US Borrowing Binge Risks Market Strains

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
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US Borrowing Binge Risks Market Strains

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)
The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks - (File/AFP)

The US will be forced to fund a massive increase in its budget deficit with short-term debt, analysts have said, with consequences for money markets and the battle against inflation, according to The Financial Times.

The Congressional Budget Office, the independent fiscal watchdog, this week said aid packages for Ukraine and Israel would help push up the US deficit this fiscal year to $1.9tn — compared with its February prediction of $1.5tn. “We are spending money as a country like a drunken sailor on shore for the weekend,” said Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays.

The increase in the deficit has long alarmed fiscal hawks, who warn the US’s lack of discipline will inevitably push up borrowing costs and that neither President Joe Biden nor his Republican challenger Donald Trump have substantive plans to shore up the country’s finances. The more recent shift to short-term financing may also disrupt money markets and complicate the anti-inflation drive of the US Federal Reserve.

Some of the expected increase in the deficit is because of student loan forgiveness, which is not expected to have an immediate effect on cash flows. But Jay Barry, co-head of interest rate strategy at JPMorgan, said the expanded deficit would require the US to issue an additional $150bn of debt in the three months before the fiscal year ends in September.

He added he expected most of the funds to be raised through Treasury bills, short-term debt instruments whose maturity ranges from one day to a year. Such a move would increase the total outstanding stock of Treasury bills — unredeemed short-term US debt — from $5.7tn at the end of 2023 to an all-time high of $6.2tn by the end of this year.

“It is likely that the share of Treasury bills as a share of total debt increases, which opens up the question of who is going to buy them,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo. “This absolutely could strain funding markets.”

The size of the Treasury market has quintupled since the financial crisis, in an indication of how much the US has turned to debt financing over the past 15 years.

As the deficit has risen, the US Treasury has found it increasingly hard to finance via long-term debt without causing an uncomfortable rise in borrowing costs. It has boosted the share of short-term debt it issues — but analysts warned it risks hitting the limits of demand.



Schengen Visa Applications in Saudi Arabia Grew by 23% in 2024

Visa applicants are seen at the Visa Center in Riyadh to complete their application procedures. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Visa applicants are seen at the Visa Center in Riyadh to complete their application procedures. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Schengen Visa Applications in Saudi Arabia Grew by 23% in 2024

Visa applicants are seen at the Visa Center in Riyadh to complete their application procedures. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Visa applicants are seen at the Visa Center in Riyadh to complete their application procedures. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

As travel and tourism continue to grow, despite the challenges faced by local, regional, and international businesses and projects, VFS Global has revealed that demand for Schengen visas in Saudi Arabia has increased significantly by 23% this year.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zubin Karkaria, founder and CEO of VFS Global, said that the company has managed the visa procedures for the Saudi Ministry of Tourism’s Trailblazers program, which works to send 100,000 students to Europe for training in the tourism and travel sectors.

He added: “Our strategy aims to provide long-term value to all stakeholders, including the Saudi government and its citizens, contributing to Saudi Arabia’s vision of creating a diverse and sustainable economy by applying some of our modern solutions to our operations in the Kingdom.”

Karkaria emphasized that Saudi Arabia is a key market for VFS Global’s business, noting that the company has expanded its presence and services in the Kingdom over the years through strategic partnerships to facilitate visa services for travelers. These partnerships include agreements with chambers of commerce, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), and Aramco.

He further stated: “VFS Global strictly adheres to service-level agreements with its government clients, managing non-judicial and administrative tasks related to visa applications, passports, and consular services.”

As international travel grows in emerging markets, there has been an increasing need for specialized services to meet the demands of governments and visa applicants globally. “This led us to develop an approach that benefits both parties, where we handle all administrative procedures necessary for visa processing,” Karkaria explained.

According to him, VFS Global enjoys a long-standing partnership with governments in the European Union, working closely with them in the countries where they operate to provide visa application services. He noted the ongoing rise in demand for international travel and visa issuance.

“The initial challenge during the COVID-19 pandemic, which directly impacted travel and related sectors, was dealing with the volatile business environment. We quickly recognized both the severity of the crisis and the opportunity to transform our operations to prepare our organization for the future,” he said.

He continued: “For instance, by April 2020, 3,196 of our 3,384 visa application centers worldwide were temporarily closed in response to the global crisis. However, within just seven months, we resumed operations at 1,600 centers, representing more than half of our global network, enabling us to serve over 50 government clients across 129 countries while implementing new health and safety measures to protect both staff and visa applicants.”

Karkaria said that over the past 23 years, the company played a critical role in helping its clients manage the rapid growth in visa demand in a cost-effective and highly secure manner.

He added: “We have also developed innovative solutions tailored to our government clients, such as LIDProTM, which allows them to process visa applications from multiple locations via a centralized electronic hub.” VFS Global is the trusted partner of 67 government clients and operates in 151 countries.

Karkaria stated that the company supports travel to the Kingdom by providing Saudi visa services since 2023.

“Through our partnership with the Saudi Visa and Travel Solutions company, we operate and manage Saudi visa service centers in 45 countries worldwide,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added: “We are committed to supporting Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plans to develop and grow tourism by expanding Saudi visa services in partnership with the Saudi Visa and Travel Solutions company. We are also in the process of appointing relationship managers for key government and private sector entities.”

Karkaria noted that Saudi Arabia has recently launched an educational visa to boost the education sector by supporting international institutions in establishing branches in the Kingdom and attracting international students to study and reside in the country.

In this context, VFS Global will help international institutions establish branches in Saudi Arabia and assist potential Saudi students in pursuing their careers at various international universities through professional guidance and recruitment services.

VFS Global established its visa application center operations in Saudi Arabia in 2005, providing visa and passport services on behalf of 31 governments through a network of 95 visa application centers.

The company operates in 14 locations across Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, Jeddah, Khobar, Abha, Hail, Jubail, Makkah, Jazan, Qassim, Al-Kharj, Tabuk, Madinah, Najran, and Al-Jawf.

Karkaria stated, “We see tremendous potential in artificial intelligence to accelerate and improve visa application procedures. Our partnership with the Responsible AI Institute reflects our strong commitment to using this technology in a reliable and ethical manner, applying the highest security standards.”

“Most importantly, we are committed to using AI in accordance with the regulations and procedures implemented by the governments we work with. We are ready to help our government clients integrate AI into the visa application process,” he added.