Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
TT

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Cut China's 2024 Growth Forecast

Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)
Citizens in the Chinese city of Shanghai follow repairs to power line in the aftermath of Typhoon Bebinca in Shanghai, China (AFP)

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have lowered their full-year projections for China's economic growth to 4.7%, after the world's second-largest economy's industrial output slowed to a five-month low in August.

Weak economic activity in August has ramped up attention on China's slow economic recovery and highlighted the need for further stimulus measures to shore up demand.

The faltering growth has prompted global brokerages to scale back their 2024 projections to below government's target of around 5%.

Goldman Sachs earlier expected full-year growth for the economy at 4.9%, while Citigroup had forecast growth at 4.8%.

China's industrial output in August expanded 4.5% year-on-year, slowing from the 5.1% pace in July and marking the slowest growth since March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday.

Goldman Sachs said in a note dated Sept. 15, “We believe the risk that China will miss the 'around 5%' full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing.”

The bank maintained the country's 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%.

However, Citigroup on Sunday trimmed its 2025 year-end forecast for China's GDP growth to 4.2% from 4.5% due to a lack of major catalysts for domestic demand.

“We believe fiscal policy needs to step up to so as to break the austerity trap and timely deploy growth support,” economists at Citigroup said.

In a separate development, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is making “tangible investments” to ensure the Big Four firm has high quality and sustainable business in China, it said in a memo to staff after Chinese regulators on Friday hit the company's mainland unit with a record penalty.

PwC Zhong Tian LLP was hit with a six-month suspension and a record fine of 441 million yuan ($62 million) on Friday over the firm's audit of failed property developer China Evergrande Group .



Oil Prices Climb on US Output Concerns, Potential Crude Inventory Drop

This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
TT

Oil Prices Climb on US Output Concerns, Potential Crude Inventory Drop

This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)
This photoraph shows an oil well in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on July 23, 2024. (Photo by VANO SHLAMOV / AFP)

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday as the market eyed US output concerns in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine and expectations of lower US crude stockpiles.

Brent crude futures for November were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $73.11 a barrel, as of 0635 GMT. US crude futures for October climbed 53 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.62 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Both contracts settled higher in the previous session as the impact of Hurricane Francine on the output in the US Gulf of Mexico countered Chinese demand concerns ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision this week, which should prove positive for investor sentiment in oil.
More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) on Monday.
"Oil prices managed to recover slightly ... (An) extreme bearish state over the past weeks called for some near-term stabilization, with prices previously touching their lowest level since 2021," said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
"But a weaker-than-expected run in China's economic data lately could still be a source of caution, while the lead-up to the upcoming FOMC interest rate decision may limit some risk-taking," Yeap added, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

The Fed is expected to start its easing cycle on Wednesday, with Fed funds futures showing markets are now pricing in a 69% chance the central bank will cut rates by 50 basis points.

"Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut boosted sentiment across the commodities complex," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that supply disruptions also supported oil markets.
A lower interest rate will reduce the cost of borrowing and can potentially lift oil demand by supporting economic growth.

Investors also eyed an expected drop in US crude inventories, which likely fell by about 200,000 barrels in the week ended Sept. 13, based on a Reuters poll.

Still, lower-than-expected demand growth in China, the world's largest crude importer, have capped price gains. China's oil refinery output fell for a fifth month in August amid declining fuel demand and weak export margins, government data showed on Saturday.