IMF: Lebanon's Reforms Insufficient for Recovery

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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IMF: Lebanon's Reforms Insufficient for Recovery

Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Lebanese policeman stand outside the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon October 17, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's economic reforms are insufficient to help lift the country out of its economic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.

Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, the head of the IMF mission visiting Lebanon, said in a statement that Lebanon's ongoing refugee crisis, fighting with Israel at its Southern border and the spillover from the war in Gaza are exacerbating an already dire economic situation.

Israeli forces and Lebanon's Hezbollah have traded fire across Lebanon's southern border since the war in Gaza broke out in October last year.

The conflict "has internally displaced a significant number of people and caused damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and trade in southern Lebanon. Together with a decline in tourism, the high risks associated with the conflict create significant uncertainty to the economic outlook," Rigo said, Reuters reported.
Fiscal and monetary reforms carried out by Lebanon's finance ministry and the central bank, including steps to unify multiple exchange rates for the Lebanese pound and contain a currency slump, have helped reduce inflationary pressure, according to Rigo.

However, he said more needs to be done if Lebanon is to alleviate its financial crisis.

"These policy measures fall short of what is needed to enable a recovery from the crisis. Bank deposits remain frozen, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the banking crisis," he added.

"Addressing the banks' losses while protecting depositors to the maximum extent possible and limiting recourse to scarce public resources in a credible and financially viable manner is indispensable to lay the foundation for economic recovery."

Since Lebanon's economy began to unravel in 2019, its currency has lost around 95% of its value, banks have locked most depositors out of their savings and more than 80% of the population has sunk below the poverty line.

The crisis erupted after decades of profligate spending and corruption among the ruling elite, some of whom led banks that lent heavily to the state.

The government estimates losses in the financial system total more than $70 billion, the majority of which were accrued at the central bank.

 

 

 

 

 



Gold Slips on Firmer Treasury Yields, Oil Prices; Fed Minutes in Focus

An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
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Gold Slips on Firmer Treasury Yields, Oil Prices; Fed Minutes in Focus

An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)
An employee displays a gold necklace at a jewelry store in Varanasi, India (AFP)

Gold fell on Tuesday, pressured by higher Treasury yields and oil prices, while traders awaited minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for clues on the outlook for interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.4% to $4,397.42 per ounce, as of 0624 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.5% to $4,452.90. Yields ‌on the benchmark ‌10-year US Treasury note extended gains, raising ‌the ⁠opportunity cost of holding ⁠non-yielding bullion.

Oil prices edged higher after Iran said it would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture following a breakdown in efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the war with the United States, while Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire agreement.

Oil prices will remain one ⁠of the key factors keeping gold under ‌pressure as the situation in ‌the Middle East continues to look uncertain, ANZ analyst Soni ‌Kumari said.

Traders' expectations around Fed policy rates are ‌going to be important for gold, with a focus on technical levels, Kumari added.

Elevated energy prices tend to raise inflationary fears and bolster expectations of higher interest rates. While gold is typically seen ‌as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to diminish bullion's appeal.

However, market ⁠pricing for ⁠a September quarter-point hike flipped to a nearly 65% chance of a "hold" after unexpected job losses in July, lower-than-expected consumer price inflation and weaker retail sales.

Investors are also awaiting minutes of the Fed's most recent policy meeting, with the release scheduled for Wednesday.

Spot gold may test support at $4,381, a break below which could open the way towards the $4,320 to $4,351 range, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Among other metals, spot silver slipped 0.7% to $65.32 per ounce, platinum lost 0.6% to $1,759.63 and palladium dipped 0.6% to $1,325.47.


Oil Climbs as Fading US-Iran Peace Hopes Raise Supply Risks

Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
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Oil Climbs as Fading US-Iran Peace Hopes Raise Supply Risks

Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)
Capuava oil refinery owned by Petrobras sits in Maui, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil, Nov. 6, 2023. (AP)

Oil prices rose on Tuesday as prospects receded for a deal to end the Middle East war, with Iran saying it would adopt a more offensive stance and the United States ruling out extension of a ceasefire deal, heightening worries about energy supply.

Iran will shift to a "fully offensive" military posture as efforts have stalled towards a permanent end to the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, as Washington ruled out extending their temporary ‌ceasefire pact.

Brent crude ‌futures climbed 62 cents, or 0.7%, to $91.49 a ‌barrel ⁠by 0408 GMT, ⁠after rising on Monday to their highest since July 30.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 75 cents at $85.25 a barrel, but off an earlier session gain of more than 1% to reach $85.37, their highest since July 31.

Outward progress on peace talks and resumption of oil tanker traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has halted, threatening to extend the conflict the United States and ⁠Israel launched with attacks on Iran on February 28.

"Oil ‌has jumped to start the week as ‌US-Iran relations look increasingly shaky," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM.

"A deal to ‌reopen the Strait of Hormuz still does not appear to be in ‌sight, and shipping numbers remain at a trickle."

A projectile struck a vessel transiting out of the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday in the latest of the attacks that have kept crossings to the single digits, despite a slight rise from the weekend, ‌tracking data showed.

"The lack of any kind of deal will have an impact on oil price expectations further out in 4Q and even in 2027," said DBS Bank's head of energy research Suvro Sarkar.

While the deal-related uncertainty lasts, he expected oil prices to range within $80 and $100 a barrel in the near term.

Iran has separately been negotiating with Oman an agreement on managing the Strait of Hormuz and says they are close to a deal.

US crude oil stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week alongside product inventories, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.


China’s Fuel Exports Edge Back Towards Levels Before Iran War as Beijing Eases Curbs

People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
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China’s Fuel Exports Edge Back Towards Levels Before Iran War as Beijing Eases Curbs

People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)
People cross a street past highrise buildings in Beijing, China, 17 August 2026. (EPA)

China's exports of ‌refined oil products in July fell 12.9% year-on-year but rose 6.7% from the previous month, customs data showed on Tuesday, as the easing of export curbs allowed refiners under pressure to ship more fuel overseas.

The key fuel supplier to Asia curbed exports sharply in March to protect its domestic market from the oil shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Iran war. Beijing eased those controls ‌in July ‌and again in August, when officials approved ‌enough ⁠exports to exceed ⁠pre-war levels.

In July, the latest month for which data is available, refined oil exports, which include diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel and marine fuel, totaled 4.65 million metric tons, up from 4.36 million in June, when exports jumped 29% from May.

Diesel exports are ⁠roughly back to the level of last ‌July after rising 88% ‌month-on-month to 810,000 tons, or about 50% higher than the monthly ‌average last year.

Rising exports are a boon ‌for customers in a tight market. They are also a precondition for the normalization of China's oil imports, which remain well below pre-war levels.

By allowing refiners to export more ‌product overseas, where prices are higher, the sector receives greater incentive to increase output ⁠and, in ⁠time, oil imports.

Exports of other fuels remain below pre-war levels, although rising. Gasoline exports stood at 420,000 tons in July, down 55.3% year-on-year but up 320% from June.

China's aviation fuel exports rose 42% from June to 1.32 million tons in July, but were down 33% from the same period last year.

The data also showed LNG imports rose 2.4% year-on-year to 5.5 million tons in July.

China's LNG imports in the first seven months dropped 4.6% from the same period last year.