African Leaders in Beijing Eyeing Big Loans and Investment

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
TT

African Leaders in Beijing Eyeing Big Loans and Investment

People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)
People pass by signage for the Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, 01 September 2024. (EPA)

African leaders descend on China's capital this week, seeking funds for big-ticket infrastructure projects as they eye mounting great power competition over resources and influence on the continent.

China has expanded ties with African nations in the past decade, furnishing them with billions in loans that have helped build infrastructure but also sometimes stoked controversy by saddling countries with huge debts.

China has sent hundreds of thousands of workers to Africa to build its megaprojects, while tapping the continent's vast natural resources including copper, gold, lithium and rare earth minerals.

Beijing has said this week's China-Africa forum will be its largest diplomatic event since the Covid-19 pandemic, with leaders of South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and other nations confirmed to attend and dozens of delegations expected.

African countries were "looking to tap the opportunities in China for growth", Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at consultancy Development Reimagined, told AFP.

China, the world's number two economy, is Africa's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade hitting $167.8 billion in the first half of this year, according to Chinese state media.

Beijing's loans to African nations last year were their highest in five years, research by the Chinese Loans to Africa Database found. Top borrowers were Angola, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria and Kenya.

But analysts said an economic slowdown in China has made Beijing increasingly reluctant to shell out big sums.

China has also resisted offering debt relief, even as some African nations have struggled to repay their loans -- in some cases being forced to slash spending on vital public services.

Since the last China-Africa forum six years ago, "the world experienced a lot of changes, including Covid, geopolitical tension and now these economic challenges", Tang Xiaoyang of Beijing's Tsinghua University told AFP.

The "old model" of loans for "large infrastructure and very rapid industrialization" is simply no longer feasible, he said.

The continent is a key node in Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure project and central pillar of Xi Jinping's bid to expand China's clout overseas.

The BRI has channeled much-needed investment to African countries for projects like railways, ports and hydroelectric plants.

But critics charge Beijing with saddling nations with debt and funding infrastructure projects that damage the environment.

One project in Kenya, a $5 billion railway -- built with finance from Exim Bank of China -- connects the capital Nairobi with the port city of Mombasa.

But a second phase meant to continue the line to Uganda never materialized, as both countries struggled to repay BRI debts.

In central Africa, Western and Chinese firms are racing to secure access to rare minerals.

The continent has rich deposits of manganese, cobalt, nickel and lithium -- crucial for renewable energy technology.

The Moanda region of Gabon alone contains as much as a quarter of known global reserves of manganese, and South Africa accounts for 37 percent of global output of the metal.

Cobalt mining is dominated by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for 70 percent of the world total. But in terms of processing, China is the leader, at 50 percent.

Mounting geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which are clashing over everything from the status of self-ruled Taiwan to trade, also weigh on Africa.

Washington has warned against what it sees as Beijing's malign influence.

In 2022, the White House said China sought to "advance its own narrow commercial and geopolitical interests (and) undermine transparency and openness".

Beijing insists it does not want a new cold war with Washington but rather seeks "win-win" cooperation, promoting development while profiting from boosted trade.

"We do not just give aid, give them help," Tsinghua University's Tang said.

"We are just partners with you while you are developing. We are also benefiting from it."

But analysts fear African nations could be forced to pick sides.

"African countries lack leverage against China," Development Reimagined's Eguegu said.

"Some people... think you can use the US to balance China," he said. "You cannot."



China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
TT

China’s October New Lending Tumbles More than Expected despite Policy Support

 A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)
A masked woman walks at a fashion boutique displaying posters to promote Singles' Day discounts at a shopping mall in Beijing, Monday, Nov. 11, 2024. (AP)

New bank lending in China tumbled more than expected to a three-month low in October, as a ramp-up of policy stimulus to buttress a wavering economy failed to boost credit demand.

Chinese banks extended 500 billion yuan ($69.51 billion) in new yuan loans in October, down sharply from September and falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a fall in new yuan loans to 700 billion yuan last month from 1.59 trillion yuan the previous month and against 738.4 billion yuan a year earlier.

"Corporate financing demand remains weak due to poor profitability," said Luo Yunfeng, an economist at Huaxin Securities. "Credit demand may not pick up soon despite recent central bank policy measures."

The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns but Reuters calculated the October figures based on the bank's Jan-October data released on Monday, compared with the Jan-September figure.

The PBOC said new yuan loans totaled 16.52 trillion yuan for the first ten months of the year.

Household loans, including mortgages, dropped to 160 billion yuan in October from 500 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dipped to 130 billion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters calculations based on central bank data.

Chinese policymakers have been working to arrest further weakness in an economy stuttering in recent months from a prolonged property market downturn and swelling local government debt.

Among their goals is to tackle the side-effects from a mountain of debt left from previous stimulus dating back to the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said China will step up counter-cyclical adjustment and affirm a supportive monetary policy stance, a central bank statement showed on Monday, citing a report Pan delivered to the top legislative body last week.

In late September, the central bank unveiled an aggressive stimulus package including rate cuts, and Chinese leaders pledged "necessary fiscal spending" to bring the economy back on track to meet a growth target of about 5%.

MORE STEPS ON THE CARDS

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilize flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

New measures planned will include sovereign bonds issuance to replenish the coffers of big state banks, and policies to support purchase of idle land and unsold flats from developers, Finance Minister Lan Foan said.

Analysts at OCBC Bank expect the central bank to deliver another cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio in November or December to support the planned bond issuance.

China watchers are skeptical the steps will produce a near-term boost in economic activity as most of the fresh funds will be used to reduce local government debt, but China's central bank said it will continue supportive monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth.

The PBOC also said it will study and revise money supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of the country's money supply.

Trump's election win could also prompt a stronger fiscal package in expectations of more economic headwinds for China. Trump threatened tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, rattling China's industrial complex.

Broad M2 money supply grew 7.5% from a year earlier, central bank data showed, above analysts' forecast of 6.9% in the Reuters poll. M2 grew 6.8% in September from a year ago.

Outstanding yuan loans grew 8.0% in October from a year earlier. Analysts had expected 8.1% growth, the same pace as in September.

The outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October, from 8.0% in September. Acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in TSF.

TSF includes off-balance sheet forms of financing that exist outside the conventional bank lending system, such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies, and bond sales.

In October, TSF fell to 1.4 trillion yuan from 3.76 trillion yuan in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected TSF of 1.55 trillion yuan.