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Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
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Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have lowered their full-year projections for China's economic growth to 4.7%, after the world's second-largest economy's industrial output slowed to a five-month low in August.

Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China's slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand.

The faltering growth has prompted global brokerages to scale back their 2024 projections to below government's target of around 5%.

Goldman Sachs earlier expected full-year growth for the economy at 4.9%, while Citigroup had forecast growth at 4.8%.

China's industrial output in August expanded 4.5% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.1% pace in July and marking the slowest growth since March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Sept. 15, “We believe the risk that China will miss the 'around 5%' full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing.”

The bank maintained the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%.

However, Citigroup on Sunday trimmed its 2025 year-end forecast for China's GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.5% due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand.

“We believe fiscal policy needs to step up to so as to break the austerity trap and timely deploy growth support,” economists at Citigroup said.

In a separate development, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is making “tangible investments” to ensure the Big Four firm has high quality and sustainable business in China, it said in a memo to staff after Chinese regulators on Friday hit the company's mainland unit with a record penalty.

PwC Zhong Tian LLP was hit with a six-month suspension and a record fine of 441 million yuan ($62 million) on Friday over the firm's audit of failed property developer China Evergrande Group .

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S&P Global: UK Consumers Hit by Worries Over War in Iran

A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
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S&P Global: UK Consumers Hit by Worries Over War in Iran

A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
A man shops in a supermarket in Chanverrie, France, October 16, 2024. REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

British consumers have turned their least confident since the start of last year following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, financial data firm S&P Global said on Monday in an early sign of the potential impact of the conflict on the economy.

S&P Global's Consumer Sentiment Index - based on a survey conducted ⁠March 5-9 - dropped ⁠to 44.1 in March from 44.8 in February, its lowest since January 2025.

"A marked deterioration of consumer sentiment in March means we are seeing the first ⁠concrete signs of the war in the Middle East damaging the UK economy," Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said, according to Reuters.

Households were the most downbeat about their financial prospects since December 2023 and the wariest about making big purchases in 14 months, the firm said.

The Bank ⁠of ⁠England, along with private economists, is watching for the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran on the economy, including any hit to consumer spending as the rise in global energy prices threatens to push up inflation.

The BoE is likely to delay a previously expected interest rate cut on Thursday.

Business

Gold Falls as Inflation Fears Pressure Fed Rate-cut Outlook

AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
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Gold Falls as Inflation Fears Pressure Fed Rate-cut Outlook

AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna
AFP_96 Gold bars weighing 1000 grams each are displayed at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery _Oegussa_ in Vienna

Gold prices dipped on Monday, pressured by concerns that surging oil costs could stoke inflation further and prompt a more hawkish policy stance by major central banks including the US Federal Reserve, dulling the appeal of the non-yielding asset.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,983.17 per ounce, as of 0944 GMT. US gold futures for ‌April delivery ‌fell 1.5% to $4,987.30.

"The gold market has moved its ‌focus ⁠from looking at ⁠the implications of the Hormuz trade closure, and towards implications of longer-term inflation," said Bernard Dahdah, an analyst at Natixis.

"Higher oil prices mean higher inflation and this has repercussions on the Fed. The Fed could pivot, stop cutting rates and that puts downward pressure on gold prices."

Oil held above $100 a ⁠barrel, up more than 40% this month ‌to its highest levels since 2022, ‌after US-Israeli strikes on Iran prompted Tehran to halt shipments through ‌the Strait of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday pressed ‌allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz as Iranian forces continue attacks on the vital waterway amid the US-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week.

The Fed will meet this week ‌for a two-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to hold interest rates steady.

Other ⁠central ⁠banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also meet this week, with the focus on policymakers' assessment of the Iran war on inflation, growth and future policies.

"But we expect central banks to be watchful of inflation risks without making knee-jerk policy rate hikes," UBS said in a note.

"In addition, the longer the US-Iran conflict goes on, the higher the risk of negative economic impacts, which should support hedging demand for gold."

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.6% to $78.46 per ounce. Spot platinum held steady at $2,024.85 and palladium slid 0.5% to $1,542.92.

Business

GASTAT: Saudi Consumer Inflation Eased to 1.7% in February

Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
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GASTAT: Saudi Consumer Inflation Eased to 1.7% in February

Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA
Shoppers are seen at a supermarket in Saudi Arabia. SPA

Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate edged down to 1.7 percent in February, the lowest level since January 2025, according to data from the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT).

The consumer price index eased from 1.8 percent in January to 1.7 percent, GASTAT said Sunday.

The data further showed that housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels rose 4.1 percent in February 2026, mainly driven by a 5.1 percent increase in actual housing rents.

Transport prices also climbed 1.4 percent, supported by a 5.6 percent rise in passenger transport services, while restaurant and accommodation services increased 1.9 percent due to higher accommodation costs.

Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services surged 8.2 percent, largely reflecting a jump in other personal effects, particularly jewelry and watch prices, which rose 29 percent.

According to GASTAT, prices in recreation, sport and culture climbed 1.8 percent, while education services increased 1.4 percent. As for information and communications prices, they edged up 1.1 percent.

Data showed that prices in the insurance and financial services category rose 1 percent.

As for furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance, prices declined 0.9 percent, while prices for food and beverages, as well as clothing and footwear, remained largely stable during the period.

GASTAT said that on a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index last month recorded relative stability compared to January 2026.