Argentina's President Presents 2025 Budget, Vowing Austerity

Argentine President Javier Milei attends a session of the National Congress to present the annual budget in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 15 September 2024. EPA/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
Argentine President Javier Milei attends a session of the National Congress to present the annual budget in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 15 September 2024. EPA/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
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Argentina's President Presents 2025 Budget, Vowing Austerity

Argentine President Javier Milei attends a session of the National Congress to present the annual budget in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 15 September 2024. EPA/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
Argentine President Javier Milei attends a session of the National Congress to present the annual budget in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 15 September 2024. EPA/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni

Libertarian President Javier Milei of Argentina presented the 2025 budget to Congress late Sunday, outlining policy priorities that reflected his key pledge to kill the country's chronic fiscal deficit and signaled a new phase of confrontation with lawmakers.
In an unprecedented move, Milei personally pitched the budget to Congress instead of his economy minister, lambasting Argentina's history of macroeconomic mismanagement and promising to veto anything that compromised his tough slog of tight fiscal policy, The Associated Press reported.
The president's budget proposal followed a week of political clashes in the legislature — where Milei controls less than 15% of the seats — over spending increases that the administration warns would derail its IMF-backed “zero deficit” budget. Opposition parties have sought to pass laws to raise salaries and pensions with inflation to help hard-hit Argentines cope with brutal austerity.
“The cornerstone of this budget is the first truth of macroeconomics, a truth that for many years has been neglected in Argentina: that of zero deficit,” Milei told lawmakers, facing a handful of empty seats as most of the hard-line opposition Peronist bloc, Unión por la Patria, skipped his address. “Managing means cleaning up the balance sheet, deactivating the debt bomb that we inherited.”
Milei's supporters interrupted his speech — packed with his usual libertarian talking points — with whoops and cheers.
It will fall to the opposition-dominated Congress, which controls the government’s purse strings, to approve the final budget. Milei’s political isolation makes matters fraught, setting up weeks of negotiations with political rivals who insist on concessions.
But Milei vowed that nothing would stop him from pressing on with austerity.
“The budget is a declaration of principles,” said Argentine economist Agustín Almada. “Even if there is no compromise from the opposition, Milei will continue pursuing this fiscal contraction.”
If the stroke of a veto pen failed to prevent powerful lawmakers from spending, Milei promised to find other ways to cut down the state.
“We will only discuss the increase in spending when it comes along with an explanation of what we’ll cut to compensate for it,” Milei said.
Over Milei’s past nine months in office, dramatic cuts to public spending — which he says are necessary to restore market confidence in a country ravaged by one of the world's highest annual inflation rates — have racked up a fiscal surplus (0.4% of gross domestic product), something unseen in nearly two decades.
The austerity has also caused deep economic pain in Argentina, with nearly 60% of Argentines now living in poverty, up from 44% in December, according to the Catholic University. Milei has largely balanced the budget by slashing financial transfers to provinces, removing energy and transport subsidies and holding wages and pensions steady despite inflation.
The fight over pensions reached a head last week, when Milei and his allies defeated a bill that would have boosted social security spending in Argentina, compromising the administration's fiscal discipline. The bill swept through both houses of Congress last month but opposition parties ultimately failed to obtain the two-thirds majority needed to override the president’s veto after government lobbying eroded support for the measure.
At news of the bill's rejection Thursday, outraged retirees — who have lost roughly half of their purchasing power due to inflation — poured into the streets of downtown Buenos Aires, where they faced off with riot police spraying tear gas and water canons.
Milei warned that his fiscal shock therapy was not going to be easy. But his administration is betting that the worst has passed. Although Argentina's annual inflation hovers around 237%, Milei has retained popular support by working to keep a lid on monthly inflation, which has dropped to 4% since its peak of 26% last December when he took office.
In an optimistic statement about the budget Sunday, the Finance Ministry said it expected Milei's proposal to result in an annual inflation rate of just 18% by the end of 2025 and yield a 5% economic growth rate. Argentina's economy contracted by more than 3% in the first half of 2024.
But much of Milei's future depends on Congress. The government's pension law victory last week proved short-lived, as lawmakers in the lower house also passed a bill increasing spending on public universities.
Milei has vowed to veto the bill.
Congress dealt Milei another blow last week when it rejected his plan to raise spending on the intelligence services by more than $100 million. Despite all the belt-tightening, Milei has committed to increasing defense spending from 0.5% of GDP to 2.1%, raising the hackles of some lawmakers as his cuts to health and education hit the populace.
Although Milei has repeatedly compromised to get his legislation through Congress, he took a strident tone in Sunday's speech, describing lawmakers as “miserable rats who bet against the country."
Some analysts warned that Milei's exercise in political messaging spelled trouble.
“The image of a half-empty chamber of deputies during the president’s speech is an indication that it will not be easy for the government to pass this budget,” said Marcelo J. García, Director for the Americas at the New York-based geopolitical risk consultancy Horizon Engage. “Again, Milei seems to be prioritizing confrontation over compromise.”



The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.