European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Amid Sluggish Economic Growth, Cooling Inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
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European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Amid Sluggish Economic Growth, Cooling Inflation

European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)
European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde (AFP)

The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday has cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 3.5% in response to falling Eurozone inflation and signs that the bloc’s economy risks grinding to a halt.

The decision came while ECB president Christine Lagarde warned that the recovery is continuing to face some headwinds.

She said Thursday’s decision to lower the benchmark deposit rate for the second time this year was “unanimously decided.”

The decision also comes less than a week before the Federal Reserve is widely tipped to begin loosening US monetary policy. The Bank of England, which has reduced rates once so far, meets a day later.

Experts forecast that the ECB will likely lower interest rates again in its upcoming two meetings this year.

The ECB cut once in June and then hit pause in July before going on summer break in August.

The rate-setting council led by Lagarde has to juggle concerns about a disappointing outlook for growth against – which argues for cuts – against the need to make sure inflation is going to reach the bank’s 2% target and stay there – which would support keeping rates higher for a bit longer.

Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro currency fell to 2.2% in August, not far from the ECB’s 2% target, down from 10.6% at its peak in October 2022.

At her post-decision news conference, Lagarde said recent data had confirmed “our confidence that we are heading towards our target in a timely manner.”

Following Lagarde’s comments, the performance of euro to US Dollar rose about 0.27%, selling at 1.1041.

ECB Staff see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, as in the June projections.

Also, inflation is expected to rise again in the latter part of this year, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates.

“Inflation should then decline towards our target over the second half of next year,” Lagarde said.

However, she declined to detail the bank's future rate-cutting path, only saying that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on economic data, without committing to a fixed rate path.

Lagarde said, “We are determined to ensure that inflation returns to our two per cent medium-term target in a timely manner. We will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim.”

She added that the ECB board will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.

“In particular, our interest rate decisions will be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path,” the ECB President said.

Wage Growth

Lagarde said negotiated wage growth will remain high and volatile in 2025. However, overall labor costs are slowing, and the growth of compensation per employee is expected to markedly slow again next year.

She said staff expect unit labor cost growth to continue declining over the projection horizon owing to lower wage growth and a recovery in productivity.

Finally, profits are continuing to partially offset the inflationary effects of higher labor costs.

Lagarde noted that the labor market remains resilient. The unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in July, at 6.4%. At the same time, employment growth slowed to 0.2% in the second quarter, from 0.3% in the first.

Recent survey indicators point to a further moderation in demand for labor, and the job vacancy rate has fallen closer to pre-pandemic levels, the ECB president said.

According to survey indicators, Lagarde said the recovery is continuing to face some headwinds.

“We expect the recovery to strengthen over time, as rising real incomes allow households to consume more. The gradually fading effects of restrictive monetary policy should support consumption and investment,” she said.

ECB staff project that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. This is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.



UK Treasury Chief Heading to China to Revive Suspended Economic, Financial Talks

FILE PHOTO: Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks to the media after a tour of Maidstone Hospital on December 10, 2024 in Maidstone, Britain. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks to the media after a tour of Maidstone Hospital on December 10, 2024 in Maidstone, Britain. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
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UK Treasury Chief Heading to China to Revive Suspended Economic, Financial Talks

FILE PHOTO: Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks to the media after a tour of Maidstone Hospital on December 10, 2024 in Maidstone, Britain. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Chancellor Rachel Reeves speaks to the media after a tour of Maidstone Hospital on December 10, 2024 in Maidstone, Britain. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

Britain's Treasury chief is travelling to China this weekend to discuss economic and financial cooperation between the countries, as the UK's Labour government seeks to reset strained ties with Beijing.
The Treasury said Friday that Rachel Reeves will travel to Beijing and Shanghai and will meet with her Chinese government counterpart, Vice Premier He Lifeng, Reuters reported.
Reeves' trip is expected to revive the China-UK Economic and Financial Dialogue — annual bilateral talks that have been suspended since 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and deteriorating relations in recent years.
A series of spying allegations from both sides, China’s support for Russia in the Ukraine war and a crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong, a former British colony, have soured ties.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and the UK Financial Conduct Authority's chief executive, Nikhil Rathi, are also in the delegation, according to the Treasury. Representatives from some of Britain’s biggest financial services firms will join the trip.
Officials did not provide details, but media reports have said senior executives from HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered were included.
Reeves' visit comes after Foreign Secretary David Lammy travelled to China in October and Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil in November.
The meetings form part of a bid by Starmer, who was elected as leader in July, to strengthen political and economic ties with China, the UK's fifth-largest trading partner.
Officials said Starmer wanted a “pragmatic” approach to working with Beijing on global stability, climate change and the transition to clean energy.
But some in the opposition Conservative Party have criticized his stance and said trade ties should not come at the expense of national security and human rights concerns.
British political leaders and intelligence chiefs have warned repeatedly of the security threats that China poses. Calls to tackle the challenge grew louder last month when it emerged that an alleged Chinese spy had cultivated close ties with Prince Andrew and carried out “covert and deceptive activity” for China's ruling Communist Party, according to officials.
Nevertheless, Lammy told reporters in London on Thursday that “there are many areas of trade that don’t impact on national security.”
He said Reeves “will repeat many of the messages that I took to China.”
“What we’ve said is in this complex relationship with a global superpower, we are guided by three Cs”: challenge, compete and cooperate, for example in areas including health and climate challenges, Lammy added.