Smuggling of Iranian Oil Raises Insurance Complications Amid Western Sanctions

A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
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Smuggling of Iranian Oil Raises Insurance Complications Amid Western Sanctions

A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters
A handout image shows the RSS Supreme's rigid-hulled inflatable boat in the vicinity of the burning vessels following a fire on two oil tankers about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca, July 19, 2024. Reuters

A collision between two tankers off Singapore in July raises questions over insurance claims, as one of the vessels previously shipped Iranian oil, potentially complicating payments due to Western sanctions, ship-trackers and industry sources told Reuters.

What Happened?

The Singapore-flagged Hafnia Nile and the Sao Tome and Principe-flagged Ceres I collided and caught fire about 55 km northeast of the Singaporean island of Pedra Branca on July 19.

No oil spill has been detected, only a sheen believed to be from damage to the Hafnia Nile's bunker tank, Malaysia's Marine Department said.

The vessel, which was carrying a cargo of naphtha, suffered engine damage and was secured by tugs at the collision site.

On Thursday, ship manager Hafnia said that an oil boom has been deployed at the stern of the ship and around the damaged area, and two tugboats are dispersing the light oil sheen.

Hafnia said it was working with Malaysian and Singaporean authorities to finalize a towage plan.

What’s the Iranian Oil Connection?

The Ceres I had no cargo at the time of the accident.

However, ship data from providers including LSEG and Kpler show the tanker carried Iranian crude in the past.

Ceres I last loaded Iranian oil via transfer with an Iranian tanker in March off the country's Kharg terminal, subsequently transferring the cargo to two tankers around the Malacca Strait between April 7-9, said Claire Jungman, chief of staff at advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, which tracks Iran-related tanker traffic via satellite data.

That cargo reached China on May 29, Jungman said.

Ceres I loaded Iranian oil at least four times since 2019, transporting 8 million barrels, according to analysis by Jungman. The vessel also made four trips carrying Venezuelan oil between 2021 and 2023 totaling 7.5 million barrels, she said.

The China-based owner of the Ceres I listed in shipping databases could not be reached for comment.

China, the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, says it opposes unilateral sanctions, but traders rebrand Iranian oil destined for the country as originating elsewhere. Chinese customs have not reported any imports of Iranian oil since June 2022.

Growing Shadow Fleet

This is believed to be the first such collision in recent years involving a vessel that is part of the so-called shadow fleet of tankers transporting oil cargoes that are subject to Western sanctions, insurance specialists told Reuters.

Government and industry officials have raised concerns over risks posed by the growing shadow fleet.

“The recent collision between Hafnia Nile and Ceres I marks a dangerous precedent,” said Jonathan Moss, head of transport with law firm DWF and an insurance claims specialist.

“Neither vessel nor owners are designated (by Western sanctions), however, if the Ceres I was or had in the past been carrying Iranian crude, their insurers may have reason to decline cover or may need to notify the authorities of a potential sanctions breach,” he said.

What Insurance is in Place?

Ships typically have protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance, which covers third-party liability claims including environmental damage and injury. Separate hull and machinery policies cover vessels against physical damage.

The Hafnia Nile is covered by Norwegian P&I insurer Gard, one of the top 12 such providers covering around 90% of the world’s ocean-going ships.

Gard said it was “actively supporting” its member BW Group, which operates the Hafnia Nile, declining to give specifics.

Typically, a P&I club that is part of an international group of the 12 biggest companies in the sector covers the first $10 million of P&I losses, with members mutually reinsuring each other by sharing claims above $10 million to $100 million. The group holds reinsurance cover up to $3.1 billion.

A person familiar with the matter said the Ceres I has P&I coverage with an international insurer that is not among the leading 12 providers, and hull and machinery coverage from a Chinese insurer.

What Happens with Claims?

Claims in this case could include costs to repair both vessels, towing the Hafnia Nile to a dock, time in dock for repairs and those incurred by the salvage company and tugs as well as ship surveyors.

Typically, each party in a collision instructs its own loss assessor to prepare a report on what happened, establishing liability and then notify its insurers and make a claim.

The claims process itself is typically dealt with by both hull and P&I insurers and will last months if not longer.

Liability will be determined by a court, probably in Asia.

Any claims sent to hull & machinery, cargo and P&I insurers will be complicated by sanctions rules, DWF's Moss said.

Moss said if the hull & machinery or P&I cover had been placed by insurers in the London market or other jurisdictions, sanctions exclusion clauses could be triggered. This could prevent investigation of the claim including the appointment of loss assessors, loss adjusters, fire experts and others, potentially leaving the insured without cover from both direct insurers or reinsurers, Moss added.



OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters
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OPEC Again Cuts 2024, 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecasts

The OPEC logo. Reuters
The OPEC logo. Reuters

OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next on Tuesday, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook.

The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, which earlier this month postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices.

In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month. Until August, OPEC had kept the outlook unchanged since its first forecast in July 2023.

In the report, OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd, Reuters.

China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year-on-year for a seventh consecutive month.

"Diesel has been under pressure from a slowdown in construction amid weak manufacturing activity, combined with the ongoing deployment of LNG-fuelled trucks," OPEC said with reference to China.

Oil pared gains after the report was issued, with Brent crude trading below $73 a barrel.

Forecasts on the strength of demand growth in 2024 vary widely, partly due to differences over demand from China and the pace of the world's switch to cleaner fuels.

OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, sees demand growth of 860,000 bpd in 2024. The agency is scheduled to update its figures on Thursday.

- OUTPUT RISES

OPEC+ has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support prices, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

The group was to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from December but said on Nov. 3 it will delay the plan for a month, as weak demand and rising supply outside the group maintain downward pressure on the market.

OPEC's output is also rising, the report showed, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ pumped 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Iraq cut output to 4.07 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota.

As well as Iraq, OPEC has named Russia and Kazakhstan as among the OPEC+ countries which pumped above quotas.

Russia's output edged up in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd, OPEC said, slightly above its quota.