Moody’s Issues France Credit Rating Warning Over Snap Elections 

Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
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Moody’s Issues France Credit Rating Warning Over Snap Elections 

Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)

France's snap parliamentary elections are negative for the country's credit score, ratings agency Moody's has warned.

"This snap election increases risks to fiscal consolidation," Moody's said in a statement late on Monday, describing it as "credit negative" for the country's Aa2 rating, which is one notch above Fitch and S&P Global's equivalent score.

"Potential political instability is a credit risk given the challenging fiscal picture the next government will inherit," it added, saying the currently "stable" outlook on France's rating could be cut to "negative" if its debt metrics worsened further.

"A weakening commitment to fiscal consolidation would also increase downward credit pressures," Moody's said.

President Emmanuel Macron called a shock snap legislative election on Monday following a bruising loss in the weekend's European Parliament vote to the far-right party of Marine Le Pen.

Macron's unexpected decision, which amounts to a roll of the dice on his political future, could hand major political power to the far-right after years on the sidelines, and neuter his presidency three years before it ends.

The legislative vote will take place on June 30, less than a month before the start of the Paris Olympics, with a second round on July.

Moody's highlighted that the country's debt burden, which is already over 110% of GDP, is higher than other similarly rated countries and has seen a near-continuous increase since the 1970s due to consistently large structural budget deficits.

S&P Global downgraded its French rating earlier this month due to the same concerns, and Moody's signaled what would drive it to follow suit.

"The outlook, and ultimately the ratings, could move to negative if we were to conclude that the deterioration in debt affordability – which we measure as interest payments relative to revenue and GDP – will be significantly larger in France than in its rating peers," it said.



Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
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Saudi Transport, Logistics Sector Set for 10% Growth in Q2

An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)
An investor monitors a trading screen at the Saudi financial market in Riyadh. (AFP)

As Saudi companies start reporting their Q2 financial results, experts are optimistic about the transport and logistics sector. They expect a 10% annual growth, with total net profits reaching around SAR 900 million ($240 million), driven by tourism and an economic corridor project.

In Q1, the seven listed transport and logistics companies in Saudi Arabia showed positive results, with combined profits increasing by 5.8% to SAR 818.7 million ($218 million) compared to the previous year.

Four companies reported profit growth, while three saw declines, including two with losses, according to Arbah Capital.

Al Rajhi Capital projects significant gains for Q2 compared to last year: Lumi Rental’s profits are expected to rise by 31% to SAR 65 million, SAL’s by 76% to SAR 192 million, and Theeb’s by 23% to SAR 37 million.

On the other hand, Aljazira Capital predicts a 13% decrease in Lumi Rental’s net profit to SAR 43 million, despite a 44% rise in revenue. This is due to higher operational costs post-IPO.

SAL’s annual profit is expected to grow by 76% to SAR 191.6 million, driven by a 29% increase in revenue and higher profit margins.

Aljazira Capital also expects a 2.8% drop in the sector’s net profit from Q1 due to lower profits for SAL and Seera, caused by reduced revenue and profit margins.

Mohammad Al Farraj, Head of Asset Management at Arbah Capital, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the sector’s continued profit growth is supported by seasonal factors like summer travel and higher demand for transport services.

He predicts Q2 profits will reach around SAR 900 million ($240 million), up 10% from Q1.

Al Farraj highlighted that the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), linking India with the GCC and Europe, is expected to boost sector growth by improving trade and transport connections.

However, he warned that companies may still face challenges, including rising costs and workforce shortages.