UK Inflation Slows to Near Three-year Low

A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
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UK Inflation Slows to Near Three-year Low

A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)
A general view shows Palace of Westminster, home to the Houses of Parliament, and the Elizabeth Tower, commonly known by the name of the bell "Big Ben", in London on June 15, 2023. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP)

Britain's annual inflation rate slowed to a near three-year low in April as energy prices cooled further, official data showed Wednesday, boosting the governing Conservatives before this year's general election.

The Consumer Prices Index slowed to 2.3 percent from 3.2 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics revealed in a statement, though it was still faster than the 2.1 percent analysts were expecting.

April marked the lowest level since July 2021, when inflation had stood at the Bank of England's 2.0-percent target.

The news comes after the British central bank this month signalled a summer interest rate cut, as it held borrowing costs at a 16-year peak of 5.25 percent to further dampen price rises.

Following the inflation data, most analysts said a rate reduction was unlikely to occur as soon as June, when the European Central Bank is forecast to decrease eurozone borrowing costs, AFP reported.

The Federal Reserve is also expected to cut US interest rates this year as global inflationary pressures subside.

Sharply lower inflation sets the scene for this year's general election, as beleaguered Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives trail the main opposition Labor Party in opinion polls.

"Today marks a major moment for the economy, with inflation back to normal. This is proof that the plan is working and that the difficult decisions we have taken are paying off," insisted Sunak, who has made cutting inflation a top priority.

However, Labor finance spokesperson Rachel Reeves slammed the Tories' stewardship of the economy, which emerged in the first quarter from a shallow recession.

"Inflation has fallen but now is not the time for Conservative ministers to be popping champagne corks. Prices have soared, mortgages bills have risen and taxes are at a seventy year high," Reeves argued.

Prices are still rising on top of the sharp increases seen in recent years but at a far slower rate, with businesses and households weathering a cost-of-living crisis.

That has been worsened by elevated BoE interest rates which ramp up the cost of loans, denting disposable incomes and company investment, thereby crimping economic activity.

 



US Borrowing Binge Risks Market Strains

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
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US Borrowing Binge Risks Market Strains

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)

The US will be forced to fund a massive increase in its budget deficit with short-term debt, analysts have said, with consequences for money markets and the battle against inflation, according to The Financial Times.

The Congressional Budget Office, the independent fiscal watchdog, this week said aid packages for Ukraine and Israel would help push up the US deficit this fiscal year to $1.9tn — compared with its February prediction of $1.5tn. “We are spending money as a country like a drunken sailor on shore for the weekend,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays.

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks, who warn the US’s lack of discipline will inevitably push up borrowing costs and that neither President Joe Biden nor his Republican challenger Donald Trump have substantive plans to shore up the country’s finances. The more recent shift to short-term financing may also disrupt money markets and complicate the anti-inflation drive of the US Federal Reserve.

Some of the expected increase in the deficit is because of student loan forgiveness, which is not expected to have an immediate effect on cash flows. But Jay Barry, co-head of interest rate strategy at JPMorgan, said the expanded deficit would require the US to issue an additional $150bn of debt in the three months before the fiscal year ends in September.

He added he expected most of the funds to be raised through Treasury bills, short-term debt instruments whose maturity ranges from one day to a year. Such a move would increase the total outstanding stock of Treasury bills — unredeemed short-term US debt — from $5.7tn at the end of 2023 to an all-time high of $6.2tn by the end of this year.

“It is likely that the share of Treasury bills as a share of total debt increases, which opens up the question of who is going to buy them,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo. “This absolutely could strain funding markets.”

The size of the Treasury market has quintupled since the financial crisis, in an indication of how much the US has turned to debt financing over the past 15 years.

As the deficit has risen, the US Treasury has found it increasingly hard to finance via long-term debt without causing an uncomfortable rise in borrowing costs. It has boosted the share of short-term debt it issues — but analysts warned it risks hitting the limits of demand.