Biden Administration Proposes Rules to Curb Investments in China's AI, Tech Sector

Treasure Secretary Janet Yellen addresses the Economic Club of New York luncheon, Thursday, June 13, 2024, in New York (AP)
Treasure Secretary Janet Yellen addresses the Economic Club of New York luncheon, Thursday, June 13, 2024, in New York (AP)
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Biden Administration Proposes Rules to Curb Investments in China's AI, Tech Sector

Treasure Secretary Janet Yellen addresses the Economic Club of New York luncheon, Thursday, June 13, 2024, in New York (AP)
Treasure Secretary Janet Yellen addresses the Economic Club of New York luncheon, Thursday, June 13, 2024, in New York (AP)

The United States Treasury Department has fleshed out a proposed rule that would restrict and monitor US investments in China for artificial intelligence, computer chips and quantum computing.

The fleshed-out draft rule, issued on Friday, stems from President Joe Biden’s August executive order regarding the access that “countries of concern” have to US dollars to fund advanced technologies that could enhance those nations’ military, intelligence, surveillance and cyber-capabilities. The order identified China, Hong Kong and Macau as countries of concern, according to the Associated Press.

The Biden administration has sought to stymie the development of technologies by China, the world’s second largest economy, that could give it a military edge or enable it to dominate emerging sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs).

In addition to the proposed rule, Biden, a Democrat, has also placed a stiff tariff on Chinese EVs, an issue with political implications as Biden and his Republican presidential opponent Donald Trump are both trying to show voters who can best stand up to China, a geopolitical rival and major trading partner.

According to the Financial Times, the regulation — which could be amended following a six-week public comment period — is aimed at restricting the flow of US technology, capital and expertise to groups in China that work with the People's Liberation Army.

The newspaper said it is the latest US effort to make it harder for Chinese groups deemed to be a security threat to gain access to new technology and will complement several sweeping export control packages introduced over the past two years.

Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Paul Rosen said, “This proposed rule advances our national security by preventing the many benefits certain US investments provide—beyond just capital—from supporting the development of sensitive technologies in countries that may use them to threaten our national security.”

The regulation would introduce outright bans on certain investments and require American individuals and organizations to notify the government of other transactions, FT said.

It also includes possible exceptions, including for investments in publicly traded securities or funds. The new rule would affect everything from equity investments to debt financing that is convertible to equity. It would also apply to greenfield investments and joint ventures. But it would exempt investments by limited partners (LP) — endowments and pension funds that seed venture capital and private equity groups — below a certain threshold.

According to FT, the Treasury said the regulation would prevent the exploitation of US investment by countries “seeking to develop sensitive technologies or products that are critical to the next generation of military, intelligence, surveillance, or cyber-enabled capabilities” that pose a threat to the US. But it singled out China as a “country of concern.”

J. Philip Ludvigson, a partner at King & Spalding and a former Treasury official for Investment Security, said “companies and investors are now getting a much better look at what will be expected of them” under the new outbound investment program.

“These added details are particularly important because the private sector will be shouldering the many due diligence and compliance burdens associated with making new investments,” he said.

The Biden administration has been criticized — mostly by Republican lawmakers — for not proposing to ban investment in publicly traded securities.

FT said the effort to screen outbound investment is one of a number of issues that have stoked tensions between the US and China.

In the six months since Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping met in San Francisco, the two countries have stepped up high-level engagement to try to stabilize relations.

But senior US officials from Treasury secretary Janet Yellen to national security adviser Jake Sullivan have been clear with Beijing that Washington will continue to introduce measures to reduce what they view as security threats from China.



IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
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IMF Chief Sees Steady World Growth in 2025, Continuing Disinflation

 People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)
People visit the lantern festival at the Beijing's Wenyuhe Park in Beijing on January 4, 2025, to welcome the upcoming Chinese New Year on January 29, marking the beginning of the Year of the Snake. (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters on Friday.

Georgieva said the US economy was doing "quite a bit better" than expected, although there was high uncertainty around the trade policies of the administration of President-elect Donald Trump that was adding to headwinds facing the global economy and driving long-term interest rates higher.

With inflation moving closer to the US Federal Reserve's target, and data showing a stable labor market, the Fed could afford to wait for more data before undertaking further interest rate cuts, she said. Overall, interest rates were expected to stay "somewhat higher for quite some time," she said.

The IMF will release an update to its global outlook on Jan. 17, just days before Trump takes office. Georgieva's comments are the first indication this year of the IMF's evolving global outlook, but she gave no detailed projections.

In October, the IMF raised its 2024 economic growth forecasts for the US, Brazil and Britain but cut them for China, Japan and the euro zone, citing risks from potential new trade wars, armed conflicts and tight monetary policy.

At the time, it left its forecast for 2024 global growth unchanged at the 3.2% projected in July, and lowered its global forecast for 3.2% growth in 2025 by one-tenth of a percentage point, warning that global medium-term growth would fade to 3.1% in five years, well below its pre-pandemic trend.

"Not surprisingly, given the size and role of the US economy, there is keen interest globally in the policy directions of the incoming administration, in particular on tariffs, taxes, deregulation and government efficiency," Georgieva said.

"This uncertainty is particularly high around the path for trade policy going forward, adding to the headwinds facing the global economy, especially for countries and regions that are more integrated in global supply chains, medium-sized economies, (and) Asia as a region."

Georgieva said it was "very unusual" that this uncertainty was expressed in higher long-term interest rates even though short-term interest rates had gone down, a trend not seen in recent history.

The IMF saw divergent trends in different regions, with growth expected to stall somewhat in the European Union and to weaken "a little" in India, while Brazil was facing somewhat higher inflation, Georgieva said.

In China, the world's second-largest economy after the United States, the IMF was seeing deflationary pressure and ongoing challenges with domestic demand, she said.

Lower-income countries, despite reform efforts, were in a position where any new shocks would hit them "quite negatively," she said.

Georgieva said it was notable that higher interest rates needed to combat inflation had not pushed the global economy into recession, but headline inflation developments were divergent, which meant central bankers needed to carefully monitor local data.

The strong US dollar could potentially result in higher funding costs for emerging market economies and especially low-income countries, she said.

Most countries needed to cut fiscal spending after high outlays during the COVID pandemic and adopt reforms to boost growth in a durable way, she said, adding that in most cases this could be done while protecting their growth prospects.

"Countries cannot borrow their way out. They can only grow out of this problem," she said, noting that the medium-growth prospects for the world were the lowest seen in decades.