Israel Shekel Slips vs Dollar on Iran, Hezbollah Attack Concerns

An Israeli shekel note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo
An Israeli shekel note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo
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Israel Shekel Slips vs Dollar on Iran, Hezbollah Attack Concerns

An Israeli shekel note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo
An Israeli shekel note is seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration/File Photo

Israel's shekel slipped as much as 1.5% against the dollar and Tel Aviv stocks shed more than 1% on Monday, with investors becoming increasingly worried over a possible attack on Israel from Iran and Hezbollah.

The shekel stood at 3.77 per dollar by 1255 GMT, versus a rate of 3.72 on Friday but off an earlier intraday low of 3.78.

Israel shekel implied volatility gauges have risen sharply in recent days, with the three month measure hitting nearly 11%, its highest level since November, data from Fenics showed.

"We mostly remain elevated on Iran, with that also generating some of the volatility," said Mizrahi Tefahot Bank chief strategist Yonie Fanning, Reuters reported.

Since the beginning of August, the shekel has firmed 0.1% against the dollar but the currency has weakened 5% over the past 12 months. Emerging market currencies have struggled more widely this year against a broadly stronger dollar.

"The shekel is struggling to hold on to last week's gains amid rising market concerns that an attack by Iran on Israel could be imminent, based on comments from various officials from both sides," said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.

Israel's currency has been on a roller coaster ride since the start of the month. It had weakened to 3.85 per dollar on Aug. 6 following concerns that Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon would retaliate for Israel killing senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials, but the shekel moved back to 3.72 last week on efforts by the United States, UK, France and Germany to prevent attacks.

On Friday, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander was quoted as saying by local news agencies that Iran was set to carry out an order by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to "harshly punish" Israel over the assassination on July 31 of the leader of Palestinian group Hamas in Tehran.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel, according to a report.

"Expectations of a ceasefire are low and declining and the spectre of an Iranian retaliation remains," said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer.

Tel Aviv share indices were down between 1.25% and 1.5%.



Oil Extends Decline on Surprise US Inventory Builds

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
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Oil Extends Decline on Surprise US Inventory Builds

FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. REUTERS/Turar Kazangapov/File Photo

Oil prices fell for a third straight session on Thursday as unexpected increases in US crude and fuel inventories raised concerns about demand from the world's largest oil consumer while investors eyed renewed Iran-US nuclear talks.

Brent futures edged 16 cents lower to $64.75 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude weakened 10 cents to $61.47.

Both benchmarks fell earlier in the session after US crude and fuel inventories posted surprise stock builds last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as crude imports hit a six-week high and gasoline and distillate demand slipped.

Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels to 443.2 million barrels in the week ended May 16, the EIA said. Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 1.3 million-barrel drawdown.

"The EIA's reported surprise stock builds will have a downward pressure particularly on WTI," said Emril Jamil, a senior analyst at LSEG Oil Research. He added this could further incentivise more US exports to Europe and Asia.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities, said: "While rising US inventories have raised concerns, some investors expect the summer driving season starting after Memorial Day weekend to draw down stocks, limiting further downside."

Both benchmarks lost 0.7% on Wednesday after Oman's foreign minister said the fifth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States will take place on Friday in Rome.

Prices had jumped earlier on Wednesday following a CNN report that US intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, although it was not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.

Iran is the third-largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and an Israeli attack could upset supply from the country.

"Traders remain cautious, avoiding large positions as they assess conflicting signals over US-Iran nuclear talks and a media report of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities," said Kikukawa.

Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said: "Additionally, Ukraine suggested that it would seek harsher sanctions on Russia from the EU, which could further disrupt the flow of Russian oil barrels to global markets."

Ukraine will ask the EU next week to consider big new steps to isolate Moscow, according to a white paper, including seizing Russian assets and bringing in sanctions for some buyers of Russian oil.