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S&P Global: Saudi Arabia’s Insurance Market Is a Major Driver of Revenue Growth in Gulf Region

 Traffic jam on a street in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 Traffic jam on a street in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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S&P Global: Saudi Arabia’s Insurance Market Is a Major Driver of Revenue Growth in Gulf Region

 Traffic jam on a street in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)
 Traffic jam on a street in Riyadh (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Islamic and Takaful insurance companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council region continue to benefit from favorable growth prospects, mainly driven by high demand for insurance in Saudi Arabia, the largest Islamic insurance market in the region, according to a report by Standard & Poor’s Global credit ratings agency.
Credit Analyst at S&P Global, Emir Mujkic, said: “While we expect overall credit conditions for Islamic insurers will remain stable over the next 6-12 months, consolidation will likely remain a hot topic among smaller and midsize players. About one-fifth of Islamic insurers in Saudi Arabia and about one-third in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) merged in recent years.”
He added that competition is expected to pick up in some markets, with anticipated interest rate cuts starting from September and potentially more volatile capital markets that could lead to “a sharp decline in earnings in 2025 if Islamic insurers fail to maintain their underwriting discipline.”
S&P Global estimated the Islamic insurance sector in the GCC region to expand by about 15 to 20 percent in 2024, with revenues exceeding USD 20 billion.
It also expected the Saudi market to remain the main driver of revenue growth in the GCC region.
“We expect the Saudi market, similar to the past two years, will be the main driver of topline growth in the GCC region. This is because Saudi Arabia, the GCC region’s largest Islamic insurance market, continues to benefit from higher economic growth. At the same time, authorities proceed with reducing the number of uninsured vehicles and have introduced new mandatory medical covers, leading to additional insurance demand and premium income,” the agency said in its report.

The Islamic insurance sector in the GCC region has expanded significantly over the past five years. Revenue growth was particularly strong during 2022-2023, when the sector increased by about 20 to 25 percent annually. This was mainly driven by the market in Saudi Arabia, which expanded by about 27 percent in 2022 and another 23 percent in 2023, the report stated.

 

 

 

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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
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US Tariffs Could Slow China's Growth to 4.5% in 2025

People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)
People walk past a billboard which reads I love Beijing, Happy New Year at 798 art district, ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year, marking the Year of the Snake, in Beijing on January 14, 2025. (Photo by JADE GAO / AFP)

China's economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and cool further to 4.2% in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending US tariff hikes.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9% in 2024 - largely meeting the government's annual growth target of around 5%, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.

But the world's second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.

“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China's growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”

Growth likely improved to 5.0% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter's 4.6% pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9% in July-September, the poll showed.

The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.

China's economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.

Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks' reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan ($1.36 trillion) municipal debt package.

They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.

Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China's moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.

More stimulus on the cards

At an agenda-setting meeting in December, Chinese leaders pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to support economic growth in 2025.

Leaders have agreed to maintain an annual growth target of around 5% for this year, backed by a record high budget deficit ratio of 4% and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, Reuters has reported, citing sources.

The government is expected to unveil growth targets and stimulus plans during the annual parliament meeting in March.

Faced with mounting economic risks and deflationary pressures, top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old “prudent” monetary policy stance for a “moderately loose” posture.

China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to revive the economy, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. It has already had to repeatedly shore up its defense of the yuan currency as downward pressure pushes it to 16-month lows.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected the central bank to cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, its key policy rate, by 10 basis points in the first quarter, leading to a same cut in the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) - the benchmark lending rate.

The PBOC may also cut the weighted average reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by at least 25 basis points in the first quarter, the poll showed, after two cuts in 2024.

Consumer inflation will likely pick up to 0.8% in 2025 from 0.2% in 2024, and rise further to 1.4% in 2026, the poll showed.