Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Holds its Ground as Chinese Demand Concerns Weigh

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil held its ground on Monday as downward pressure from concern about demand in top importer China offset support from strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraint and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The reaction of the wider markets to the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump was in focus. The US dollar steadied after gains earlier in the session that had weighed on oil, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures were up 3 cents at $85.06 a barrel by 1326 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 7 cents to $82.28.

"Chinese data including refinery runs and crude imports are not supportive," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "But demand growth elsewhere is still healthy."

Crude fell last week after four weeks of gains as hopes of strong US summer demand were countered by concern over demand in China.

Chinese data on Monday added to that concern. The world's second-largest economy grew by 4.7% in the April to June quarter, official figures showed, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2023.

On Friday separate figures showed China's crude oil imports fell 2.3% in the first half of this year.

However, the volatile situation in the Middle East continues to provide a geopolitical premium for oil, though ample spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC has limited price support, analysts say.

"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including volatile Israel-Hamas clashes and stalled peace talks, could remain a driving factor for oil prices due to concerns over regional stability," said George Pavel, general manager at Capex.com Middle East.

The oil market is also broadly underpinned by supply cuts from the OPEC+ group of producers. Iraq's oil ministry said at the weekend that it will compensate for overproduction since the beginning of 2024.

Market sentiment was supported by a US inflation report for June that came in below expectations, raising hopes for an interest rate reduction, though challenges persisted as China’s crude imports in June declined, highlighting ongoing market difficulties, Pavel added.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later in the day, and is likely to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.



Saudi Arabia, IMF, World Bank Stress Int’l Commitment to Syria’s Economic Recovery

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank Group (WBG) President Ajay Banga are seen at Friday's meeting. (SPA)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank Group (WBG) President Ajay Banga are seen at Friday's meeting. (SPA)
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Saudi Arabia, IMF, World Bank Stress Int’l Commitment to Syria’s Economic Recovery

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank Group (WBG) President Ajay Banga are seen at Friday's meeting. (SPA)
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank Group (WBG) President Ajay Banga are seen at Friday's meeting. (SPA)

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank Group (WBG) President Ajay Banga stressed on Friday their commitment to Syria’s economic recovery.

Meeting on the sidelines of the 2025WBG/IMF spring meetings in Washington, they co-hosted a high-level roundtable for Syria, bringing together the Syrian authorities, finance ministers, and key stakeholders from multilateral and regional financial institutions, as well as economic and development partners.

“Building on earlier discussions – including at the Paris Conference on Syria (February 13), the AlUla roundtable on February 16 and Brussels IX conference (March 17) — this event provided a platform for the Syrian authorities to present their ongoing efforts to stabilize and rebuild their country, reduce poverty, and achieve long-term economic development,” they said in a joint statement.

“There was broad recognition of the urgent challenges facing the Syrian economy and a collective commitment to support the authorities' efforts for recovery and development. Priority will be given to efforts to meet the critical needs of the Syrian people, institutional rebuilding, capacity development, policy reforms, and the development of a national economic recovery strategy,” it added.

“The IMF and WBG were called upon to play a key role in providing support in line with their mandates and reflecting shareholders' support, in close coordination with multilateral and bilateral partners,” it continued.

“We welcome the efforts to help Syria reintegrate with the international community and unlock access to resources, to support the authorities' policy efforts, address early recovery and reconstruction needs, and promote private-sector development and job creation,” read the statement. “We also support the Syrian authorities' efforts to strengthen governance and increase transparency as they build effective institutions that deliver for the people of Syria.”

“We extend our gratitude to all participants for their valuable contributions and commitment to support efforts by the Syrian authorities to rebuild Syria and improve the lives of the Syrian people,” it stressed.

The officials will convene again at the annual meetings of the IMF and WBG in October 2025 to monitor the progress achieved and harmonize global efforts in advancing Syria's economic-recovery and prosperity.