Türkiye Inflation Hits 75% in Expected Peak Before Reliefhttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5027453-t%C3%BCrkiye-inflation-hits-75-expected-peak-relief
Türkiye Inflation Hits 75% in Expected Peak Before Relief
A view of produce for sale at a store in Istanbul, Türkiye, May 29, 2023. REUTERS/Hannah McKay/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
Turkish annual consumer price inflation reached 75.45% in May, a bit above expectations, official data showed on Monday, in what is expected to be the high watermark before a series of rate hikes and relative lira stability bring relief.
The consumer price index rise was driven by strong advances in education, housing and restaurant prices last month, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed.
Monthly inflation is also expected to ease after May, when it was 3.37%, compared with 3.18% in April, the data showed. Annual inflation in April was 69.80%, Reuters reported.
Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said "the worst is over" and relief will begin this month. "The transition period in the fight against inflation is completed, we are entering the disinflation process," he said on X.
In a Reuters poll, annual inflation had been forecast to peak at 74.8% in May, its highest level since November 2022, before dropping to 42.6% by the end of 2024. Forecasts for month-on-month price rises ranged between 2.7% and 3.3%.
The central bank has raised its policy rate (TRINT=ECI), opens new tab by 4,150 basis points since June last year and vowed to tighten more if there is "a significant and persistent deterioration" in the outlook.
It last raised rates in March, by 500 basis points to 50%, citing a worsening inflation outlook, and has since held steady.
The tightening marked a dramatic reversal of years of monetary stimulus that was championed by President Tayyip Erdogan to boost growth, but which sent inflation soaring and sparked a years-long cost-of-living crisis for Turks.
As a result the lira , steady on Monday, has skidded to 32.25 to the dollar from 5.7 five years ago. It is down more than 8% this year but held mostly steady since March, helping underpin the expected inflation relief.
"We're confident that inflation has now reached a peak but, with today's release containing a few unpleasant surprises, the pace of disinflation in the second half of the year is looking a bit more uncertain," Capital Economics said in a nod to the higher-than-expected print.
The domestic producer price index was up 1.96% month-on-month in May for an annual rise of 57.68%, the data showed.
The policy reversal has drawn foreign investor interest and helped boost the central bank's foreign reserves, which are at the highest level since December on a net basis.
International investors are ramping up exposure to Turkish local bonds and credit default swaps. JPMorgan said it had moved its allocation to Turkish domestic government bonds to "overweight", citing increasing confidence in the policy.
Last month, the central bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% and said it would "do whatever it takes" to avoid any longer-term deterioration in the outlook.
King Salman Automotive Cluster Targets Localized Manufacturing and Greater Sector Contribution
A Saudi Ceer car (Reuters)
In King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC) on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, a new industrial hub is taking shape with the goal of moving the Kingdom's automotive sector beyond simply attracting global manufacturers toward building an integrated ecosystem encompassing vehicle production, component manufacturing, logistics services, and workforce development.
The King Salman Automotive Cluster brings together domestic and international companies, including Ceer, Lucid, and Hyundai Middle East Engine Manufacturing, alongside projects aimed at localizing the production of automotive components and establishing specialized training facilities.
The cluster is designed to support economic diversification and deepen local content, leveraging KAEC's industrial and logistics infrastructure and its proximity to King Abdullah Port.
According to data from KAEC, the cluster's ecosystem is expected to contribute more than SAR 92 billion ($24.5 billion) to Saudi Arabia's non-oil GDP by 2035. It is also projected to create direct and indirect employment opportunities and boost Saudi exports to regional and global markets.
The area designated for automotive manufacturing activities within KAEC's Special Economic Zone was officially named the King Salman Automotive Cluster in February 2025 under directives from Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The cluster is intended to serve as a hub for local and international companies operating in vehicle manufacturing and sustainable mobility solutions, with a focus on enhancing manufacturing capabilities, research and development, supply chain efficiency, and connectivity to regional and international markets.
Lucid Motors factory in King Salman Automotive Cluster (Company Media Center)
From Vehicle Assembly to a Local Value Chain
Majed Abdullah Matbouly, Chief Operating Officer of King Abdullah Economic City, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the cluster represents a strategic pillar in Saudi Arabia's economic transformation by bringing together industrial investments, global expertise, and national capabilities within a single ecosystem.
He said the project's significance extends beyond attracting automakers to creating stronger links among vehicle manufacturers, component suppliers, and training institutions, thereby expanding local supply networks, facilitating knowledge transfer, and generating new partnership opportunities for the private sector.
Matbouly added that the presence of global manufacturers alongside Saudi brands fosters the accumulation of industrial expertise and the development of local talent, enabling Saudi Arabia to capitalize on global transformations in the automotive industry and advance the goals of Vision 2030 related to economic diversification and non-oil sector development.
This vision is supported by KAEC's integrated industrial and logistics infrastructure, which includes the Industrial Valley, the Special Economic Zone, and direct access to King Abdullah Port, providing manufacturers and suppliers with efficient gateways to domestic and international markets.
The cluster's development aligns with the Public Investment Fund's (PIF) strategy to expand investments in the automotive and transportation sectors through partnerships with private industry and through joint ventures with international manufacturers.
The project also supports the goals of the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program (NIDLP) as well as Saudi Arabia's national industrial, transport, and logistics strategies.
Ceer and Lucid Lead Vehicle Production
Ceer, Saudi Arabia's first electric vehicle brand, is among the flagship projects within the cluster. The company was established through a partnership between the Public Investment Fund and Foxconn, utilizing technologies and components licensed from BMW.
In 2024, Ceer awarded contracts for the construction of its manufacturing complex in KAEC and plans to produce seven vehicle models across sedan and SUV categories by 2030.
Majed Abdullah Matbouly, Chief Operating Officer of King Abdullah Economic City (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The company is part of a broader effort to build domestic capabilities in electric vehicle manufacturing and develop a localized ecosystem encompassing production, suppliers, and related services.
Similarly, KAEC hosts Lucid Motors' first factory outside the United States, which opened in September 2023. The facility produced the first vehicle bearing the label "Made in Saudi Arabia," while the company is developing a second production facility aimed at manufacturing fully built vehicles by 2027.
Together, these projects form part of Saudi Arabia's efforts to establish domestic production capacity while facilitating the localization of expertise and technologies associated with electric vehicle manufacturing.
A Saudi Ceer car (Reuters)
Hyundai Joins the Regional Manufacturing Ecosystem
The cluster also includes the Hyundai Middle East Engine Manufacturing project. Construction began in May 2025 as part of Hyundai's plans to establish a regional industrial base.
The company plans to recruit and train Saudi talent throughout 2026, linking manufacturing expansion with workforce development. The project is expected to create thousands of jobs while transferring manufacturing expertise and technology to Saudi workers.
Additional initiatives include an agreement between the Public Investment Fund and Pirelli to establish a tire manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia, supporting diversification within the automotive sector and strengthening local component production capabilities.
These projects broaden the industrial base beyond vehicle assembly, fostering a network of local suppliers capable of serving manufacturers and increasing participation in global supply chains.
73% of Masarat Industrial Land Leased
On the supply-chain front, the Masarat Mobility Park is a key initiative designed to attract automotive suppliers, mobility companies, and related service providers.
Project data show that 73 percent of its industrial land has already been leased, while infrastructure design and development of planned ready-built facilities continue.
Six factories for Tier-1 global automotive suppliers are being developed within the park. Five are located within the Tasaru supplier accelerator center, operated by Tasaru Mobility Investments, while the sixth is FPI Gulf, a joint venture between Thailand's FPI Company and Saudi Arabia's Fuel Autoparts.
Once operational, these facilities are expected to manufacture and distribute automotive components to local and international manufacturers, expanding domestic production capacity and creating additional partnership opportunities between international investors and Saudi firms.
Supplier development is considered essential for building an integrated industrial ecosystem. Locating suppliers close to vehicle production facilities reduces logistical distances, strengthens domestic manufacturing capabilities, and increases Saudi firms' participation in global value chains.
Lucid Air Grand Touring electric car displayed at the New York International Auto Show (Reuters)
Training to Meet Industry Demand
The cluster's development extends beyond infrastructure and investment to workforce preparation.
The National Automotive and Vehicles Academy (NAVA), established in 2024, is tasked with training technicians to support the sector's growth. According to project data, the academy has trained more than 1,200 technicians and delivered over 90,000 training days during its first two years.
The initiative seeks to equip the industry with the technical skills it requires while promoting knowledge transfer and the localization of industrial capabilities, particularly in electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing technologies.
Investment in training is being pursued in parallel with efforts to attract manufacturers and suppliers, ensuring that production expansion is matched by the availability of skilled personnel capable of operating, improving, and enhancing the competitiveness of manufacturing facilities.
Port and Logistics Infrastructure Support Expansion
The growth of the King Salman Automotive Cluster is closely tied to KAEC's broader advantages, including industrial infrastructure, logistics services, residential communities, educational institutions, and support services.
Matbouly noted that the city's position on the Red Sea and its direct connection to King Abdullah Port give manufacturers efficient access to regional and global markets. The availability of integrated services also helps attract suppliers and specialized service providers.
KAEC additionally benefits from its proximity to Jeddah, Makkah, and Madinah, as well as connections to major highway networks, the Haramain High-Speed Railway, and King Abdulaziz International Airport, all of which facilitate the movement of people, goods, and skilled workers.
As vehicle and component manufacturing projects advance, supplier networks expand, and technical training programs mature, the cluster's ability to deliver lasting economic impact will depend on how effectively these elements are integrated into a sustainable domestic production ecosystem.
Expanding the supplier base and strengthening Saudi talent remain key factors in increasing local content and cementing the Kingdom's position within the global automotive value chain.
Gold Slips as Markets Assess Fed Signals, Await US Inflation Datahttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5335011-gold-slips-markets-assess-fed-signals-await-us-inflation-data
Gold Slips as Markets Assess Fed Signals, Await US Inflation Data
A salesman presents gold bars at a jewellery shop inside the Gold Market at the Old Souk in Dubai EPA
Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors assessed signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Kevin Warsh after policymakers left interest rates unchanged, while awaiting key US inflation data later in the day for further clues on the rate outlook.
Spot gold slid 0.7% to $4,037.98 per ounce by 0410 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery steadied at $4,049.80.
"Today's fall is purely because of persistent Middle East uncertainty and markets positioning ahead of today's inflation data," said Ajay Kedia, director at Mumbai-based Kedia Commodities.
The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, in the 3.75%-4.00% range, as expected, opting to delay any changes to borrowing costs until after next week's US midterm elections while it awaits further data on inflation.
Traders are now pricing in about a 78% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with 84% before the announcement, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.
Markets are awaiting the Personal Consumption Expenditures data due at 1230 GMT, a key gauge closely watched by the Fed as it targets a 2% inflation rate.
Global commodity prices are set to surge 23% in 2026, the World Bank said on Wednesday, citing rising energy prices and disruptions to cargo shipping during the Middle East war, grain shipment problems in the Black Sea and high demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
Elsewhere, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in September rose more than 28% from August to a five-month high, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Wednesday.
On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance sent a letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei in a bid to revive peace negotiations, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $53.15 per ounce, platinum dropped 1.5% to $1,515.70 and palladium slid 0.6% to $1,004.25.
Oil Prices Fall as Peace Hopes Offset Fears of Growing Middle East Conflicthttps://english.aawsat.com/business/5335010-oil-prices-fall-peace-hopes-offset-fears-growing-middle-east-conflict
Oil Prices Fall as Peace Hopes Offset Fears of Growing Middle East Conflict
FILE PHOTO: A general view shows an oil rig used in drilling at the Zubair oilfield in Basra, Iraq, July 5, 2022. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
Oil prices fell on Thursday, paring gains made a day earlier, as hopes for peace talks took the edge off renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions from escalating regional conflict.
Brent crude futures declined $1.22, or 1.1%, to $114.10 a barrel at 0351 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.33, or 1.3%, at $101.45.
Brent rose 1.3% and WTI gained 3% on Wednesday, said Reuters.
US Vice President JD Vance sought to revive peace negotiations by sending a letter to Iranian Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei, the Wall Street Journal said on Wednesday, citing US officials and people familiar with the matter.
"Selling pressure is prevailing amid expectations that peace talks may resume," said Yuki Takashima, an economist at Nomura Securities. "However, the decline remains limited."
This was due to concerns over intensified attacks by the Houthis and fears the US may launch an attack on Iran following its midterm elections set for November 3.
The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen fighting Houthis said it destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the group towards Saudi Arabia's eastern region early on Thursday, as hostilities between the two sides show no signs of abating.
The Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday, Yemeni government forces said.
Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal to end the war with the US and Israel, an official briefed on the negotiations said, but a senior Iranian official dismissed it as unacceptable ideas that did not amount to an offer.
Iran's foreign minister said on Wednesday Tehran continued to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and flagged the possibility of completing its seven-day plan in less than a week if adopted.
Some expectations of rising crude and diesel production from Russia weighed further on market sentiment and prices.
"Since the October 15 strike on the Ryazan refinery, there have been no further confirmed attacks on Russian refining infrastructure," JPMorgan analysts said in a note last night. "The silence has allowed Russian refinery runs to rebound by 350 kbd last week to 4 mbd."
"Higher runs would also allow Russia to lift crude production by a broadly comparable amount, reversing part of the recent decline that pushed output to 8.4 mbd—its lowest level since 2003 ... (but) higher crude production would not necessarily translate into higher crude exports."
The US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that energy firms pulled 1.9 million barrels of crude from storage during the week ended October 23, versus analysts' forecast of a 15,000-barrel build in a Reuters poll.
But gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.9 million barrels, against analysts' expectations for a draw of 0.9 million barrels.
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