OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Highlighting Dilemma over Oct Hike

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28 , 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28 , 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Highlighting Dilemma over Oct Hike

A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28 , 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view shows the logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) outside its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 28 , 2024. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/ File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 citing softer expectations for China, a reduction that highlights the dilemma faced by the wider OPEC+ group in raising production from October.

This is the first cut in OPEC's 2024 forecast since it was made in July 2023, and comes after mounting signs that demand in China has lagged expectations due to slumping diesel consumption and as a crisis in the property sector hampers the economy.

In a monthly report on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said world oil demand will rise by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month.

According to Reuters, there is a wide split in 2024 demand growth forecasts due to differences over China and the pace of the world's transition to cleaner fuels. OPEC is still at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view.

"This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter of 2024 and in some cases for the second quarter, as well as softening expectations for China's oil demand growth in 2024," OPEC said in the report.

OPEC said this year's demand growth was still above the historical average of 1.4 million bpd seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, which caused a plunge in oil use, and that summer travel demand would remain robust.

"Despite the slow start to the summer driving season compared to the previous year, transport fuel demand is expected to remain solid due to healthy road and air mobility."

In the report, OPEC also cut next year's demand growth estimate to 1.78 million bpd from 1.85 million bpd previously, also at the top end of what the industry expects.

Oil last week touched the lowest price this year near $75 a barrel on concerns about Chinese demand and a possible US recession. Prices were steady after the report was released, trading above $80.

OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies such as Russia, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market, most of which are in place until the end of 2025.

On Aug. 1, OPEC+ confirmed a plan to start unwinding the most recent layer of cuts of 2.2 million bpd from October, with the caveat that it could be paused or reversed if needed.

The group still has a month to decide whether to start releasing the oil from October, and will study oil market data in the coming weeks, a source close to OPEC+ said last week.



Eight OPEC+ Alliance Members Move toward Output Hike at Meeting

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
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Eight OPEC+ Alliance Members Move toward Output Hike at Meeting

FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: OPEC logo is seen in this illustration taken, October 8, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/File Photo

Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance will discuss crude production on Saturday, with analysts expecting the latest in a series of output hikes for August.

The wider OPEC+ group -- comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies -- began output cuts in 2022 in a bid to prop up prices.

But in a policy shift, eight alliance members surprised markets by announcing they would significantly raise production from May, sending oil prices plummeting.

Oil prices have been hovering around a low $65-$70 per barrel.

Representatives of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will take part in Saturday's meeting, expected to be held by video.

Analysts expect the so-called "Voluntary Eight" (V8) nations to decide on another output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- the same target approved for May, June and July.

The group has placed an "increased focus on regaining market shares over price stability," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

Enforcing quotas

The group will likely justify its decision by officially referring to "low inventories and solid demand as reasons for the faster unwind of the production cuts", UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP.

But the failure of some OPEC member countries, such as Kazakhstan, to stick to their output quotas, is "a factor supporting the decision", he added.

According to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, an output hike of 411,000 bpd will translate into "around 250,000 or 300,000" actual barrels.

An estimate by Bloomberg showed that the alliance's production increased by only 200,000 bpd in May, despite doubling the quotas.

No effect from Israel-Iran war

Analysts expect no major effect on current oil prices, as another output hike is widely anticipated.

The meeting comes after a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, which briefly sent prices above $80 a barrel amid concerns over a possible closing of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

As fears of a wider Middle East conflict have eased, and given there "were no supply disruptions so far", the war is "unlikely to impact the decision" of the alliance, Staunovo added.

The Israel-Iran conflict "if anything supports a continued rapid production increase in the unlikely event Iran's ability to produce and export get disrupted," Hansen told AFP.