Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from concern about demand in top importer China offset support from strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The reaction of the wider markets to the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump was in focus. The US dollar steadied after gains earlier in the session that had weighed on oil, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures were up 3 cents at $85.06 a barrel by 1326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 7 cents to $82.28.

"Chinese data including refinery runs and crude imports are not supportive," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But demand growth elsewhere is still healthy."

Crude fell last week after four weeks of gains as hopes of strong US summer demand were countered by concern over demand in China.

Chinese data on Monday added to that concern. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April to June quarter, official figures showed, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023.

On Friday separate figures showed China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year.

However, the volatile situation in the Middle East continues to provide a geopolitical premium for oil, though ample spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC has limited price support, analysts say.

"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including volatile Israel-Hamas clashes and stalled peace talks, could remain a driving factor for oil prices due to concerns over regional stability," said George Pavel, general manager at Capex.com Middle East.

The oil market is also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers. Iraq's oil ministry said at the weekend that it will compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Market sentiment was supported by a US inflation report for June that came in below expectations, raising hopes for an interest rate reduction, though challenges persisted as China’s crude imports in June declined, highlighting ongoing market difficulties, Pavel added.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later in the day, and is likely to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.



Aramco Plans Transition Minerals Joint Venture with Ma'aden

 The proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high-concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies - File Photo
The proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high-concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies - File Photo
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Aramco Plans Transition Minerals Joint Venture with Ma'aden

 The proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high-concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies - File Photo
The proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high-concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies - File Photo

Aramco, one of the world's leading integrated energy and chemicals companies, and Ma'aden, the largest multi-commodity mining and metals company in the Middle East and North Africa region, announced on Wednesday the signing of non-binding Heads of Terms, which envisages the formation of a minerals exploration and mining joint venture (JV) in Saudi Arabia.
According to a press release, the proposed JV would focus on energy transition minerals, including extracting lithium from high-concentration deposits and advancing cost-effective direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies. Commercial lithium production is likely to commence by 2027.
This JV is expected to extend Aramco's capabilities into an adjacent sector, leveraging its technological innovation resource and data management skills. It would seek to unlock the potential of the Kingdom's high-value mineral resources, with the aim of helping meet the growing demand for lithium and other transition minerals both domestically and globally. The JV is expected to harness natural resources utilizing a wealth of subsurface data and emerging technologies to advance the Kingdom's economic diversification and energy ambitions, according to SPA.
The statements also added that there is significant potential for the extraction of energy transition minerals in the Kingdom. For example, Aramco has identified several areas with a high lithium concentration of up to 400 parts per million as part of its operations. The JV will benefit from Aramco's expertise and operations, including the use of existing infrastructure, industry-leading drilling operations, and more than 90 years of geological data in its area of operations.
Aramco Upstream President Nasir K. Al-Naimi said, "This announcement reflects Aramco's focus on positively contributing to the global energy transition. The proposed JV will enable the extraction of energy transition minerals, contributing to the growth of more sustainable energy solutions while diversifying our portfolio for a lower-carbon future. We expect that this partnership will leverage the world's leading upstream enterprise to apply significant low-cost advantages, industry experience, technological innovation, accumulated subsurface knowledge and an integrated supply chain ecosystem, with a view to meeting the Kingdom and potentially the world's projected lithium demand."
Ma'aden Senior Vice President of Exploration Darryl Clark stated, "Ma'aden has been undertaking one of the world's largest single-jurisdiction exploration programs across the Arabian Shield to unearth the estimated $2.5 trillion mineral endowment. This proposed JV would enable us to accelerate exploration of the Arabian Platform, combining Aramco's knowledge of the area with Ma'aden's mining and exploration expertise."
Lithium is a fundamental component of the energy transition, essential for production in fast-growing sectors such as electric vehicles, energy storage, and renewables. The global demand for lithium has tripled over the past five years, and its compound annual growth rate is anticipated to exceed 15% annually through 2035. The JV could help meet the Kingdom's forecasted demand for lithium, which is expected to grow twenty-fold between 2024 and 2030, supporting an estimated 500,000 electric vehicle batteries and 110 GW of renewables.
The planned JV, which is subject to customary closing conditions including regulatory approvals, was announced during the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh.