Gold Gains Traction on Weak US Economic Data

Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
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Gold Gains Traction on Weak US Economic Data

Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)
Gold bullion displayed in a store in the German city of Pforzheim (dpa)

Gold prices edged up on Wednesday after data suggesting lacklustre US economic activity kept alive hopes for at least one interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,330.27 per ounce as of 1156 GMT. Prices rose about 0.4% in the previous session.

US retail sales barely rose in May and figures for the prior month were revised considerably lower, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting economic activity remained lacklustre in the second quarter, Reuters reported.

That slightly boosted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 67% from 61% a day earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The main drive for gold's price action remains the market expectations over the Fed's monetary policy and despite prices creeping up, the move is quite subdued as the market waits for more substantial news, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

"Market expectations point to at least one rate cut from the Fed. That scenario has been fully priced in the value of the dollar. Government purchases (of gold) remain stable as well. So, unless there is any significant change in this scenario, prices are expected to remain supported above the $2,300 level," Evangelista said.

Gold prices rose about 1.3% last Friday on signs of inflation cooling in the United States amid a selloff across European equities as French stocks were battered by political turmoil.

Political uncertainty surrounding Europe can be a positive, with elections in France and the UK nearing, Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said.

The more immediate focus, however, is on the US weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and flash purchasing managers' indexes on Friday.

Spot silver was up 0.1% at $29.54 per ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $983.45 and palladium gained 1.9% to $904.00.



How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)

Financial analysts and market experts predict a downturn for Gulf stock markets this summer. They foresee lower stock values, reduced trading volumes, sectoral stagnation, delayed investment decisions, and a focus on holding strong positions in high-performing large-cap stocks.

This trend is driven by the majority of traders taking their annual vacations during this period. Typically, sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality see seasonal growth in summer.

From the start of 2024 to mid-year, Gulf markets have shown mixed results. Muscat Securities Market rose by 3.8%, Bahrain Bourse by 3.5%, and Kuwait Stock Exchange by 1.33%. However, Qatar Stock Exchange dropped by 8.02%, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange by 5.4%, Saudi Arabia’s main index by 1.99%, and Dubai Financial Market slightly by 0.7%.

Tareq Al-Ateeq, a financial analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that investor behavior across Gulf markets tends to align during summer due to holiday seasons and high temperatures, leading to lower liquidity and fluctuating market indices.

Investors are delaying decisions until summer ends, focusing on robust positions in large-cap and defensive stocks, which is expected to dampen market liquidity and activity in July and August 2024.

Certain sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality are anticipated to see increased trading during the summer. Some investors aim to capitalize on market downturns by adjusting their sector allocations.

In 2023, markets like Dubai saw a 6% monthly increase, with Saudi Arabia's market index rising by 4%. Oman also experienced a 3.1% increase, while Qatar and Bahrain markets declined by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Key sectors such as consumer goods, utilities, tourism, hospitality, and energy are showing increased trading activity and interest during the summer season.