JPMorgan Cuts Forecast for Emerging Market Corporate Defaults

FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
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JPMorgan Cuts Forecast for Emerging Market Corporate Defaults

FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A man walks into the JP Morgan headquarters at Canary Wharf in London May 11, 2012. REUTERS/Dylan Martinez/File Photo

Investment bank JPMorgan cut on Monday its forecast of the number of emerging market companies expected to default on their debt, following the biggest improvement in distressed-level market pricing since 2016.
With some defaults out the way and others not having materialized, 2024 is also expected to be the first year since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 that EM corporate default levels fall below the historical average.
The bank lowered its high yield or 'junk'-rated EM corporate default forecast to 3.6% from 4.0% globally and to 2.1% from 2.9% for firms in the closely-followed CEMBI Broad Diversified index, which is run by a separate JPMorgan unit.
"We see lower risks for the rest of the year as some of the default candidates rolled off and others already materialized, while new additions were limited," the bank's analysts said in a research note.
Problems are expected to stay concentrated in China's property sector and among "repeat defaulters" in the likes of Latin America, although the bank also pointed out that there had not been a Ukrainian default yet this year, despite its war.
Regionally, Asia's default forecast was left at 4.5% overall and 2.5% for the CEMBI group. Latin America's was cut by 1% to 4.6% and to 2.8% for the CEMBI.
EM Europe was lowered to 2.0% from 3.0% and to 2.3% for CEMBI BD HY, while Middle East & Africa was nudged up to 0.6% from 0.5%, with the CEMBI at 0.5%.
According to Reuters, the note highlighted how much more optimistic international investors now seemed to be.
The share of EM firms viewed as being in a "distressed" state and at serious risk of default had plunged 7% this year - distress being defined as having a 1,000 basis point risk premium or 'spread' on their bonds.
That is the largest improvement in any calendar year since 2016, JPMorgan's analysts added.
"Assuming 50% of bonds trading at distressed levels may default 12 months forward suggests a 4.6% default rate, but we believe this outcome is unlikely," they said.
This was because more than half the distressed volume is from China, where bond prices are depressed in excess of the actual default risk, they added.



Berlin Eyes Partnership with Riyadh in Expo 2030, Climate Cooperation, Hydrogen Initiatives

Saudi and German flags fluttering - File Photo/Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi and German flags fluttering - File Photo/Asharq Al-Awsat
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Berlin Eyes Partnership with Riyadh in Expo 2030, Climate Cooperation, Hydrogen Initiatives

Saudi and German flags fluttering - File Photo/Asharq Al-Awsat
Saudi and German flags fluttering - File Photo/Asharq Al-Awsat

A senior German official affirmed his country’s commitment to strengthening cooperation with Saudi Arabia across various fields, noting that bilateral trade relations continue to grow steadily, with trade volume reaching around 7 billion Euros.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, German Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Kindsgrab said: “The sectors driving this growth—chemicals, machinery, and transport—reflect the strong industrial connections we share. These are areas where German expertise is making a real difference in Saudi Arabia’s development.”

He added: “Looking ahead, there is much to be excited about. Expo 2030 is an incredible opportunity for us to further deepen our collaboration, showcase the best of what both Saudi Arabia and Germany have to offer, and inspire future generations to continue building on this remarkable partnership.”

German Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Kindsgrab - Asharq Al-Awsat

Renewable Energy

On climate cooperation, the official said: “As for climate cooperation, we have just launched a relevant study on the Saudi labor market in the renewable energy sector, which was reviewed by the National Labor Observatory and discussed with experts of KAPSARC, KaCare and PSU. This is a great example of our close and meaningful partnership, tackling the challenges of today with an eye on the future.”

Blossoming Relations

Kindsgrab noted that Saudi-German relations are truly blossoming, saying: "I am proud to see our partnership becoming deeper and stronger across so many areas. From a personal perspective, it is inspiring to witness the growing bonds between our two countries. These ties span a wide range of sectors, including energy, transport, architecture, health, education and culture—creating a solid foundation for the future.”

“One of the most exciting aspects of our cooperation is in the area of energy transition. German innovation is at the heart of NEOM’s green hydrogen projects, with Thyssenkrupp Nucera playing a key technological role in making the vision of decarbonization of industry a reality,” he affirmed.

“Beyond energy, we’re also seeing significant progress in transport, where Siemens’ delivery of metro wagons helped to shape the modern infrastructure of Saudi cities. And let’s not forget the impact of German architecture in megaprojects such as King Salman Park or the design of Expo 2030, which I believe will be a landmark event for both our countries, ” added Kindsgrab.

“In the health sector, the collaboration with Charité in Berlin is another example of how our nations are working together to improve lives.”

Accelerated Cultural Cooperation

“And now, I am particularly excited to see the acceleration of cultural cooperation, such as the recently launched museum initiative between the Saudi Museums Commission and the Prussian Cultural Heritage Foundation of Germany,” the German ambassador stressed.

“This cooperation emerged as part of our shared efforts to strengthen people-to-people ties and will play an enriching role for the cultural relations, as it includes a loan program for artworks, joint curatorship and training programs to support talent development,” he concluded.