

People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
People shop at Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Türkiye, November 4, 2022. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

Credit ratings agency S&P on Friday moved Türkiye’s long-term sovereign rating one notch higher to B+ from B, with a positive outlook, according to a statement late Friday.

The ratings agency then forecasted rising portfolio inflows and narrowing current account deficits over the next two years, alongside declining inflation and dollarization.

“Following local elections in Türkiye, we believe the coordination between monetary, fiscal, and incomes policy is set to improve, amid external rebalancing,” it said.

The agency said Turkiye's policymakers are set to persevere with efforts to reduce elevated inflation through a combination of monetary and credit tightening, less generous wage settlements, and gradual fiscal consolidation.

Türkiye has launched a series of steps meant to cool soaring inflation, which could reach around 75% in May when the government ends its plan to provide a monthly reduction on natural gas bills. Ahead of the 2023 parliamentary and presidential elections, the government has promised discounted natural gas bills for households for a year until May 2024.

S&P Global Ratings raised the country's rating outlook to positive in November in a move to recognize Türkiye’s shift to more orthodox economic policies and the central bank's steep rate hikes, made to rein in inflation, which climbed to 69.8 percent year-on-year in April despite raising the policy rate to 50 percent.

Türkiye ranks fourth in global inflation rates, surpassed by Argentina, Syria and Lebanon.

Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating earlier this year to B+ while Moody’s raised its outlook to positive at the same time as affirming its B3 ranking.

Mehmet Şimşek, the Turkish treasury and finance minister, earlier cited his expectations for credit upgrades to continue in March following Fitch’s move.

“The positive outlooks of S&P, Fitch and Moody’s foreshadow further rating increases,” Simsek said Saturday in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

“The positive results of our program are reflected in the decisions of credit rating agencies,” he added.

“We are determined to carry the confidence in our country to the highest level with our strengthened program,” the minister also said.

Meanwhile, Burak Daglioglu, head of theTurkish Presidency Investment Office, said Türkiye last year rose to fourth place in Europe in attracting the most international investment projects.

“The $10.6 billion in international direct investment we attracted in 2023 is the most concrete sign of this success,” Daglioglu noted.

Commenting on a report by audit and consulting firm EY on foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in Europe in 2023, Daglioglu said Türkiye has maintained its steady rise in attracting the most international direct investment in Europe in the post-pandemic period.

He said EY found a significant fall from the previous year in FDI projects in Europe for the first time since the pandemic, blamed on factors such as low economic growth, high inflation, rising energy prices, and geopolitical risks.

He said 5,694 investment projects were announced in Europe, down 4% from the previous year.

The number of projects in Europe was 11% below its level in 2019 and 14% below the 2017 peak, according to Daglioglu.

He added that Türkiye ranked seventh in the European league in 2020 and fifth in 2022. “The country rose to fourth among the top 10 countries, attracting 375 international direct investment projects in 2023. With a 17% rise from the previous year, Türkiye also ranked first among the top 10 countries in terms of growth in 2023,” Daglioglu said.



IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
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IMF Approves Third Review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 Bln Bailout

Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage
Peter Breuer, Senior Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF along with Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF and Martha Tesfaye Woldemichael, Deputy Mission Chief for Sri Lanka at the IMF, attend a press conference organized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Colombo, Sri Lanka, November 23, 2024. REUTERS/Thilina Kaluthotage

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the third review of Sri Lanka's $2.9 billion bailout on Saturday but warned that the economy remains vulnerable.
In a statement, the global lender said it would release about $333 million, bringing total funding to around $1.3 billion, to the crisis-hit South Asian nation. It said signs of an economic recovery were emerging, Reuters reported.
In a note of caution, it said "the critical next steps are to complete the commercial debt restructuring, finalize bilateral agreements with official creditors along the lines of the accord with the Official Creditor Committee and implement the terms of the other agreements. This will help restore Sri Lanka's debt sustainability."
Cash-strapped Sri Lanka plunged into its worst financial crisis in more than seven decades in 2022 with a severe dollar shortage sending inflation soaring to 70%, its currency to record lows and its economy contracting by 7.3% during the worst of the fallout and by 2.3% last year.
"Maintaining macroeconomic stability and restoring debt sustainability are key to securing Sri Lanka's prosperity and require persevering with responsible fiscal policy," the IMF said.
The IMF bailout secured in March last year helped stabilize economic conditions. The rupee has risen 11.3% in recent months and inflation disappeared, with prices falling 0.8% last month.
The island nation's economy is expected to grow 4.4% this year, the first increase in three years, according to the World Bank.
However, Sri Lanka still needs to complete a $12.5 billion debt restructuring with bondholders, which President Anura Kumara Dissanayake aims to finalize in December.
Sri Lanka will enter into individual agreements with bilateral creditors including Japan, China and India needed to complete a $10 billion debt restructuring, Dissanayake said.
He won the presidency in September, and his leftist coalition won a record 159 seats in the 225-member parliament in a general election last week.