China’s Chance to Rein in its Surplus — or Double Down

FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
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China’s Chance to Rein in its Surplus — or Double Down

FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Electric cars of Zeekr, a premium brand owned by Chinese automaker Geely, are on display at the Frank-Auto dealership in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2024. REUTERS/Yulia Morozova/File Photo

Two clashing narratives have emerged over China’s heady manufacturing expansion led by electric vehicles, renewable energy and high-tech goods. One says it’s benefiting from comparative advantages, including a giant workforce and domestic market. Another says Beijing’s surging exports are a byproduct of distorting policies that threaten the rest of the world.

Regardless of which is right, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his leadership team have an opportunity next week to either double down on their claim China’s manufacturing prowess is a reflection of normal competition, or tilt toward accommodating economic concerns in foreign capitals from Washington to Brussels, Bloomberg reported on Saturday.

The so-called Third Plenum gathering of the Chinese Communist Party, culminating with an expected readout after the confab concludes July 18, takes place against a backdrop of deepening angst over Chinese industrial growth that notably exceeds the nation’s domestic demand. The objections were on full display in a detailed speech this week by the US Treasury’s top international official, Undersecretary for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh.

Failure to embrace new steps to bolster domestic spending and reduce reliance on exports would put China at increasing risk of trade protectionism—regardless of whether US President Joe Biden wins in November, or if Donald Trump—who launched a trade war against China—prevails.

Data out on Friday offered a fresh reminder of the imbalance between China’s productive capacity and its domestic demand, with its monthly trade surplus hitting an all-time high of $99 billion in June.

China’s leadership and its supporters insist that this commercial prowess is thanks to pure economics. Premier Li Qiang last month put it down to the country’s skill in science and technology, and building “a broad stage for enterprises to pursue innovation and upgrade their products.”

Years of investment in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) subjects and churning out engineers has bolstered research and development, strengthening China’s advantage, says Zhao Zhongxiu, president of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

The improved quality and reduced cost of Chinese-made goods appeal to consumers around the world, and it’s not a question of subsidies but the fruit of organic industrial development, he argued in a recent Bloomberg Television interview. “China’s industry has benefited from this comparative advantage.”

But that’s not how Shambaugh sees it. In a speech this week before the Council on Foreign Relations, he cited analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies showing that China spends 5% of its GDP on industrial subsidies—a share that’s ten times bigger than that of the US. It also dwarfs subsidies by Germany, Japan and fellow emerging market Brazil.

“In sectors like semiconductors, steel and aluminum, China alone accounts for between 80% and 90% of global subsidies provided to those industries,” Shambaugh said.

That’s contributed to China racking up a manufacturing-goods trade surplus that’s approaching 2% of world GDP, or roughly twice the share of the famous Japanese surplus in the early 1990s that roiled US-Japan relations, according to data cited by Shambaugh.

The Treasury undersecretary ran through figures illustrating falling rates of capacity utilization and rising numbers of unprofitable companies, all suggesting overcapacity. In areas including the solar energy sector, Chinese firms themselves have expressed concerns about a supply glut.

“Emerging patterns suggest the size of subsidies in China is only increasing, especially at local and provincial levels,” he also said.

That observation puts a premium on the policy signals that Xi and his lieutenants send out at the Third Plenum, which will chart the over-arching course for the next five years.



Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
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Oil Edges Down amid Bearish Trump Tariff Outlook

A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo
A view shows disused oil pump jacks at the Airankol oil field operated by Caspiy Neft in the Atyrau Region, Kazakhstan April 2, 2025. REUTERS/Pavel Mikheyev/File Photo

Oil prices declined moderately on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs on global economic growth.

Brent crude futures were down 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $69.96 a barrel by 0904 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.06 a barrel.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, with a punitive 50% tariff on exports to the US, after a public spat with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

He has also announced plans for tariffs on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals and his administration sent tariff letters to the Philippines, Iraq and others, adding to over a dozen letters issued earlier in the week including for powerhouse US suppliers South Korea and Japan.

Trump's history of backpedaling on tariffs has caused the market to become less reactive to such announcements, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

"People are largely in wait and see mode, given the erratic nature of policy making and the flexibility the administration is showing around tariffs," Tchilinguirian said.

Policymakers remain worried about the inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs, with only "a couple" of officials at the Federal Reserve's June 17-18 meeting saying they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed.

Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce demand for oil, Reuters said.

Supporting oil prices however was a weaker US dollar in Thursday's Asia trading session, said OANDA senior analyst Kelvin Wong. A weaker dollar lifts oil prices by making it cheaper for holders of other currencies.

US crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Gasoline demand rose 6% to 9.2 million barrels per day last week, the EIA said.

Global daily flights were averaging 107,600 in the first eight days of July, an all-time high, with flights in China reaching a five-month peak and port and freight activities indicating "sustained expansion" in trade activities from last year, JP Morgan said in a client note.

"Year to date, global oil demand growth is averaging 0.97 million barrels per day, in line with our forecast of 1 million barrels per day," the note said.

Additionally, there is doubt the recent increase in production quotas announced by OPEC+ will result in an actual increase in production, as some members are already exceeding their quotas, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

"And others, like Russia, are unable to meet their targets due to damaged oil infrastructure," he said.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to approve another big output boost for September, as they complete both the unwinding of voluntary production cuts by eight members, and the United Arab Emirates' move to a larger quota.