Egypt GDP Growth Forecast at 4% in 2024/25 Fiscal Year, IMF Official Says

A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
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Egypt GDP Growth Forecast at 4% in 2024/25 Fiscal Year, IMF Official Says

A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
A worker counts money at a petrol station in Cairo on July 26, 2024. (AFP)

Egypt's economic growth is forecast at 4% in the 2024/25 fiscal year and inflation is expected to fall below 15%, the International Monetary Fund's mission chief for the country said on Tuesday.

In comments to reporters, Ivanna Vladkova Hollar added that talks between the IMF and the Egyptian government about access to climate transition financing from the Fund's Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) would continue in the autumn.

In March, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said the country would seek about $1.2 billion from the RSF.

Egypt can already draw $820 million from its latest 46-month IMF $8 billion loan program after the fund said on Monday it had completed its third review.

Approved in 2022 and expanded this year, the loan program followed an economic crisis marked by high inflation and severe foreign currency shortages.

Hollar said boosting tax revenue was a priority reform issue that would be discussed during the program's fourth review.

"Egypt needs tax resources to be able to spend on priority needs, that is a priority reform that we will be discussing at the time of the fourth review," she said.

Under the program, the outstanding reviews will take place every six months until autumn 2026, with each disbursement currently scheduled at about $1.3 billion, Hollar said in April.



IMF Approves Release of $820 Million for Egypt, Calls for More Reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, US, April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, US, April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
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IMF Approves Release of $820 Million for Egypt, Calls for More Reforms

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, US, April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters building is seen ahead of the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington, US, April 8, 2019. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday it had completed a review allowing Egypt to draw $820 million, saying efforts to restore macroeconomic stability had started to yield results but urging more progress on reining in state-owned enterprises.

The review is the third under Egypt's latest 46-month IMF loan program, which was approved in 2022 and expanded to $8 billion this year following an economic crisis marked by high inflation and severe foreign currency shortages.

Egypt says it has shifted to a flexible exchange rate regime, a policy the IMF said on Monday remains “a cornerstone of the authorities' program.”

“Inflationary pressures are gradually abating, foreign exchange shortages have been eliminated, and fiscal targets (including related to spending by large infrastructure projects) were met,” an IMF statement said, according to Reuters.

“While there has been progress on some critical structural reforms, greater efforts are needed to implement the State Ownership Policy (SOP),” it added.

The Fund called on Egypt to accelerate a program of divestment of state-owned enterprises and carry out reforms to prevent them from using unfair competitive practices.

It also said Egypt, where falling natural gas production has contributed to daily power cuts since last year, needed to contain fiscal risks from the energy sector.

“Restoring energy prices to their cost recovery levels, including retail fuel prices by December 2025, is essential to supporting the smooth provision of energy to the population and reducing imbalances in the sector,” the IMF quoted its Deputy Managing Director Antoinette M. Sayeh as saying.

Egypt raised domestic fuel prices by up to 15% ahead of the IMF review, which had been postponed from July 10.