Washout for UK Retailers as Rain Spurs Sharp Drop in April Sales

The earlier date of Easter this year meant spending in the run-up to the holiday took place in March not April. Reuters
The earlier date of Easter this year meant spending in the run-up to the holiday took place in March not April. Reuters
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Washout for UK Retailers as Rain Spurs Sharp Drop in April Sales

The earlier date of Easter this year meant spending in the run-up to the holiday took place in March not April. Reuters
The earlier date of Easter this year meant spending in the run-up to the holiday took place in March not April. Reuters

British retail sales slid by far more than expected in April as rainy weather kept shoppers away, in more mixed economic news for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead of a national election, data showed on Friday.
Sales volumes dropped by 2.3% in April alone after a 0.2% fall in March, which was downwardly revised from a flat reading, the Office for National Statistics said.
The data was worse than any economist predicted in a Reuters poll, which had pointed to a drop of around 0.4% on the month.
Overall the data added to a mixed picture of economic data in recent days. Earlier on Friday, market research firm GfK said consumer confidence rose in May to its highest in nearly two-and-a-half years, but business surveys disappointed on Thursday.
Sunak, whose Conservatives are trailing badly in opinion polls ahead of the July 4 election, hopes to persuade voters that the economy has turned a corner after exiting recession that lasted through the second half of 2023.
"Sales volumes fell across most sectors, with clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores doing badly as poor weather reduced footfall," the ONS said.
The stats agency was confident that it had adjusted the figures for the timing of the Easter holidays.
The earlier date of Easter this year meant spending in the run-up to the holiday took place in March not April, which affected British Retail Consortium data published earlier this month.
Analysts said there were reasons for optimism in future months.
"Retailers will be hoping that the better weather in May and the start of a summer of sport with the Euros, Wimbledon and the Olympics will provide a fillip for trading after a highly disappointing start to 2024," Lisa Hooker, leader of Industry for consumer markets at accountants PwC, said.
This month food and department store retailer Marks & Spencer reported a 58% rise in annual profit, while clothes and fashion chain Next sounded upbeat about its prospects after previously predicting a pickup in consumer sentiment.
Some home improvement stores however reported weakening demand.
Compared with a year ago, sales were 2.7% lower in April, the ONS said - again far short of the consensus for a 0.2% drop.
Surveys published by Barclays and the British Retail Consortium earlier this month showed consumers kept a tight rein on their spending in April.



Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
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Oil Slumps More than 4% after Iran Downplays Israeli Strikes

Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo
Oil pump jacks work at sunset near Midland, Texas, US, August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Jessica Lutz/File Photo

Oil prices tumbled more than $3 a barrel on Monday after Israel's retaliatory strike on Iran over the weekend bypassed Tehran's oil and nuclear facilities and did not disrupt energy supplies, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Both Brent and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit their lowest levels since Oct. 1 at the open. By 0750 GMT, Brent was at $72.92 a barrel, down $3.13, or 4.1%, while WTI slipped $3.15, or 4.4%, to $68.63 a barrel, Reuters said.
The benchmarks gained 4% last week in volatile trade as markets priced in uncertainty around the extent of Israel's response to the Iranian missile attack on Oct. 1 and the US election next month.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, in the latest exchange in the escalating conflict between the Middle Eastern rivals.
The geopolitical risk premium that had built in oil prices in anticipation of Israel's retaliatory attack came off, analysts said.
"The more limited nature of the strikes, including avoiding oil infrastructure, have raised hopes for a de-escalatory pathway, which has seen the risk premium come off a few dollars a barrel," Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at MST Marquee, said.
"The market will be watching closely for confirmation Iran won't counter attack in the coming weeks, which could see the risk premium rise again."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar expects market attention to turn to ceasefire talks between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hamas that resumed over the weekend.
"Despite Israel’s choice of a low aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire," he said in a note.
Citi lowered its Brent price target in the next three months to $70 a barrel from $74, factoring in a lower risk premium in the near term, its analysts led by Max Layton said in a note.
Analyst Tim Evans at US-based Evans Energy said in a note: "We think this leaves the market at least somewhat undervalued, with some risk OPEC+ producers may push back the planned increase in output targets beyond December."
In October, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, kept their oil output policy unchanged including a plan to start raising output from December. The group will meet on Dec. 1 ahead of a full meeting of OPEC+.