Saudi Arabia: Extending Voluntary Cuts Supports Market Stability

02 June 2024, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh: Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman pose for a photo during the 37th OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Photo: -/Saudi Press Agency/dpa
02 June 2024, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh: Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman pose for a photo during the 37th OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Photo: -/Saudi Press Agency/dpa
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Saudi Arabia: Extending Voluntary Cuts Supports Market Stability

02 June 2024, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh: Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman pose for a photo during the 37th OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Photo: -/Saudi Press Agency/dpa
02 June 2024, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh: Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman pose for a photo during the 37th OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Photo: -/Saudi Press Agency/dpa

Saudi Arabia’s cabinet on Tuesday welcomed the latest OPEC+ decisions, saying the Kingdom’s decision with seven other countries to extend their voluntary oil cuts aimed to boost precautionary efforts to support oil market stability.

OPEC oil-producing nations plus others including Russia make up OPEC+.

The OPEC+ alliance agreed on Sunday to extend its additional voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, initially announced in November 2023, until the end of September 2024.

The alliance also decided to extend the additional cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day, announced in April 2023, until the end of December 2025.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met in person in Riyadh on the sidelines of the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that it is better for OPEC+ countries to remain cautious, in the context of the different views on the market and the continuing state of economic uncertainty.

“The group is moving hard and showing its cohesion and that it can stop or reverse course if necessary,” he told reporters after attending the OPEC+ meeting in Riyadh on Sunday.

On his part, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Imad Al-Atiqi affirmed on Tuesday that the economic conditions and interest rates were two main factors in determining market stability and supply and demand rates.

In a ministry press release, Al-Atiqi said that the OPEC and OPEC+ ministerial meetings that were held on Sunday came as part of OPEC+ efforts to help stabilize the oil market.

Al-Atiqi applauded the positive results of those meetings that would help restore balance in the oil market, in which they included the extension of voluntary output cuts until December 2025.

He called for being cautious during the revision of the oil market developments, pointing out that OPEC+ strategy towards the market will depend mainly on the pattern of those developments.

He stressed that the commitment of the OPEC+ member states in the voluntary reduction in an integrated manner is vital, as it will ensure market stability and interacting proactively with the dynamics of global oil demand.

Al-Atiqi praised Iraq, Russia, and Kazakhstan’s pledge to achieve full compliance with OPEC+ production targets and to submit their updated compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat by the end of June 2024.

These plans address excess production levels since January 2024.

HSBC stated that the recent OPEC+ agreement has successfully maintained the cohesion of the alliance.

The bank kept its Brent crude price forecast unchanged at $82 per barrel for 2024, expecting it to average $80 per barrel in the second half of the year.

HSBC analysts noted that the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was anticipated, as they had previously forecasted the continuation of production cuts until at least the end of 2025, given strong supply growth from non-OPEC sources.

Overall, HSBC indicated that OPEC+ plans to add approximately 2.5 million barrels per day to production from October 2024 to September 2025.

This includes the end of the second phase of voluntary cuts agreed upon in November 2023, amounting to about 2.2 million barrels per day, along with an additional 300,000 barrels per day from the UAE.



Positive Outlook for Saudi Stock Market Next Week

A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Positive Outlook for Saudi Stock Market Next Week

A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)
A trader monitors the screen at the Saudi Exchange in Riyadh. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index (TASI) ended the second week of March with a slight decline for the third consecutive week, closing down 0.73% at 11,725.88 points, compared to the previous week's close of 11,811.11 points.

In an analysis of the market performance during the week ending March 13, Dr. Suleiman Al-Humaid Al-Khalidi, a financial market analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the market experienced a sharp decline not seen in years, coinciding with a drop in global markets, particularly in the US, where $2 trillion in value was wiped out in a single day.

This accounted for roughly 60% of the total market value of the Saudi stock market.

Al-Khalidi noted that the key player in the Saudi market is the banking sector, especially Al-Rajhi Bank's shares, which showed resilience and did not follow the downward trend. This was attributed to the strong profits reported by the banking sector in 2024.

The primary factors contributing to the market’s decline include global economic pressures, particularly US tariffs on most global economies, ongoing global uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policies, he explained.

These factors have significantly impacted liquidity flows into financial markets. Additionally, fluctuations in global oil prices, despite recent stability, have also played a role.

This downturn has been accompanied by caution among sovereign wealth funds, investment institutions, and some portfolios in injecting new liquidity or altering their positions until there is more clarity in the financial markets, he went on to say.

Moreover, Al-Khalidi said that the Saudi stock market has not accurately reflected the true strength and size of the Saudi economy, which has grown to SAR 4 trillion, up from SAR 600 billion in 2016, before the launch of Vision 2030.

Additionally, the country’s GDP has reached approximately $1.1 trillion.

Looking ahead to the market's performance in the coming week, he noted that there are strong support levels at 11,550 points, followed by 11,450 points.

These levels could help shift the market toward an upward trajectory and better reflect the robust growth of the Saudi economy.

Al-Khalidi emphasized that the banking and energy sectors could play a leading role in driving the market higher, pushing the index beyond this week’s closing levels.

He also pointed out that some stocks are hitting new lows, presenting significant investment opportunities for those seeking safe havens with steady returns in the Saudi market.