Economists Push Back on Harris Price Gouging Plan

 US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as she steps off Air Force Two upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on August 23, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as she steps off Air Force Two upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on August 23, 2024. (AFP)
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Economists Push Back on Harris Price Gouging Plan

 US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as she steps off Air Force Two upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on August 23, 2024. (AFP)
US Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as she steps off Air Force Two upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on August 23, 2024. (AFP)

Kamala Harris's price gouging policy has been criticized by economists and analysts, who say it is an uncompetitive proposal that could end up hurting, and not helping, US consumers.

Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, announced the policy last week as part of a raft of populist proposals which included a $6,000-a-year tax credit for families with newborn children and a $10,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.

If elected President, Harris would work with Congress to advance "the first-ever federal ban on price gouging on food and groceries," her campaign said in a statement.

The proposals would look to set "clear rules of the road" to stop big corporations from running up "excessive" profits on food and groceries, and beef up state and federal regulatory powers to penalize rule-breakers.

While popular with the Democratic base, the price gouging plans elicited a fierce reaction from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who is running against Harris in November's elections.

"Kamala will implement SOVIET Style Price Controls," he wrote in a social media post a day after the proposals were published.

Supporters of the policy say it has been mischaracterized and misunderstood.

"When there is more concentration in an industry, we have seen much greater increases in the profit margins," US Senator Elizabeth Warren said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.

The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment. But several US media organizations, including the Washington Post, reported that the Harris campaign sees the policy as an attempt to elevate existing state-level rules on price gouging to the federal level.

- What price gouging? -

A global inflationary surge at the tail-end of the Covid-19 pandemic contributed to a sharp rise in the cost of everyday items across the United States.

Consumer inflation has eased dramatically since peaking at more than nine percent in 2022. But Americans are still contending with an overall price increase of just over 20 percent since Joe Biden took office, according to data from the US Labor Department.

However, "very little" of that increase is down to price gouging, Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet told AFP.

Instead, Sweet points to a pandemic-fueled supply shock, and an increase in demand for goods and services spurred -- in part -- by generous federal support for households during the pandemic.

"What this gouging does is pivot the blame from the Biden administration, which Harris was part of, to corporations," said Gary Hufbauer, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"It's a pretty successful political argument," he told AFP. "It has no economic basis."

- 'Penny business' -

The retail business is notoriously tough, with profit margins often in the low single digits -- in stark contrast to higher-margin sectors like tech.

"Is there a more competitive space than retail?" Target chief executive Brian Cornell said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that touched on Harris's price gouging plans.

"It is a penny business, and it's a very competitive space, and we provide the value consumers are looking for," he added.

But for people struggling with the cost of living, it's a difficult argument to make.

"People see that gasoline prices are higher than they were a few years ago, food prices are going to be higher than they were a few years ago," said Sweet, from Oxford Economics.

"But we're not going back down to the prices that we saw pre-pandemic," he added.

That's because easing inflation does not translate into lower sticker prices at the grocery store.

Instead, when wages increase faster than inflation -- as they have been for well over a year now -- the cost of those items relative to wages declines over time.

But it's a slow process.

The Federal Reserve appears increasingly confident that it is winning its battle to bring inflation back down to its long-term target of two percent.

On Friday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said "the time has come" to start lowering interest rates, lifting expectations of a rate cut next month.

"There's clear evidence that businesses' pricing power has started to diminish," said Sweet.

"I think over time, as inflation gets back down to the Fed's target, this discussion of price gouging is going to start to fade to the background," he added.



US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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US Jobless Claims, Business Activity Keep Economy on Gradual Cooling Path

The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The sign on a Taco Bell reustaurant advertises "Now Hiring Managers" in Fitchburg, Massachusetts, US, June 12, 2018. REUTERS/Brian Snyder/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits ticked up in the latest week, but appeared to be steadying near a level consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market that should set the stage for the Federal Reserve to kick off interest rate cuts next month.
A slowdown in overall US business activity this month as firms faced diminished ability to push through price increases added to the evidence that the economy is slowing and inflation is downshifting to a degree that should allow Fed officials to focus more attention on the job market, Reuters reported.

With a rate cut now broadly expected next month, interest rates on home loans have already begun dropping, and that helped fuel a larger-than-expected rebound in existing home sales last month.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ended Aug. 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The latest data should continue to allay fears that the labor market is rapidly deteriorating, first raised after a sharper-than-expected slowdown in job growth in July, which also saw the unemployment rate rise to a post-pandemic high of 4.3%.
Indeed, the latest claims data covers the survey week for this month's employment report from the Labor Department, and the leveling off in new filings points to "a small decline in the unemployment rate in August," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in a client note.

"Claims are leveling off on a trend basis, consistent with our view that, while the labor market is softening, it isn't weak enough to warrant anything more than a 25 (basis point) rate cut at the Fed's September meeting," she said.
Fed officials have said they are keenly watching the labor market, aware that waiting too long to cut interest rates could cause serious harm.
Layoffs remain historically low, however, with much of the slowdown in the labor market coming from firms scaling back hiring, trailing an immigration-induced surge in labor supply.

The Fed's 525 basis points worth of rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 are curbing demand.
The US central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range for more than a year. With a first rate cut now widely expected at its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting, the market focus is on how large a reduction it will be - a quarter or a half percentage point.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.863 million during the week ending Aug. 10, the claims report showed.