IMF Upgrades China’s 2024, 2025 GDP Growth Forecasts After ‘Strong’ Q1 

Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
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IMF Upgrades China’s 2024, 2025 GDP Growth Forecasts After ‘Strong’ Q1 

Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)
Cleaners prepare to clean the floor at the Galaxy Soho commercial office building in Beijing, Monday, May 27, 2024. (AP)

China's economy is set to grow 5% this year, after a "strong" first quarter, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, upgrading its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion though it expects slower growth in the years ahead.

The IMF said it had revised up both its 2024 and 2025 GDP targets by 0.4 percentage points but warned that growth in China would slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower expansion in productivity.

The global lender now expects the world's second-largest economy to grow 5% in 2024 and to slow to 4.5% in 2025.

"The upgrade that we have for this year mainly reflects the fact that first quarter GDP growth came in stronger than expected, and there were some additional policy measures that were recently announced," IMF's First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in Beijing.

China's economy grew at a faster than expected 5.3% pace year-on-year in the first quarter, but deflationary pressures continue to loom large and a protracted property crisis remains a major drag on growth.

"Inflation is expected to rise, but stay low, as output remains below potential. Core inflation is projected to increase only gradually to average around 1% in 2024," Gopinath said at a press conference to mark the release of the fund's annual review of China's economic policies.

A string of recent economic indicators for April including factory output, trade and consumer prices suggest the $18.6 trillion economy has successfully navigated some near-term downside risks, but China observers say the jury is still out on whether the bounce is sustainable.

Retail sales in April, for instance, grew at their slowest pace since December 2022, when Beijing's strict zero-COVID curbs were in place, while new home prices fell at their fastest rate in nine years.

"Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including from a greater or longer-than-expected property sector readjustment," Gopinath said. "The ongoing housing correction, which is necessary for steering the sector to a more sustainable path must continue."



Tel Aviv Shares Hit Record Highs after US Strikes Iran Nuclear Sites

A Tel Aviv Stock Exchange sign is seen at the bourse in Tel Aviv, Israel November 4, 2020. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
A Tel Aviv Stock Exchange sign is seen at the bourse in Tel Aviv, Israel November 4, 2020. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
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Tel Aviv Shares Hit Record Highs after US Strikes Iran Nuclear Sites

A Tel Aviv Stock Exchange sign is seen at the bourse in Tel Aviv, Israel November 4, 2020. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
A Tel Aviv Stock Exchange sign is seen at the bourse in Tel Aviv, Israel November 4, 2020. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo

Israeli stocks hit record highs on Sunday after the US attacked Iran's nuclear sites in strikes investors believe would likely prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons anytime soon.

The broad Tel Aviv 125 index closed 1.8% higher, extending gains to nearly 8% the past week, while the blue-chip TA-35 gained 1.5%.

On the heels of Israeli strikes in Iran, shares rose during all five sessions last week, gaining some 6%, as Israel hit Iranian nuclear and military targets prior to Saturday's surprise US attacks, Reuters reported.

"The destruction of Iran's key nuclear facilities by the US military is, of course, a positive development ... in terms of improving the regional security environment and reducing Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities," said Mizrahi Tefahot chief markets economist Ronen Menachem. "It's a game-changer."

Israel began its punishing attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on June 13, which have been met with retaliatory Iranian strikes against Israel.

US President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes overnight with massive bunker busting bombs, joining an Israeli assault in a significant new escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Tehran vowed to defend itself, and responded with a volley of missiles at Israel that wounded scores of people and destroyed buildings in Tel Aviv on Sunday.

In addition to gains in shares, government bond prices have risen, the shekel has appreciated and Israel's risk premium has edged lower.

Bond prices increased as much as 0.2% on Sunday. The shekel does not trade on Sunday but it has rallied from 3.61 per dollar on June 11 to 3.48 on Friday and is up some 1% this month.