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OPEC Receives Compensation Plans from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
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OPEC Receives Compensation Plans from Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan

A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)
A model of oil rigs in front of the OPEC logo (Reuters)

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretariat said Wednesday that it received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia for their overproduced oil volumes in the first half of 2024.
OPEC said in a statement that the combined overproduction from the three countries totaled 2.28 million barrels per day (bpd) during the period.
The Organization added that the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) held on June 2, reiterated the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and the compensation mechanism.
In light of the above, the OPEC Secretariat said it received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia for their overproduced volumes for the first six months of 2024 (January through June), which totaled about 1,184 tb/d for Iraq, 620 tb/d for Kazakhstan, and 480 tb/d for the Russian Federation, according to assessments made by the independent sources approved in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).
As a result, the three countries will trim output by varying amounts on a monthly basis, according to a table issued by OPEC, to compensate through September 2025.
Iraq and Kazakhstan will begin in July with 70,000 b/d and 18,000 b/d, respectively, while Russian cuts will begin in October.
The Platts OPEC+ Survey found Iraq produced 4.22 million b/d in June, against its quota of 4 million b/d. Russia pumped 9.10 million b/d (quota 8.978 million b/d) and Kazakhstan produced 1.54 million b/d (quota 1.468 million b/d) in the month.
Meanwhile, Russia would offset 40,000 bpd of oil overproduction in October-November 2024, while 440,000 bpd of excess output will be offset in March-September 2025, OPEC said.
Russian crude oil production in June exceeded quotas set by the OPEC+ group but the energy ministry pledged on Wednesday to stick to the required output level in July.
It said the production level was assessed by independent sources certified by the OPEC+ deal. These include international consultancies.
The ministry said Russia had sent its schedule on overproduction compensation to the OPEC secretariat, and that its oil output had fallen each month starting from April.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia is producing close to its crude production cut target under the OPEC+ agreement.
Last month, Russia, in a rare admission of oil overproduction, said that it exceeded its OPEC+ production quota in April for “technical reasons.”
Meanwhile, Iraq has blamed high production estimates on its Kurdistan region, over which the government in Baghdad has little control.
“Iraq accounts for the largest share of the compensatory cuts. But Baghdad does not have oversight over production in the Kurdish Regional Government -- and has limited visibility over how much is even produced there,” said Jim Burkhard, Commodity Insights' vice president, oil markets, energy and mobility. “Unless KRG output is cut, then Iraqi federal production will have to be cut further. This would be a real challenge.”

 

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Trump Seeks to Close $1.6 trillion Revenue Gap with Raft of New Tariffs

US President Donald Trump speaks before signing the "Genius Act", which will develop regulatory framework for stablecoin cryptocurrencies and expand oversight of the industry, at the White House in Washington, D.C., US, July 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
US President Donald Trump speaks before signing the "Genius Act", which will develop regulatory framework for stablecoin cryptocurrencies and expand oversight of the industry, at the White House in Washington, D.C., US, July 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
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Trump Seeks to Close $1.6 trillion Revenue Gap with Raft of New Tariffs

US President Donald Trump speaks before signing the "Genius Act", which will develop regulatory framework for stablecoin cryptocurrencies and expand oversight of the industry, at the White House in Washington, D.C., US, July 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo
US President Donald Trump speaks before signing the "Genius Act", which will develop regulatory framework for stablecoin cryptocurrencies and expand oversight of the industry, at the White House in Washington, D.C., US, July 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard/File Photo

The Trump administration this week stepped up its ambitious effort to replace about $1.6 trillion in lost tariff revenue that was eliminated by the Supreme Court's decision to strike down a range of the president's import taxes.

Recovering that lost revenue, which the White House was counting on to help offset the steep, multi-trillion dollar cost of its tax cuts, is possible but will be challenging, experts say. The administration has to use different legal provisions to impose new duties, and those provisions require longer, complex processes that US companies can use to seek exemptions. It could be months or more before it is clear how much revenue the replacement tariffs will yield.

“I wouldn't bet against this administration being able to get back on paper the same effective tariff rate they had before," said Elena Patel, co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. But the new approach will “make it easier for people to contest the tariffs, which is going to put a big asterisk on the revenue until all that is settled.”

On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration will investigate 16 economies — including the European Union — over whether their governments are subsidizing excessive factory capacity in a way that disadvantages US manufacturing. The investigation will also cover China, South Korea, and Japan, Greer said.

In addition, he said there would be a second investigation of dozens of countries to see if their failure to ban goods made by forced labor amounts to an unfair trade practice that harms the United States. That investigation will also cover the EU and China, as well as Mexico, Canada, Australia, and Brazil.

Both investigations are being conducted under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, which requires the administration to consult with the targeted countries, as well as hold public hearings and allow affected US industries to comment. A hearing as part of the factory capacity investigation will be held May 5, while a hearing on the forced labor investigation will occur April 28.

It's a far cry from the emergency law that President Donald Trump relied on in his first year in office, which allowed him to immediately impose tariffs on any country, at nearly any level, simply by issuing an executive order.

Moments after the Supreme Court's ruling, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports under a separate legal authority, but that duty can only last for 150 days. The president has said he would raise it to 15%, the maximum allowed, but has yet to do so. Some two dozen states have already challenged the new tariffs. The administration is aiming to complete its Section 301 investigations before the 10% duties expire.

The effort underscores the importance that the Trump White House has placed on tariffs as a revenue-raiser at a time when the federal government is facing huge annual budget deficits for decades into the future. Previous administrations, by contrast, used tariffs more sparingly to narrowly protect specific industries.

Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, noted that the first investigation covers roughly 70% of imports, while the second would cover nearly all of them.

“That breadth suggests the goal isn’t to address the issues at hand, but instead to recreate a sweeping tariff tool,” she said, The AP news reported.

Trump sees tariffs as a way to force foreign countries to essentially help pay the cost of US government services, even though all recent economic studies find that American companies and consumers are paying the duties, including ones from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and economists at Harvard University. In his state of the union address last month, Trump even touted his tariffs as a potential replacement for the income tax, which would return the United States’ tax regime to the late 19th century.

Trump also wants tariffs to help pay for the tax cuts he extended in key legislation last year. The tax cut legislation is expected, according to the most recent estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, to add $4.7 trillion to the national debt over a decade, while all Trump's duties, including ones not struck down by the court, were projected to offset about $3 trillion — or two-thirds of that cost.

The court’s ruling Feb. 20 that he could no longer impose emergency tariffs eliminated about $1.6 trillion in expected revenue over the next decade, according to the CBO.

Some of Trump's tariffs remain place, including previous duties on China and Canada that were imposed after earlier 301 investigations. The administration has also slapped tariffs on some specific products, including steel, lumber, and cars. Those, combined with the 10% tariff for part of this year, should yield about $668 billion over the next decade, the Tax Foundation estimates.

“It’s going to take a really big patchwork of these other investigations to make up for the (lost) tariffs,” York said.

The administration's efforts are also unusual because they reflect an overreliance on tariffs to bring in more government revenue. Trump has also said the duties are intended to return manufacturing to the United States, and he has used them to leverage trade deals.

“What makes this really different,” said Kent Smetters, executive director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, “it is really the first time tariffs have been mainly used as a revenue raiser.”

Patel, meanwhile, argues that raising revenue can be done more reliably and straightforwardly by Congress. Laws like Section 301 are traditionally intended to be used to address specific trade policy concerns in particular countries.

“It’s not supposed to be there to raise revenue,” she said. “If we want to raise revenue through tariffs, then Congress should impose a broad based tariff.”

Business

Japan, South Korea Say Ready to Act Against FX Volatility

FILE PHOTO: Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama speaks on the day Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers her policy speech in the parliament, in Tokyo, Japan, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama speaks on the day Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers her policy speech in the parliament, in Tokyo, Japan, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
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Japan, South Korea Say Ready to Act Against FX Volatility

FILE PHOTO: Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama speaks on the day Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers her policy speech in the parliament, in Tokyo, Japan, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama speaks on the day Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers her policy speech in the parliament, in Tokyo, Japan, February 20, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

Japan and South Korea expressed concern on Saturday about the rapid declines in their currencies, saying they were ready to act against excessive foreign-exchange volatility.

Finance Ministers Satsuki Katayama of Japan and Koo Yun-cheol of South Korea "expressed serious concern over the recent sharp depreciation of the Korean won and the Japanese yen," they said in a statement after their annual meeting in Tokyo.

The yen and won have slid as mounting tensions from the US-Israeli war on Iran have driven the dollar higher ⁠on safe-haven demand and ⁠battered the currencies of countries heavily reliant on imported oil.

"Furthermore, they reaffirmed that they will closely monitor foreign exchange markets and continue to take appropriate actions against excessive volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates," the statement said.

The yen touched its lowest in 20 ⁠months on Friday and is near the line of 160.00 to the dollar that many in the market think might prompt Japan to intervene to support the currency. The won breached a psychological barrier of 1,500 per dollar this month for the first time since March 2009.

Tokyo and Seoul shared the view that significant volatility had emerged in financial markets, including foreign exchange, Katayama told a press conference after the meeting.

"The Japanese government ⁠is ⁠fully prepared to respond at any time, bearing in mind the impact that currency moves may have on people's livelihoods amid surging oil prices, and I believe both sides share that understanding," she said.

Katayama regularly says Japan is ready to act regarding yen moves, although some policymakers privately say that intervening to prop up the yen now could prove futile, as the flood of dollar demand will only intensify if the war persists.

Business

BP Wins US Approval for Kaskida Project in Gulf of Mexico

FILE PHOTO: 3D-printed oil pump jacks and the British Petroleum (BP) logo appear in this illustration taken March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: 3D-printed oil pump jacks and the British Petroleum (BP) logo appear in this illustration taken March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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BP Wins US Approval for Kaskida Project in Gulf of Mexico

FILE PHOTO: 3D-printed oil pump jacks and the British Petroleum (BP) logo appear in this illustration taken March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: 3D-printed oil pump jacks and the British Petroleum (BP) logo appear in this illustration taken March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

British energy major BP has received approval from the Trump administration to advance its Kaskida project in the Gulf of Mexico, a company spokesperson told Reuters in an emailed statement late ⁠on Friday.

The $5 billion ⁠investment would unlock 10 billion barrels of resources that BP has discovered in the Paleogene fields of the US Gulf, the spokesperson said.

The US Department of ⁠the Interior's approval of Kaskida follows a year-long review of the company's development plan, the statement said, according to Reuters.

Bloomberg News first reported on Friday that the Kaskida project is scheduled to start crude production in 2029. The Kaskida project will follow BP’s 2023 start-up of the Argos project, which ⁠was ⁠its first platform launch in the US. Gulf since 2008 and the first since the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

The explosion of BP's Deepwater Horizon rig in April 2010 killed 11 rig workers and caused $70 billion in damages in the largest oil spill in US history.