Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge Higher as Supply Risks Mount

FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk//File Photo

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading hours on Friday, setting up a third straight weekly jump, as concerns about supply problems from escalating geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions offset signs of weak demand.
Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, rose 15 cents, or 0.2% to $86.54 a barrel by 0020 GMT. The Brent contract for September was also up 0.2% at $85.44 a barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for August delivery rose 24 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.98 a barrel.
Oil prices have shrugged off signs of weak demand in the United States, the biggest oil consuming nation, and rallied higher as cross-border strains between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah escalated. A widening war in the Middle East could draw in countries like Iran, one of the top oil exporters in the region.
The French foreign ministry expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon on Thursday, while Türkiye earlier said it stands in solidarity with Lebanon and called on regional governments' support.
Oil supplies have also come under pressure from weather-related disruptions which could worsen in the coming weeks. Heavy rains have caused Ecuador's production to decline by 100,000 barrels a day over the past week, FGE Energy said on Friday.
The US Gulf Coast, home to a bulk of the country's energy and export infrastructure, could also be hit by adverse weather in the coming days with the US National Hurricane Center tracking at least one weather system that could become a cyclone and headed towards the region.
Brent and WTI futures have gained 1.5% so far on a weekly basis.
On the demand front, rising US crude stockpiles and weak gasoline consumption has kept a ceiling above oil prices. Government data this week showed an unexpected jump in crude inventories in the country as fuel demand weakened.
However, expectations of record travel over the July 4th weekend in the US could lift gasoline demand and help draw stockpiles.



Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
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Türkiye's Central Bank Raises Inflation Forecasts, Vows Tight Policy

FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa
FILED - 24 May 2018, Türkiye, Istanbul: Turkish lira are kept fanned out. Photo: Can Merey/dpa

Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecasts for this year and next to 44% and 21% respectively on Friday, and Governor Fatih Karahan vowed to keep policy tight to propel the disinflation process and hit targets.

The bank's previous inflation report three months ago forecast year-end inflation of 38% in 2024 and 14% next year, Reuters reported. The revision underlines its tougher-than-expected battle against inflation that began with aggressive rate hikes 18 months ago.
Presenting a quarterly update in Ankara, Karahan cited improvement in core inflation trends even as service-related price readings are proceeding slower than anticipated. But even in that sector, inflation is gradually losing momentum, he said.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "As the stickiness in services inflation weakens, the underlying trend of inflation will decline further in 2025."
October inflation remained loftier than expected, dipping only to 48.58% annually on the back of tight policy and so-called base effects, down from a peak above 75% in May.
Monthly inflation - a gauge closely monitored by the bank for signs of when to begin rate cuts - rose by 2.88% in the same period on the back of clothing and food prices.
The bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points between June 2023 and March 2024, to 50%, as part of an abrupt shift to orthodox policy after years of low rates aimed at stoking growth.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in past years was viewed as influencing monetary policy, had supported the previous unorthodoxy. It triggered a series of currency crashes and sent inflation soaring.

Erdogan was quoted on Friday as telling reporters that "no one should doubt" the steady decline in inflation and that economic steps would continue with discipline and determination to ease price pressures.

The central bank warned last month that a bump in recent inflation readings increased uncertainty, prompting analysts to delay expectations for the first rate cut to December or January.

Karahan said the new inflation forecasts were based on maintaining tight policy, adding the bank would do "whatever is necessary" to wrestle inflation down, and pointing to what he called a significant fall in the annual rate since May.

He said the slowdown in domestic demand continues at a moderate pace and the output gap has continued to decline in the third quarter.