Moody’s Issues France Credit Rating Warning Over Snap Elections 

Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
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Moody’s Issues France Credit Rating Warning Over Snap Elections 

Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)
Activists and demonstrators take part in an “antifascist rally" following the European election results, in Toulouse, France, on June 10, 2024. (AFP)

France's snap parliamentary elections are negative for the country's credit score, ratings agency Moody's has warned.

"This snap election increases risks to fiscal consolidation," Moody's said in a statement late on Monday, describing it as "credit negative" for the country's Aa2 rating, which is one notch above Fitch and S&P Global's equivalent score.

"Potential political instability is a credit risk given the challenging fiscal picture the next government will inherit," it added, saying the currently "stable" outlook on France's rating could be cut to "negative" if its debt metrics worsened further.

"A weakening commitment to fiscal consolidation would also increase downward credit pressures," Moody's said.

President Emmanuel Macron called a shock snap legislative election on Monday following a bruising loss in the weekend's European Parliament vote to the far-right party of Marine Le Pen.

Macron's unexpected decision, which amounts to a roll of the dice on his political future, could hand major political power to the far-right after years on the sidelines, and neuter his presidency three years before it ends.

The legislative vote will take place on June 30, less than a month before the start of the Paris Olympics, with a second round on July.

Moody's highlighted that the country's debt burden, which is already over 110% of GDP, is higher than other similarly rated countries and has seen a near-continuous increase since the 1970s due to consistently large structural budget deficits.

S&P Global downgraded its French rating earlier this month due to the same concerns, and Moody's signaled what would drive it to follow suit.

"The outlook, and ultimately the ratings, could move to negative if we were to conclude that the deterioration in debt affordability – which we measure as interest payments relative to revenue and GDP – will be significantly larger in France than in its rating peers," it said.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.