Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
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Oil Up 2% but Set to End the Week Lower on Demand Concerns

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant

Oil prices rose 2% on Friday on a softer dollar but were still set to end the week lower as weaker US employment data raised concerns over the health of the world's largest oil consumer, and renewed ceasefire talks in Gaza eased worries about supply.

Brent crude futures rose $1.38, or 1.8%, to $78.60 a barrel at 1220 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.46, or 2%, to $74.47. Brent futures have fallen about 1.4% so far this week, while WTI lost nearly 3%.

Both benchmarks hit their lowest since early January this week, after the US government sharply lowered its estimate of jobs added by employers this year through March, Reuters reported.

That sparked concern about a potential recession in the US hurting demand in the top oil consuming nation, but some analysts say that was an overreaction to the jobs revision.

The market will be closely monitoring a keynote speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell scheduled for 1400 GMT on Friday, with the market widely anticipating a rate cut from next month.

"Alluding to a quarter point cut in September is something already priced in and will receive a lukewarm reaction," PVM Oil analyst John Evans said.

"But a double-decker half point percentage cut goes against how the Fed wishes to manage a controlled move away from tightening," he added.

The US dollar index softened to about 101.45 ahead of the speech, and remained close to the 2024 low of 100.92 it hit on Wednesday, and is headed for a fifth straight week of losses. A cheaper greenback typically lifts demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.

Morgan Stanley said in a note on Friday that a drawdown in oil inventories has provided oil prices with some support.

"For now, the balance in the oil market is tight, with inventories drawing approximately 1.2 million barrels per day in the last four weeks, which we expect will continue in the balance of [the third quarter]," the bank said.

Recent data from China, the top oil importer, has pointed to a struggling economy and slowing oil demand from refiners.
A renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also helped ease supply worries and weighed on oil prices.

US and Israeli delegations started a new round of meetings in Cairo on Thursday to resolve differences over a truce proposal.



Lebanon Central Bank Governor Says 'Working Hard' to Prevent Grey-listing

A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
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Lebanon Central Bank Governor Says 'Working Hard' to Prevent Grey-listing

A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)
A view of Lebanon's Central Bank building in Beirut, Lebanon (File photo: Reuters)

Lebanon's acting central bank governor said on Thursday that his institution was still striving to prevent being placed on a "grey list" of countries under special scrutiny by a financial crime watchdog.

Being added to the Financial Action Task Force's grey list would be another major blow to a country in financial tailspin since 2019, with depositors still locked out of most of their pre-crisis savings and many foreign corresponding banks shunning Lebanon's financial system.

Reuters first reported in May 2023 that Lebanon had received a preliminary evaluation warranting grey-listing, with gaps in several categories including its anti-money laundering measures, transparency on beneficial ownership of firms and legal assistance in asset freezing and confiscation.

After the initial assessment, Lebanon was granted a year to address those gaps before a final ruling that is set to be announced at the FATF's plenary in October of this year.

"The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will issue a decision this coming fall and we are still working hard to prevent Lebanon from being placed on the grey list," acting central bank governor Wissam Mansouri said, addressing a meeting of the Union of Arab Banks in Beirut.

Mansouri said Lebanon had received low scores on measures to confiscate illicit wealth or address money laundering, and that the country needed to develop an action plan to address the remaining gaps.

In 2023, a diplomatic source and a financial source familiar with the matter said that the central bank's special investigations commission was lobbying FATF member states in a bid to change the score.

Being put on the FATF grey list could disrupt a country's capital flows, according to the International Monetary Fund, with banks cutting ties to customers in high-risk countries to reduce compliance costs.

Such a listing also risks reputational damage, credit ratings adjustments, trouble obtaining global finance and higher transaction costs.

In Lebanon's case, the listing would represent an indictment of the financial system at a painful time. The country has been slow to make progress on key reforms requested by the IMF in April 2022 as prerequisites for a deal with the fund. The economy has slowed further after more than 10 months of hostilities between armed group Hezbollah and the Israeli military in parallel with the Gaza war.