China: Consumer Prices Rise in August, PPI Stuck in Deflation

A woman shops in a supermarket, Beijing, China, Sept. 9, 2024 (EPA)
A woman shops in a supermarket, Beijing, China, Sept. 9, 2024 (EPA)
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China: Consumer Prices Rise in August, PPI Stuck in Deflation

A woman shops in a supermarket, Beijing, China, Sept. 9, 2024 (EPA)
A woman shops in a supermarket, Beijing, China, Sept. 9, 2024 (EPA)

China's consumer inflation accelerated in August to the fastest pace in half a year but the uptick was due more to higher food costs from weather disruptions than a recovery in domestic demand as producer price deflation worsened.

A sputtering start in the second half is mounting pressure on the world's second-largest economy to roll out more policies amid a prolonged housing downturn, persistent joblessness, debt woes and rising trade tensions.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% from a year earlier last month, versus a 0.5% rise in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, but less than a 0.7% increase forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Extreme weather this summer from deadly floods to scorching heat has pushed up farm produce prices, contributing to faster inflation, Reuters reported.

China's affected crops due to various natural disasters totaled 1.46 million hectares in August, state media reported on Monday.

“The higher CPI in August was due to high temperatures and the rainy weather,” NBS statistician Dong Lijuan said in a statement.

Food prices jumped 2.8% on year in August from an unchanged outcome in July, while non-food inflation was 0.2%, easing from 0.7% in July.

“But the rebound was softer than expected and did little to ease deflation concerns. Much of the improvement has been food reflation, which is susceptible to fluctuating weather conditions and capacity changes,” said Junyu Tan, North Asia Economist at Coface.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, was 0.3% in August - the lowest in nearly three and a half years - down from 0.4% in July.

The consumer inflation gauge was up 0.4% month-on-month, compared with a 0.5% increase in July and missing economists' expectations of a 0.5% gain.

In unusually strong comments, China's ex-central bank governor Yi Gang urged efforts to fight deflationary pressure at the Bund Summit in Shanghai last week.

A national campaign to earmark $41 billion in ultra-long treasury bonds to support equipment upgrades and trade-in of consumer goods has proven lukewarm in spurring consumer confidence, with domestic car sales extending declines for a fourth month in July.

“These policies will take time to filter through, so a demand-led reflation is obviously not yet on the horizon,” Tan said.

Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) in August slid 1.8% from a year earlier, the largest fall in four months. That was worse than a 0.8% decline in July and below a forecast 1.4% fall.

“The ongoing deflationary pressures boil down into a broader problem of production surplus, which is still outstripping demand,” said Tan.

China's yuan dipped against the dollar on Monday as long-dated yields hit record lows after monthly inflation data added to economic worries and calls for fresh easing.



Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
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Russia's Central Bank Holds Off on Interest Rate Hike

People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)
People skate at an ice rink installed at the Red Square decorated for the New Year and Christmas festivities, with the St. Basil's Cathedral, left, and the Kremlin, right, in the background in Moscow, Russia, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko)

Russia's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate at 21%, holding off on further increases as it struggles to snuff out inflation fueled by the government's spending on the war against Ukraine.
The decision comes amid criticism from influential business figures, including tycoons close to the Kremlin, that high rates are putting the brakes on business activity and the economy.
According to The Associated Press, the central bank said in a statement that credit conditions had tightened “more than envisaged” by the October rate hike that brought the benchmark to its current record level.
The bank said it would assess the need for any future increases at its next meeting and that inflation was expected to fall to an annual 4% next year from its current 9.5%
Factories are running three shifts making everything from vehicles to clothing for the military, while a labor shortage is driving up wages and fat enlistment bonuses are putting more rubles in people's bank accounts to spend. All that is driving up prices.
On top of that, the weakening Russian ruble raises the prices of imported goods like cars and consumer electronics from China, which has become Russia's biggest trade partner since Western sanctions disrupted economic relations with Europe and the US.
High rates can dampen inflation but also make it more expensive for businesses to get the credit they need to operate and invest.
Critics of the central bank rates and its Governor Elvira Nabiullina have included Sergei Chemezov, the head of state-controlled defense and technology conglomerate Rostec, and steel magnate Alexei Mordashov.
Russian President Vladimir Putin opened his annual news conference on Thursday by saying the economy is on track to grow by nearly 4% this year and that while inflation is “an alarming sign," wages have risen at the same rate and that "on the whole, this situation is stable and secure.”
He acknowledged there had been criticism of the central bank, saying that “some experts believe that the Central Bank could have been more effective and could have started using certain instruments earlier.”
Nabiullina said in November that while the economy is growing, “the rise in prices for the vast majority of goods and services shows that demand is outrunning the expansion of economic capacity and the economy’s potential.”
Russia's military spending is enabled by oil exports, which have shifted from Europe to new customers in India and China who aren't observing sanctions such as a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil sales.