China’s Chance to Rein in its Surplus — or Double Down

FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
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China’s Chance to Rein in its Surplus — or Double Down

FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo

Two clashing narratives have emerged over China’s heady manufacturing expansion led by electric vehicles, renewable energy and high-tech goods. One says it’s benefiting from comparative advantages, including a giant workforce and domestic market. Another says Beijing’s surging exports are a byproduct of distorting policies that threaten the rest of the world.

Regardless of which is right, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his leadership team have an opportunity next week to either double down on their claim China’s manufacturing prowess is a reflection of normal competition, or tilt toward accommodating economic concerns in foreign capitals from Washington to Brussels, Bloomberg reported on Saturday.

The so-called Third Plenum gathering of the Chinese Communist Party, culminating with an expected readout after the confab concludes July 18, takes place against a backdrop of deepening angst over Chinese industrial growth that notably exceeds the nation’s domestic demand. The objections were on full display in a detailed speech this week by the US Treasury’s top international official, Undersecretary for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh.

Failure to embrace new steps to bolster domestic spending and reduce reliance on exports would put China at increasing risk of trade protectionism—regardless of whether US President Joe Biden wins in November, or if Donald Trump—who launched a trade war against China—prevails.

Data out on Friday offered a fresh reminder of the imbalance between China’s productive capacity and its domestic demand, with its monthly trade surplus hitting an all-time high of $99 billion in June.

China’s leadership and its supporters insist that this commercial prowess is thanks to pure economics. Premier Li Qiang last month put it down to the country’s skill in science and technology, and building “a broad stage for enterprises to pursue innovation and upgrade their products.”

Years of investment in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects and churning out engineers has bolstered research and development, strengthening China’s advantage, says Zhao Zhongxiu, president of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

The improved quality and reduced cost of Chinese-made goods appeal to consumers around the world, and it’s not a question of subsidies but the fruit of organic industrial development, he argued in a recent Bloomberg Television interview. “China’s industry has benefited from this comparative advantage.”

But that’s not how Shambaugh sees it. In a speech this week before the Council on Foreign Relations, he cited analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies showing that China spends 5% of its GDP on industrial subsidies—a share that’s ten times bigger than that of the US. It also dwarfs subsidies by Germany, Japan and fellow emerging market Brazil.

“In sectors like semiconductors, steel and aluminum, China alone accounts for between 80% and 90% of global subsidies provided to those industries,” Shambaugh said.

That’s contributed to China racking up a manufacturing-goods trade surplus that’s approaching 2% of world GDP, or roughly twice the share of the famous Japanese surplus in the early 1990s that roiled US-Japan relations, according to data cited by Shambaugh.

The Treasury undersecretary ran through figures illustrating falling rates of capacity utilization and rising numbers of unprofitable companies, all suggesting overcapacity. In areas including the solar energy sector, Chinese firms themselves have expressed concerns about a supply glut.

“Emerging patterns suggest the size of subsidies in China is only increasing, especially at local and provincial levels,” he also said.

That observation puts a premium on the policy signals that Xi and his lieutenants send out at the Third Plenum, which will chart the over-arching course for the next five years.



Saudi-European Partnership Launched between SIDF Investment and Investindustrial  

Officials at the signing ceremony between SIDF Investment Company and Investindustrial Group. (SIDF Investment Company) 
Officials at the signing ceremony between SIDF Investment Company and Investindustrial Group. (SIDF Investment Company) 
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Saudi-European Partnership Launched between SIDF Investment and Investindustrial  

Officials at the signing ceremony between SIDF Investment Company and Investindustrial Group. (SIDF Investment Company) 
Officials at the signing ceremony between SIDF Investment Company and Investindustrial Group. (SIDF Investment Company) 

In a significant step toward strengthening Saudi Arabia’s industrial capabilities, SIDF Investment Co., the financial arm of the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, signed a strategic partnership agreement with European private equity firm Investindustrial on Tuesday.

The alliance aims to attract global institutional capital and advanced industrial expertise to the Kingdom, reinforcing its position as a regional hub for high-value-added manufacturing.

Fahad Al-Naeem, CEO of SIDF Investment Co., described the agreement as a pivotal new chapter in the firm’s investment strategy.

“This partnership with Investindustrial is designed to connect niche industrial specializations and operational know-how with global markets,” he said. “It will support Saudi Arabia’s industrial ecosystem and empower the Kingdom to become both a regional and international platform for manufacturing growth.”

Al-Naeem added that SIDF Investment would leverage its deep local market knowledge to smooth the entry of global manufacturers into Saudi Arabia and integrate them into international supply chains.

Investindustrial Chairman Andrea Bonomi expressed confidence in the alignment between the firm’s investment portfolio and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals. “Many of our investments are well positioned to support the Kingdom’s strategic ambitions, creating long-term partnerships and delivering sustainable value,” he said.

The agreement was signed in the presence of Prince Sultan bin Khalid bin Faisal, Vice Chairman of SIDF Investment Company, and Italy’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Carlo Baldocci.

According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), Investindustrial currently manages more than $19 billion in assets and operates across eight global offices. The firm specializes in medium-sized companies, focusing on sustainable value creation and international expansion.

This partnership reinforces the objectives of Saudi Arabia’s National Industrial Strategy and Vision 2030, both of which seek to position the Kingdom as a global center for advanced manufacturing and integrated supply chains.

The collaboration will focus on joint investments to localize advanced industries within the Kingdom, while enabling Saudi small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to tap into global value chains managed by Investindustrial.

Key sectors targeted by the agreement include machinery and equipment, automation, medical devices, food production, and sustainable consumer goods. The goal is to maximize local added value, stimulate innovation, and enhance competitiveness across the Saudi industrial landscape.

This move is expected to accelerate industrial transformation in the Kingdom, paving the way for increased foreign investment, job creation, and greater integration with international markets.