Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
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Turkish Cenbank Inflation Forecasts Unchanged, Vows Tight Policy

Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya
Business and residential buildings are seen in Sisli district, in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 26, 2024. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

The Turkish Central Bank has left its mid-point inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 unchanged at 38% and 14% respectively, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday, vowing to maintain a tight monetary policy stance.
In a briefing on the bank's latest quarterly inflation report, Karahan said that inflation was projected to fall to 9% by the end of 2026.
"We will decisively maintain our tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved," he said. "By maintaining the cautious stance in monetary policy, we envisage that inflation will decline steadily in the rest of the year."
Turkish annual consumer price inflation eased to 61.78% in July, accelerating what is expected to be a sustained slide. Economists see end-year inflation around 42%, Reuters reported.
The bank has raised its policy rate by 4,150 basis points since June last year, but has kept it unchanged at 50% since March to allow the tightening to have an impact.
Karahan said a tight monetary policy stance could be maintained even when the time comes for rate cuts.
"We need to maintain the tight stance for a long time. This does not mean that interest rates will never be cut. A tight stance can be maintained with rate cuts," he said.
The lira was largely flat at 33.5225 to the dollar after his comments, having touched a record low of 33.6700 earlier this week.
EXPECTATIONS CRITICAL
Karahan said the bank's "decisive" monetary policy stance would support the downtrend in monthly underlying inflation amid rebalancing in domestic demand, real appreciation of the lira and the improvement in inflation expectations.
"The convergence of inflation expectations to the forecast range is of critical importance for disinflation," he added.
In its last quarterly report in May, the bank nudged up its year-end inflation forecast to 38% from a previous 36% due to an unexpectedly large rise in the first four months of the year.
The tightening cycle over the last year marked a stark turnaround after years of unorthodox economic policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who in the past urged low rates despite rising prices.
On July 26, Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay told Reuters that the bank was not even considering a rate-cutting cycle at this time as easing too early could reignite inflation and extend the pain for an economy on the verge of disinflation.
As it seeks to cool the economy, the bank is also rebuilding foreign reserves which had plunged under previous economic programs that had sought to stabilize the lira.



Trump Bails 'Big Progress' in Japan Tariff Talks

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
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Trump Bails 'Big Progress' in Japan Tariff Talks

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reacts as he speaks to reporters after a Japanese negotiator held ministerial talks at the White House regarding US tariffs, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 17 April 2025. FRANCK ROBICHON/Pool via REUTERS

President Donald Trump touted "big progress" in tariff talks with Japan on Wednesday, in one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his barrage of duties on global imports roiled markets and stoked recession fears.

Japan had not expected the president to get involved in Wednesday's talks, viewing them as a preliminary, fact-finding mission, a sign that Trump wants to keep tight control over negotiations with dozens of countries expected over coming days and weeks, Reuters said.

Tokyo had also been hoping to limit the scope of the talks to trade and investment matters. But announcing his involvement early Wednesday, Trump said thorny issues including the amount Japan pays towards hosting US troops were among discussion topics.

"A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!" Trump said in a social media message that contained no details of the discussions.

Opposite Trump was Ryosei Akazawa, a close confidant of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who serves in the relatively junior cabinet position of economic revitalization minister.

Speaking to reporters after the talks, Akazawa gave few details but said the parties had agreed to hold a second meeting later this month and that Trump had said getting a deal with Japan was a "top priority".

Exchange rates, which the Trump administration has said Japan and others manipulate to get a trade advantage, were not part of the talks, Akazawa added.

The dollar strengthened against the yen after his remarks on forex, up around 0.5% on the day. Tokyo denies it manipulates its yen currency lower to get make its exports cheaper.

Akazawa held a 50-minute meeting with Trump at the White House before another session with his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that stretched to almost an hour and a half, according to Japanese readouts of the talks.

Japan's prime minister, who has previously said he won't rush to reach a deal and does not plan to make big concessions, sounded a more cautious tone speaking to reporters later in Tokyo.

"Of course, the negotiations will not be easy going forward, but President Trump has stated that he wants to give top priority to the talks with Japan," Ishiba said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni heads to the White House on Thursday to discuss tariffs imposed on the European Union with Trump, while Bessent has invited South Korea's finance minister to Washington for talks next week.

FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE

Trump has long complained about the US trade deficit with Japan and other countries, saying US businesses have been "ripped off" by trade practices and intentional efforts by other countries to maintain weak currencies.

Japan has been hit with 24% levies on its exports to the United States although these rates have, like most of Trump's tariffs, been paused for 90 days. But a 10% universal rate remains in place as does a 25% duty for cars, a mainstay of Japan's export-reliant economy.

Bessent has said there is a "first mover advantage" given Washington has said more than 75 countries have requested talks since Trump announced sweeping duties on dozens of countries - both friend and foe - earlier this month.

Akazawa declined to comment on the matter, adding only that he strongly requested a revocation of the tariffs and that he believed Washington wanted to secure a deal in the 90-day window.

Washington is hoping to strike deals with countries that would cover tariffs, non-tariff barriers and exchange rates, Bessent has said, though Tokyo had lobbied to keep the latter separate.

Trump earlier this month lambasted Japan for what he said was a 700% tariff on rice, a figure Tokyo disputes. Levies on autos are particularly painful for Japan as they make up nearly a third of shipments to the US, its biggest export market.

Japan hopes that pledges to expand investment in the United States will help to convince the US that the allies can achieve a "win-win" situation without tariffs.

Possible Japanese investment in a multi-billion dollar gas project in Alaska could also feature in tariff negotiations, Bessent said before Wednesday's talks.

"It sounds like the Trump administration really does want a quick deal, which suggests it will be a less substantive deal," said Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory.

"My baseline is that if the US really starts making demands on agriculture and maybe also on some of the auto regulations, it becomes a lot more contentious and hard to do quickly."