France 'Dangerously Exposed' in Case of Economic Shock, National Audit Office Says

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
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France 'Dangerously Exposed' in Case of Economic Shock, National Audit Office Says

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

France's public finances and its rising deficit are worrying and leave the country "dangerously exposed" in the event of a new, macroeconomic shock, the national public audit office said on Monday.
The audit office, known as the Cour des Comptes, reiterated it was vital for France, the euro zone's second biggest economy, to reduce its public deficit, Reuters reported.
"Due to delays in making real structural reforms, the cost of public debt, which has been exacerbated by recurring deficits and the weight of these deficits, has become more and more expensive," it said.
This "has hampered other spending, hinders the ability to make investments and leaves the country dangerously exposed in case of a new macroeconomic shock," it added.
It said France's public financing programs did not adequately take into account costs linked to policies aimed at protecting the environment, such as using more renewable energy.
Last month, the European Commission said France and six other countries should be disciplined for running budget deficits in excess of EU limits, with deadlines for reducing the gaps to be set in November.
France had a budget gap of 5.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, up from 4.8% in 2022 and above the EU's deficit limit of 3%.
French public debt was 110.6% of GDP in 2023. The EU Commission expects this to increase to 112.4% this year and to 113.8% in 2025 while the EU limit is 60%.
President Emmanuel Macron's government has pledged to meet the EU's deficit limit of 3% by 2027, but the outlook has been complicated by this month's parliamentary election which resulted in a hung parliament.
Credit rating agencies Moody's and S&P Global have warned of negative impacts on the French economy from the political deadlock, where no political party won an outright majority.



Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from concern about demand in top importer China offset support from strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The reaction of the wider markets to the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump was in focus. The US dollar steadied after gains earlier in the session that had weighed on oil, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures were up 3 cents at $85.06 a barrel by 1326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 7 cents to $82.28.

"Chinese data including refinery runs and crude imports are not supportive," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But demand growth elsewhere is still healthy."

Crude fell last week after four weeks of gains as hopes of strong US summer demand were countered by concern over demand in China.

Chinese data on Monday added to that concern. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April to June quarter, official figures showed, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023.

On Friday separate figures showed China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year.

However, the volatile situation in the Middle East continues to provide a geopolitical premium for oil, though ample spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC has limited price support, analysts say.

"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including volatile Israel-Hamas clashes and stalled peace talks, could remain a driving factor for oil prices due to concerns over regional stability," said George Pavel, general manager at Capex.com Middle East.

The oil market is also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers. Iraq's oil ministry said at the weekend that it will compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Market sentiment was supported by a US inflation report for June that came in below expectations, raising hopes for an interest rate reduction, though challenges persisted as China’s crude imports in June declined, highlighting ongoing market difficulties, Pavel added.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later in the day, and is likely to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.