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Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
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Euro Rises after France's First-round Vote; Yen Fragile

The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters
The euro rose after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position. Reuters

The euro rose on Monday after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position, though by a smaller margin than projected, while the yen struggled to break away from a near 38-year low.
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday, exit polls showed, although analysts noted the party won a smaller share of the vote than some polls had initially projected.
The euro, which has fallen some 0.8% since President Emmanuel Macron called the election on June 9, was last 0.4% higher at $1.0756, after having touched two-week top earlier in the session.
"They (RN) have actually performed a little bit worse than what was expected," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"As a result of that, we saw the euro rise modestly in early Asian trade just because we might actually get less fears of more expansionary and unsustainable fiscal policy if the far-right party did a little bit worse."
The rise in the euro sent the dollar a touch lower against a basket of currencies, though the greenback was also reeling from data on Friday that showed US inflation cooled in May, cementing expectations the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates later this year.
Market pricing now points to about a 63% chance of a Fed cut in September, as compared to a 55% chance a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Against the dollar, sterling rose 0.11% to $1.2659, while the Aussie dipped 0.07% to $0.66655.
The New Zealand dollar edged 0.12% higher to $0.6098. The dollar index was last 0.11% lower at 105.61, having earlier hit a one-week trough.
"Should inflation continue to behave itself, and incoming data fall in line with the FOMC's forecasts, through the summer, the first 25bp cut remains on the cards as soon as September," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

The yen struggled to gain ground against a broadly weaker dollar and was last 0.1% lower at 161.03 per dollar, standing just a whisker away from a 37-1/2-year low of 161.27 hit on Friday.
The Japanese currency had reversed early gains in the session following revised data that showed its economy shrank more than initially reported in the first quarter.
Separate data on Monday also showed the business mood in Japan's service-sector soured in June as the lower yen pushed costs higher, offsetting a big lift in factory confidence and pointing to consumption weakness.
The yen has already fallen more than 12% this year as it continues to be weighed down by stark interest rate differentials between the US and Japan, with its latest decline to the weaker side of 160 per dollar keeping investors on heightened alert for any intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the currency.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese yuan - also a victim of stark interest rate differentials with the US - fell a marginal 0.04% to 7.3204 per dollar in the offshore market.
The onshore yuan last stood at 7.2679 per dollar.
The Chinese currency drew some support from a private sector survey which showed factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers
grew at the fastest pace since 2021 thanks to overseas orders.
That came after official data over the weekend revealed China's manufacturing activity fell for a second month in June while services activity slipped to a five-month low.
"The PMIs for June were mixed but on balance suggest that the recovery lost some momentum last month," said economists at Capital Economics.
"We think economic activity will continue to hold up relatively well in the coming months. While the latest property stimulus has done little to boost new home sales, fiscal stimulus and strong exports should continue to support growth, at least in the near term."

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Notable Shift in Agriculture, Food World Map Expected in Next Decade

Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
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Notable Shift in Agriculture, Food World Map Expected in Next Decade

Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)
Kashmiri farmers assemble freshly harvested plums to pack the fruit for export, at an orchard on the outskirts of Srinagar, India (EPA)

Emerging economies have increasingly driven global agricultural market developments over the last 20 years and are projected to continue to do so over the next decade, but with regional shifts linked to changing demographics and new economic affluence, according to a report released on Tuesday by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2025 is the key global reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets, and this year’s edition marks the 20th edition of the joint publication.

For two decades, the report has analyzed trends in the demographic and economic drivers of agricultural commodity supply and demand, projected the shifts in production and consumption locations, and assessed the resulting changes in international agricultural trade patterns.

According to the report, seen by Asharq Al-Awsat, a notable shift expected over the coming decade is the increasing role of India, Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa and the declining role played by China.

It said that while China accounted for 28% of growth in global consumption of agriculture and fisheries in the previous decade, its share of additional demand over the coming decade is projected to fall to 11%, attributed not only to a declining population and slower income growth but also to a stabilization of nutrition patterns.

Also, India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to account for 31% of global consumption growth by 2033, driven by their growing urban population and increasing affluence.

Among predominantly low-income regions, the report said Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to contribute a sizeable share of additional global consumption (18%), primarily due to population growth-driven demand for food.

Total agricultural and fisheries consumption (as food, feed, fuel and other industrial raw materials) is projected to grow by 1.1% annually over the next decade, with nearly all of the additional consumption projected to occur in low- and middle-income countries.

The report noted that food calorie intake is expected to increase by 7% in middle-income countries, largely due to greater consumption of staples, livestock products and fats.

Meanwhile, calorie intake in low-income countries will grow at 4%, too slowly to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal target of zero hunger by 2030.

“The Outlook confirms the need to implement strategies that bridge productivity gaps in low- and middle-income countries to increase domestic production and boost farmers’ incomes,” said FAO Director-General QU Dongyu.

For his part, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said, “This Outlook has served as a valuable reference for policy planning, providing a sound evidence base and data for medium-term prospects for agricultural commodity markets. Over the coming decade, the volumes of agricultural commodities traded globally is expected to increase between net exporting regions and net importing regions, but with regional shifts reflecting increased global consumption in India and Southeast Asian countries.”

He added, “Well-functioning agricultural markets, reducing food loss and waste, and more productive and less polluting forms of production will remain critically important for global food security and to ensure rural livelihoods can and do benefit from global agrifood value chains.”

Reducing food loss and waste

According to the report, growth in crop production is projected to be driven primarily by productivity increases on existing land rather than an expansion of the cultivated area, leading to a decline in agriculture’s global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity.

Similarly, it said a significant proportion of the growth in livestock and fish production is also expected to result from productivity improvements, although herd expansions will also contribute to production growth.

Meanwhile, direct emissions from agriculture are therefore projected to increase by 5% over the projection period.
The report said that despite these expected productivity improvements, particularly in least productive countries in Africa and Asia, significant productivity gaps are projected to persist, challenging farm incomes and food security and increasing countries’ requirements for food imports.

Also, technological gaps, limited input use and natural climatic conditions remain some of the key factors underpinning disparities in agricultural productivity, it noted.
The report also said that well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets will remain important for global food security, as 20% of calories are traded and rural livelihoods can benefit from participation in markets and global agrifood value chains.
It then revealed that the underlying causes behind the peaks in international agricultural prices experienced in 2022 are subsiding and real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities are projected to resume their slight declining trend over the next 10 years.

However, this report notes that this may not be reflected in local retail food prices.
Also, this year's Outlook features a scenario that simulates the impact of halving food losses along supply chains and food waste at the retail and consumer levels by 2030.

It said the scenario projects a potential 4% reduction in global agricultural GHG emissions by 2030, distributed relatively evenly across countries regardless of income levels.