Smuggling of Iranian Oil Raises Insurance Complications Amid Western Sanctions

A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
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Smuggling of Iranian Oil Raises Insurance Complications Amid Western Sanctions

A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters

A collision between two tankers off Singapore in July raises questions over insurance claims, as one of the vessels previously shipped Iranian oil, potentially complicating payments due to Western sanctions, ship-trackers and industry sources told Reuters.

What Happened?

The Singapore-flagged Hafnia Nile and the Sao Tome and Principe-flagged Ceres I collided and caught fire about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca on July 19.

No oil spill has been detected, only a sheen believed to be from damage to the Hafnia Nile's bunker tank, Malaysia's Marine Department said.

The vessel, which was carrying a cargo of naphtha, suffered engine damage and was secured by tugs at the collision site.

On Thursday, ship manager Hafnia said that an oil boom has been deployed at the stern of the ship and around the damaged area, and two tugboats are dispersing the light oil sheen.

Hafnia said it was working with Malaysian and Singaporean authorities to finalize a towage plan.

What’s the Iranian Oil Connection?

The Ceres I had no cargo at the time of the accident.

However, ship data from providers including LSEG and Kpler show the tanker carried Iranian crude in the past.

Ceres I last loaded Iranian oil via transfer with an Iranian tanker in March off the country's Kharg terminal, subsequently transferring the cargo to two tankers around the Malacca Strait between April 7-9, said Claire Jungman, chief of staff at advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks Iran-related tanker traffic via satellite data.

That cargo reached China on May 29, Jungman said.

Ceres I loaded Iranian oil at least four times since 2019, transporting 8 million barrels, according to analysis by Jungman. The vessel also made four trips carrying Venezuelan oil between 2021 and 2023 totaling 7.5 million barrels, she said.

The China-based owner of the Ceres I listed in shipping databases could not be reached for comment.

China, the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, says it opposes unilateral sanctions, but traders rebrand Iranian oil destined for the country as originating elsewhere. Chinese customs have not reported any imports of Iranian oil since June 2022.

Growing Shadow Fleet

This is believed to be the first such collision in recent years involving a vessel that is part of the so-called shadow fleet of tankers transporting oil cargoes that are subject to Western sanctions, insurance specialists told Reuters.

Government and industry officials have raised concerns over risks posed by the growing shadow fleet.

“The recent collision between Hafnia Nile and Ceres I marks a dangerous precedent,” said Jonathan Moss, head of transport with law firm DWF and an insurance claims specialist.

“Neither vessel nor owners are designated (by Western sanctions), however, if the Ceres I was or had in the past been carrying Iranian crude, their insurers may have reason to decline cover or may need to notify the authorities of a potential sanctions breach,” he said.

What Insurance is in Place?

Ships typically have protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance, which covers third-party liability claims including environmental damage and injury. Separate hull and machinery policies cover vessels against physical damage.

The Hafnia Nile is covered by Norwegian P&I insurer Gard, one of the top 12 such providers covering around 90% of the world’s ocean-going ships.

Gard said it was “actively supporting” its member BW Group, which operates the Hafnia Nile, declining to give specifics.

Typically, a P&I club that is part of an international group of the 12 biggest companies in the sector covers the first $10 million of P&I losses, with members mutually reinsuring each other by sharing claims above $10 million to $100 million. The group holds reinsurance cover up to $3.1 billion.

A person familiar with the matter said the Ceres I has P&I coverage with an international insurer that is not among the leading 12 providers, and hull and machinery coverage from a Chinese insurer.

What Happens with Claims?

Claims in this case could include costs to repair both vessels, towing the Hafnia Nile to a dock, time in dock for repairs and those incurred by the salvage company and tugs as well as ship surveyors.

Typically, each party in a collision instructs its own loss assessor to prepare a report on what happened, establishing liability and then notify its insurers and make a claim.

The claims process itself is typically dealt with by both hull and P&I insurers and will last months if not longer.

Liability will be determined by a court, probably in Asia.

Any claims sent to hull & machinery, cargo and P&I insurers will be complicated by sanctions rules, DWF's Moss said.

Moss said if the hull & machinery or P&I cover had been placed by insurers in the London market or other jurisdictions, sanctions exclusion clauses could be triggered. This could prevent investigation of the claim including the appointment of loss assessors, loss adjusters, fire experts and others, potentially leaving the insured without cover from both direct insurers or reinsurers, Moss added.



Hormuz Under Insurance Pressure as ‘War Premiums’ Violate Int’l Laws

A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
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Hormuz Under Insurance Pressure as ‘War Premiums’ Violate Int’l Laws

A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel at the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)

As military tensions flare in the Strait of Hormuz, another battle is unfolding behind the scenes, one no less dangerous. Insurance companies have emerged as key players shaping the fate of global shipping.

With premiums surging to unprecedented levels, experts told Asharq Al-Awsat the world is approaching a “moment of truth.”

The closure of the waterway threatens not only oil flows, but also bread supplies in the world’s poorest countries, while putting the international legal framework that protects trade at risk of collapse.

War risk insurance premiums in the Strait have jumped to between 1% and 7.5% of vessel value, up from less than 1% before attacks escalated. In practical terms, insurance for a single voyage of a large oil tanker worth $100 million can now range between $2 million and $9 million, compared with about $250,000 before tensions intensified.

Rabih El-Amine, head of the Lebanese Executives Council, said the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a narrow maritime passage, about 21 miles wide, but “it has become the single lung through which the global economy breathes.”

“When that lung is threatened, it is not only oil that suffocates, but food, medicine, and hope as well,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He added that the situation is alarming, not just on a theoretical level, but because its consequences are already affecting companies and markets, with marine insurance premiums rising by 30% to 120% in a matter of months.

When major insurers withdraw entirely from covering vessels forced to transit the Strait, it signals not only higher costs, but a breakdown in the entire system of commercial trust, he warned.

Numbers tell the story

El-Amine said more than 230 loaded oil tankers are currently waiting for clearance to pass through the Strait and are unable to depart.

The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the largest disruption to oil supply in the global market's history. Natural gas prices in Europe have surged by more than 70%, while jet fuel prices have climbed 95%, forcing some European airports to ration fuel.

Some estimates suggest oil could approach $200 per barrel if the closure persists.

Yet El-Amine warned that wheat and fertilizers are an even greater concern. The Gulf region is not only a global energy hub, but also a key supplier for global agriculture, with 35% of global urea exports passing through the Strait.

India imports 70% of its needs from the region. Urea prices have jumped 26% to $585 per ton, a level not seen in years.

“When fertilizer prices rise, bread prices follow,” he said. “The heaviest burden is not borne by European or American farmers, but by poor families in Africa and South Asia, where an estimated 45 million people are now on the brink of acute food insecurity.”

He added that geopolitical crises carry costs that are unevenly distributed, as negotiators debate strategic interests behind closed doors while poorer nations face soaring commodity prices.

He stressed the need for insurers, companies, and governments to shift from crisis response to disaster prevention, calling for a flexible regional insurance system, emergency financing mechanisms, and dialogue channels that prioritize food and energy security over other considerations.

Testing the legitimacy of the international system

Saeed Salam, director of the Vision Center for Strategic Studies, said the current crisis in the strait has evolved beyond a military confrontation into a test of the legitimacy of the international system.

“The precise calculations of global insurance companies have become the real driver of trade flows, outweighing international laws and agreements,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

According to Salam, the escalation that began in late February, followed by Iran’s closure of the strait and attacks on 19 to 20 commercial vessels that did not comply with its transit conditions, has created a state of comprehensive “economic shutdown.”

Insurance costs have risen sharply due to unprecedented risks, making navigation through Hormuz commercially unviable.

Tankers have been forced to seek longer, more expensive alternative routes, while major powers and international actors attempt to secure supply flows through exceptional interventions that have so far failed to restore confidence.

Salam said this reality undermines the maritime legal system established in 1982, exposing a wide gap between the legal right of transit passage and the threats imposed by Tehran, which he said is attempting to reshape the rules of engagement in the region.

He added that the involvement of major powers in providing government guarantees to vessels further complicates the situation, giving commercial shipping a direct political dimension and turning ships into targets in conflicts they have no stake in.

This, he warned, could fragment the global maritime system into competing spheres of influence governed by power and coercion rather than freedom of trade.

At the same time, competition among global powers has extended into the insurance and technological domains.

While Western systems attempt to manage risk at high cost, China has begun offering parallel guarantees for vessels linked to it, potentially dividing the world into rival insurance blocs aligned with geopolitical agendas.

Salam pointed to cyber threats as the most dangerous emerging front. Maritime mines are no longer the only concern, he said, as digital systems that manage ports and control vessels have become vulnerable to disruptions that can halt global supply chains within moments, risks not covered by traditional insurance contracts.

Salam said the failure of the Islamabad talks signals a prolonged period of uncertainty. Companies will need to move beyond financial hedging and adopt hybrid strategies that combine insurance, cybersecurity, and strategic alliances to navigate these risks.

“The era of safe, internationally guaranteed navigation is over,” he said. “The world is entering a new reality where threat itself becomes the governing rule in the Strait.”

He added that companies that survive will be those with high flexibility and the ability to anticipate risks, while passive waiting is a gamble that could push the global system into inevitable stagflation, at a time when securing trade routes has become the only benchmark for sustaining production and growth.


IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
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IMF Says World Is Drifting Toward More Adverse Growth Scenario as Energy Disruptions Continue

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of IMF Research Department, speaks during an economic outlook briefing during the 2026 IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on April 14, 2026. (AFP)

The world may be already drifting towards the International Monetary Fund's "adverse scenario" forecast of weaker 2.5% global growth in 2026 even as it released ‌on Tuesday ‌a more benign ‌reference ⁠forecast of 3.1% growth, ⁠IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

Gourinchas told a news conference that the reference forecast assumes that the conflict is ⁠resolved quickly and that energy ‌prices ‌normalize in the second ‌half of 2026, but acknowledged ‌that the war's developments are fluid and changing daily. He said the reference forecast ‌was "not quite yet" irrelevant.

"I would say that we ⁠are ⁠somewhere in between the reference scenario and the adverse scenario," Gourinchas said.

"And of course, every day that passes and every day that we have more disruption in energy, we are drifting closer towards the adverse scenario."


Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
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Iraq Says Has ‘Understandings’ to Bypass Hormuz Blockade

A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)
A worker rides a bicycle at the Zubair oil field in Basra, Iraq, April 6, 2026. (Reuters)

Baghdad's oil ministry said Tuesday it has "understandings" with the United States and Iran to reduce the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Iraqi oil exports.

The ministry did not elaborate or say when these reported understandings were reached.

But Iran announced earlier this month -- before the fragile ceasefire was reached last Wednesday with the United States -- that it would allow Iraqi shipping to transit the key waterway.

Iraqi oil ministry spokesperson Saheb Bazoun told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) "there are understandings with the American and Iranian sides to circumvent the blockade imposed on the Strait of Hormuz, and with all parties to guarantee exports".

A founding member of the OPEC oil cartel, Iraq normally exports the majority of its crude through the strait, but like other exporters in the oil-rich region, it has been left scrambling for alternative routes.

Bazoun told INA that Iraq was continuing to use secondary export routes, including a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and via Syria's Baniyas port.

Authorities announced earlier this month Iraq has begun exporting crude using tanker trucks through Syria, after resuming oil exports of 250,000 barrels per day through Ceyhan.

The Middle East war has wrought havoc on energy markets, especially after Iran tightened the screws on the Strait of Hormuz -- through which roughly a fifth of global oil and gas passes -- sharply slowing maritime traffic, and reportedly charging transit fees.

Despite the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and after a failed attempt to reach an agreement, Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, sending tremors through global energy markets.

Oil exports account for some 90 percent of Iraq's budget revenues, which plummeted more than 70 percent in March compared with February.